Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:05 pm on 13 September 2016.
Well, yes, I accept the point about looking at the opportunities. There are opportunities with regard to state aid, potentially, for example. If we’re not part of the current structure then, of course, the constraints that are there now are no longer there—that much is true—but we can’t ignore the risks and think that they’ll happily go away. He mentioned some of the directives that are coming to us, and the landfill directive would have been the one I would’ve chosen probably last, because the landfill directive has made sure that we haven’t seen our country covered with landfill sites. I mean, if he wants to see more of them and he’s willing and more than happy to make that case for the people of Wales—. It’s not a pain-free option. One of the issues that troubled me in the referendum campaign was the suggestion that, somehow, this is all pain free and it’ll all be fine at the end of the day and we don’t have to worry. Well, there’s a lot of work to do in the meantime. Yes, there are countries queuing up, perhaps, to look for free trade agreements with the UK, and naturally they would do, because the UK will be outside the EU; it’s hardly a surprise that they would. We also know the UK is vulnerable, because it has no experience of negotiating free trade agreements at the moment, so we must protect ourselves against others perhaps taking advantage of the UK itself.
He talks about Germany. The reality is that Germany’s export market is huge. Its EU exports, it is true, is more in terms of volume to the UK than the other way around, but a greater percentage of the UK’s exports go to the EU than the other way around, so it is absolutely crucial for us to make sure that we have access to that export market. The Germans will not speak to the UK alone; the Germans will only speak to the European Union—they are part of it. Any deal has to be agreed by the 27 remaining member states, as well as the European Parliament, so let’s not underestimate how difficult this might be.
Now, it seems to me that nobody wants tariffs any more than anybody wants to see a hard border in place between Northern Ireland and the Republic, but, actually, nobody knows how to avoid it coming back, because there would be two parts of an island with different immigration policies—one with free movement and one without, probably. There will be different regulations on both sides of the border. Fisheries access would be restricted. There would be different customs dues. People said to me on the doorstep, ‘We want control of our borders.’ You can’t have that unless you control the border with the Republic. So, there are a number of issues that have to be resolved in Ireland, even though nobody wants to see the border come back. What I want to avoid is that, whilst nobody wants to see the tariffs come back, they happen anyway, because nobody’s put in the work to avoid them coming back. That means there’s a huge amount of work yet to be done; it’s not quite that easy. There’s a huge amount of work yet to be done in order to avoid any kind of imposition of tariffs in the future.