2. 2. Statement: EU Transition

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:09 pm on 1 November 2016.

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Photo of Carwyn Jones Carwyn Jones Labour 3:09, 1 November 2016

It’s a strong point to make, and it is not the case that it’s going to be easy to get agreement from 30 different bodies to a deal. It’s just not going to happen. Spain has got the UK over a barrel when it comes to Gibraltar; it’s seen its opportunity and it will argue for co-sovereignty. That’s one country that has to be persuaded amongst, well, 27 different countries, two regional Parliaments and two institutions. We know that there are other countries that just don’t see the UK as important in terms of their trade. Some countries will—Germany will, that’s probably fair to say. Other countries won’t see the UK as important at all, and persuading them that, somehow, they should sign up to a deal that they will see as favouring the UK unreasonably is going to be a major challenge. As I say, I think we should not kid ourselves that people think the UK is owed a living by other countries. That’s not the way they see it—not the way they see it. This is not the nineteenth century. We have to be realistic and get the best deal that we can for the UK, given the fact that the EU is eight times our size, and we have to make sure we get the best deal when dealing with a much larger organisation.

Another point I think it’s worth making: in terms of the complexity of all this, if you look at it, actually, in some ways, it’s more complex to see the UK leave the EU than it would have been for Scotland to become independent, because, at least in those circumstances, Scotland and the rest of the UK would still have been part of the EU. Actually, there would be no trade negotiations as part of that process, but there will be trade negotiations as part of this process. So, this is how complicated this is—in some ways, it’s more complicated than Scottish independence, and it’s a point that I have to make to Members. We must not think this is easy, we must not think the world owes us a living. We cannot appear arrogant over this, more than anything else, but we have to make it work. We have to make it work, and I think all Members in this Chamber understand that.

If we look at it sensibly, we need to have an idea now of what the general principles are the UK Government will want to follow. It won’t be good enough for the UK Government just to turn up and say, ‘This is what we’re going to do, like it or lump it.’ I will not be silent publicly if that happens, but I don’t want to start from a position of looking to undermine the UK Government’s position. But the UK Government cannot expect to demand the support of the devolved administrations without consulting the devolved administrations properly. The best scenario would be, in March, for all of the Governments of the UK to have reached a common negotiating position, to show that unity and show that strength. I don’t think the UK Government wants to go into a negotiation with the rest of the EU with Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland publicly critical of the UK. It’s not where I’m starting from; I don’t want to be in that position. It’s hugely important then that we get to a point where the UK Government produces its hand, as we have done, and Scotland has done and as Northern Ireland has done, so that we can make a success of the next two years.