I’m grateful to the Members for bringing this debate here today. I was unable last week to attend the briefing that was given by the British Veterinary Association. However, I did send a representative and I have read the notes very closely. As you will all be aware, I have always approached this subject from an evidence-based position, and I am going to move straight on to the subject of badgers. It is the case that badgers do come into contact with cattle who are infected with bovine TB, and vice versa. It has been, on occasions, proven that there is some connectedness and interaction between those two species.

But what I would like to bring to your attention is that, in 1997, there was an independent scientific body that issued the Krebs report. It did conclude that there was a lack of evidence about whether badger culling would indeed help control the spread of bTB. So, the Westminster Government set up a series of trials to find out, and they were called the randomised badger culling trials—RBCT. They adhered to strict scientific principles and they lasted nearly a decade. They concluded that badger culling could, and I quote,

‘make no meaningful contribution to cattle TB control in Britain.’

So why was that? One of the first things that the trial found out was that in areas of reactive culling—that is, culling after any TB outbreak in cattle—rates of TB were higher than in areas of no culling. Twenty per cent higher, in fact. That informed our understanding of perturbation, when diseased badgers scatter and spread the disease even further. Rather, in order to have even a small reduction in bovine TB, 70 per cent of the badger population in an area no smaller than 150 sq km must be eradicated. This must be done over a very short period of around six weeks every single year. Of course, if you kill too many badgers, you risk local extinction, and that has already happened in the Republic of Ireland.

The BVA paper recommends culling in Wales on this basis, provided that it’s targeted, effective and humane. ‘Humane’ refers to the method of cage trapping and shooting, as used in the RBCT. That does push up the cost-benefit threshold considerably, which leads us to what is happening over the border. In England, any veneer of scientific application or purpose has gone out of the window. The ever-expanding cull flies in the face of Krebs’s evidence. It is an unmitigated disaster and it is a financial black hole. And, it may well be making the very serious problem for famers much worse.

Here in Wales, last December, the former Deputy Minister for Farming and Food announced that, due to a global shortage of BCG vaccine, there had to be a suspension of vaccinating badgers in the controlled area. At that time, we were four years into a five-year project within that intensive action area, which is in my region. I understand and I know that the Cabinet Secretary will reassess our strategy accordingly. But, in so doing, Cabinet Secretary, I urge you to stick with the science. As Lord Krebs recently said of the English—I won’t say ‘trials’, I will say ‘English culls’:

‘Badger culling is a sideshow. The only effective way to stop TB is stopping the spread from cattle to cattle by more testing and a much better test.’

And that also, by the way, explains the increase, as has been outlined earlier, of 50 per cent in the number of herds being identified as being infected, because we have actually screened them more often, more frequently.