Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 6:01 pm on 22 June 2016.
By the way, I have no objection to Members chewing gum—it works for Chris Coleman; maybe we should all start.
Look, I figure we should concentrate on the Welsh national interest, and particularly in terms of the economy, I have to say that I think many of us are right to be afraid. Because, you know, it’s a fact, isn’t it—the sectoral composition of the Welsh economy is different? We have a much bigger manufacturing sector, agriculture is more important to us, and that leads to a different pattern of trade. We’re one of the only parts of the UK that has a substantial trade surplus with the EU. As we’ve heard from the leader of UKIP, the UK has a massive trade deficit; not true for Wales. Wales per capita has the biggest trade surplus with the EU, and as a result of that it makes a critical positive contribution to the whole of our GDP. I mean, brush down your memories of your economics A-level; you know, Y = C + I + G + (X − M). Net exports: in Wales, we have a surplus, which is equivalent to about 10 per cent of our entire GDP in terms of trade in goods. We’re an export-sensitive economy. If that trade surplus goes down, it has a direct effect on our economic wealth and our prosperity. We’ve seen that already, actually, in 2014. We had a little glimpse of that; exports went down by 11 per cent. What happened? We had—. I won’t take any more interventions from you. What happened? What happened as a result of that? Our GVA growth went down in Wales, right, because there’s a direct relationship between our surplus in trade and our economy as a whole.
Now, nobody can know for certain what will happen to our economy as a result of Brexit. Four different scenarios have been offered by ‘leave’; we don’t know which one it’s going to be. Therein lies the rub. Uncertainty is toxic for business, for investment, particularly for manufacturing where the lead times necessary for investment projects are three to seven years. That’s the key. It’s not the issue of the terms of trade—you know, whether we’ll have to accept tariffs or whether there’ll be a compensating fall in terms of the exchange rate; it’s the uncertainty that will kill the Welsh economy as a result of this Brexit. There haven’t been many experiments when nations have walked away from a successful trading relationship, and there are good reasons why. Why would you? The only example that economists can find is what happened to the Finnish economy when it lost overnight as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union half of its exports to the Soviet Union—a 55 per cent collapse in investment as a result of that—actually, the deepest worst economic contraction to an industrialised country since the 1930s. That’s what could be facing Wales. That’s the economic argument; there are other arguments as well, which are closer to our sense of who we are.
When we sing ‘Hen Wlad fy Nhadau’ in Wales, we sing it as Welsh Europeans. You know, the Celts were the fathers of Europe. We came in, by the way, through Asia Minor, which is now known as Turkey. We created, yes, some of the glories of European civilisation along the way in our march west in La Tène and Hallstatt. Wales itself is a fusion of that Celtic inheritance and Roman civilisation. When we sing that other song, ‘Yma o Hyd’, we mean Europe too, because it contains within it that great creation myth of the Welsh nation that we were founded by Magnus Maximus—Macsen Wledig—a Roman legionary born in Galicia. That red dragon flag that we all waved earlier is a Roman military standard—’draco cocus’, in vulgar Latin that you, Neil Hamilton, and I learnt in Amman Valley—y ddraig goch. And that’s just two of the thousand words of Latin that there are in the Welsh language. We’re not just the original Britons of these islands, we’re the original Europeans too. You’re not just trying to cut us off from a continent, you’re cutting us off from our own history in an act of collective suicide.
If Brexit does happen against our own will, then maybe we can remind ourselves of the words of Raymond Williams:
‘I want the Welsh people—still a radical and cultured people—to defeat, override or bypass…England.’
If England does want to go off into some splendid isolation, then maybe we need a new campaign, ‘rejoin’, but this time as our own nation in Europe.