Questions now from party spokespeople. The spokesperson for the Welsh Conservatives, Russell George.

Thank you, Presiding Officer. Cabinet Secretary, I welcome the 1.6 per cent rise in Welsh exports. However, it is concerning to me, on looking deeper into the figures, that trade to North America has significantly declined from over a quarter share of Welsh exports in 2012 to just 15 per cent in 2016. In the same period, the volume of exports has declined by 15 per cent. Furthermore, over the last four years, the First Minister has made a number of high-profile trips to the US, the latest being in September. Have they been a success?

Yes, they have, because data show that the return on the investment of those trade missions is approximately 40:1. So, a great success in terms of the return for the taxpayer. We are planning two more trade missions to the United States in the spring of next year, to San Francisco and to New York. I think it’s quite clear that the additional £5 million that has been secured for Visit Wales, as a consequence of the budget agreement with Plaid Cymru, will also help in promoting Wales in the key market of the United States, but I would say to Members that the United States is a vast country and we do have to focus our resources and activities in key areas. So, it may well be that we focus in specific cities or states of the United States as we look to exploit opportunities to increase our export potential there.

I’m pleased to hear that there will be further trade missions to the US—that’s welcome—but of course what’s important is the success of those missions. The Welsh Government is, of course, currently developing a new economic strategy, which is even a greater priority, I would say, given the vote to leave the European Union. We’ve already seen a decline in exports to North America. Whilst there is a modest growth in exports overall, your Government, I would say, should be proactively working to seek out those new opportunities. So, will you therefore commit to making this a top priority in 2017 and incorporate the boosting of trade with North America within that strategy?

Yes, indeed. Exports, we’ve said on a number of occasions, are going to be a key feature of our work in the coming years. We will be intensifying both investment and activity in this area, not least because currency exchange rates clearly give us a competitive advantage in many markets at present. I should say as well that, in terms of exports, the figures that the Member has pointed to show that only five of the 12 UK countries and English regions had increases in export values. Wales was one of them. The remaining seven saw falls against this period with Scotland having the largest percentage decrease. Wales is well positioned to build on recent success in exports and I intend to do just that.

While I also recognise the EU is an important market for Wales, there should be a warning, of course, of an over-reliance on trading with one area. From 2012 to 2016, the EU share of the Welsh export market has risen from 44 per cent to 67 per cent. That accounts for two thirds of Welsh exports. The UK average, by contrast, is 49 per cent, which is about where it was four years ago before North American trade started to decline. The President-elect has indicated a willingness to trade with the UK. What discussions have you had about this and will you act on that invitation and make sure Wales is at the front of that queue?

I’ve had no conversations as of yet with the President-elect and no invitation to attend any trade events in the United States. Of course, we would consider them, should they come forward. Yes, the President-elect has given indications that he would wish to forge favourable agreements with the United Kingdom. That said, throughout the entirety of the campaign that he’s just fought, he was saying that he wishes to draw up the drawbridges, rather than reach out to partners around the world. So, we’ll need to wait until January to actually see whether his willingness or his seeming enthusiasm to embrace some of the United Kingdom is actually genuine.

UKIP spokesperson—David Rowlands.

Diolch, Lywydd. Turning to some more mundane matters, but nonetheless important in their own right, Cabinet Secretary, could the Cabinet Secretary inform us as to who is responsible for clearing litter from the trunk roads in Wales?

Yes, that would be Welsh Government.

Well, I thank you for your answer, Cabinet Secretary, but the reason for my inquiry is that the general condition of the verges of such roads is, quite frankly, appalling. Nick Ramsay raised the matter of the A449 with your predecessor, and a temporary clean-up took place. However, soon after, it returned to its usual deplorable condition. Now, I know that the Cabinet Secretary is fully committed to the tourism industry in Wales, so given that many of these trunk roads either traverse or lead into areas of outstanding natural beauty, does the Cabinet Secretary not agree that it is an intolerable state of affairs, especially as the plethora of flotsam and jetsam is not only environmentally unacceptable but also extremely hazardous?

I would agree that littering is utterly unacceptable, but the way that we respond to such a problem is not just to clear up litter, it’s to persuade people to change their attitudes, their behaviours and their culture. Indeed, under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, it’s imperative that we find ways to avoid such problems emerging in the future. So it’s not just for us to clear up on trunk roads; we are having a very difficult time to find the resources to do just that, just as local authorities are struggling, given this continued period of austerity. But, longer term, we need people to change their behaviours in order to keep our landscapes clearer and more attractive, not just for visitors but for people who live in them.

Well, again, I thank the Cabinet Secretary for his reply, but this is such a fundamental part of what we want to sell Wales as to the tourists who come here. And to see the verges in the absolute state that they are, that does not encourage or give a good impression of Wales generally. Something ought to be done about this, and quite urgently.

Quality of place is absolutely essential in ensuring people have pride in the place that they live, and I would agree with the Member that it does need to be improved in terms of not just trunk road verges, but streets in general and town centres. Many local authorities are having difficulty with an increase, in some parts, of littering and anti-social behaviour. But the key, the long-term key, to improving our built environment is in ensuring that people change their behaviours, and we are trying to do just that. Indeed, right from primary school upwards, with the introduction of the new curriculum, we hope that people will become more responsible and respectful adults and stop littering.

I find it particularly frustrating in my constituency, where there is a well-known fast food outlet on the side of one of our trunk roads. We often see considerable litter being dropped, but I have to say that that particular outlet is very responsible in actually paying for, and often organising, litter-picking sessions. Of course, they can’t go on the trunk road, but in the surrounding areas. And I would like to see more corporate responsibility of that nature right across our towns and cities and, indeed, along roadways, where there is currently a problem with littering, particularly with fast food.

Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Adam Price.

Diolch, Lywydd. It was expected for the regional gross value added figures to be released today by the Office for National Statistics, but they’ve been postponed for a week—perhaps realising the Welsh Government have already had a tough enough week with yesterday’s PISA results. However, I would like to bring to the attention of the Cabinet Secretary a report released by Ernst and Young this week on regional growth projections for the next three years. Slower growth is predicted across the UK, with an average UK growth of 1.5 per cent. Wales, however, is even worse, with growth expected to be at just 1 per cent—growth in GVA over the next three years. If you factor in this projected growth rate, then Welsh GVA would then fall below the 70 per cent average, compared to the UK GVA, for the first time ever in recorded economic history. Isn’t this the Maginot line, if you like, of Welsh economic policy—a line that should never be crossed? We don’t currently have an upper target from the Welsh Government in terms of GVA. We did once; it was 90 per cent. It was abolished. Could we at least have a lower target, a national poverty line that we should never accept? And if that line—I hope it never happens—is crossed, will we have a public commitment that someone in Welsh Government will take ultimate responsibility for it?

Well, the Member makes a number of important points. First of all, I was very disappointed that those statistics were delayed. It was out of our control, as the Member is aware, but I was very much hoping that they would be published this week. I can’t comment on what I have seen within the statistical release. That said, projections are based often on science that subsequently is proven to be wrong. We know that from a number of recent elections and referenda. What we can do is rely on existing figures and they show that, in terms of GVA per head, since devolution, Wales had the fifth highest increase compared to the 12 UK countries and English regions. Since the recession, GVA per head has increased more quickly in Wales than the UK. In terms of GVA per hour worked, we had the fourth largest percentage increase in GVA. In terms of the index of production in the last four quarters, production output has increased more quickly in Wales than in the UK as a whole: 3.9 per cent to 1 per cent. Based on our performance to date, I think we should actually be a little more positive about the predictions. But that said, we cannot be complacent, which is why we’ve worked this year relentlessly to attract high-value companies such as Aston Martin to Wales, whilst also investing in facilities such as the Menai science park and the advanced manufacturing institute to grow and expand existing indigenous companies and to ensure that they can collaborate to compete at the highest level.

I’m all for optimism and enthusiasm and passion. I admire that in the Cabinet Secretary, but we have to remind ourselves, don’t we, that we’re at 71.3 per cent of the UK average already. The first step in turning around our abysmal economic performance is a reality check on where we currently are.

As he devises his new economic strategy, could I urge him to read the recent CBI report on unlocking regional growth? One of the key areas that they focus on there is the issue of transport infrastructure and the absolutely critical role that it plays. Could I say to him that I think this is one of the key constraints now in our economic performance? You only have to read social media at the moment on a daily basis to see our creaking transport infrastructure: passengers on Arriva Trains Wales complaining about appalling experiences. Just this morning, Jac Larner at 8.58 a.m. said,

‘For 2nd time this year my train has caught fire. I suppose it’s good it’s only been twice, but I feel this is still too often’.

Leon Williams: ‘This morning. Literally no exaggeration but this is the first time in 11 months that I’ve had a seat on my commute to Neath Port Talbot.’

Hannah, yesterday:

‘Someone passed out again on the Bridgend - Aberdare 07.42 train.’

Would the Cabinet Secretary accept that this is now a national crisis and we need urgent action by the Welsh Government? This is completely unacceptable. No-one in any country should have to put up with this.

It is unacceptable the way that some people are having to tolerate public transport at the moment and we have taken a very firm line with the operators. We’re also taking a firm line with Network Rail, who have, in recent years, hugely underfunded the Welsh route network. We also believe firmly that now is the time to devolve all responsibility for rail services, to make sure that we can get the investment where it is needed. In the longer term, once we have the new franchise in place, we will have a new and transformed rail service. But it’s important in the meantime that there is the capacity to be able to meet travellers’ needs. For that reason, the Welsh Government has and will continue to invest in services and we are exploring ways, as I outlined in my statement on 9 November, to increase rolling stock provision as well.

One of the major problems that we are finding right now is that there is simply too little money being spent removing trees from tracksides. This is a responsibility that is not ours. It’s non-devolved and it’s unacceptable, because what it’s led to are cancelled trains, particularly—I know that Mark Isherwood has raised this in the past—in the north, and also on the Valleys lines. It’s causing significant problems in terms of delays and cancelled services, and capacity problems. It’s down to one thing: underfunding of the rail network. I’ll be meeting with Network Rail tomorrow to outline, again, my disappointment at the lack of action. But it is absolutely right that, as we move forward, we get devolution of responsibilities for this and we invest where travellers expect us to invest.

The other area that is highlighted by the CBI report is skills. It’s absolutely vital that we get workplace training right, and we can only do that if we talk to the employers. There’s a worrying lack of information and clarity at the moment about how the apprenticeship levy is going to be operated. The UK Government did hold an initial consultation, Scotland and Northern Ireland have held their own formal consultation, but there’s been precious little, actually, from the Welsh Government. There was a skills consultation some two years ago. Can we have some real dialogue with our employers?

The quid pro quo, where compulsory training levies have ever been introduced, whether it’s through the old industrial training boards, or actually on the continent, is that they are led by employers—in that case by the chambers of commerce—and yet we’re having none of that engagement. Surely we should be introducing a system whereby, if we’re taking money from employers, we should at least be asking them where we should be investing it.

This relates largely to the skills strategy and the work that the Minister for Skills and Science has been undertaking. Sometimes projections do come right; we predicted that this might happen today, this question, so I’ll pass you over to the Minister.

Oh, we have a tag team. That’s a new innovation. I’m all for that. [Laughter.]

We’re going to go into gambling as a consequence of this being right.

Julie James.

Diolch, Lywydd. The apprenticeship levy is very much in my portfolio, and so I thought it would be helpful, if—

You can sit down Cabinet Secretary. [Laughter.]

I thought it would be helpful, if this question did come up, if I was in a position to say what the latest position is. The Treasury have announced a further £13.7 million, having recalculated the settlement slightly differently from the basis of the original settlement, which was included in the Barnett formula. They imply that this is all extra money, but that in fact is not the position. Previously I’ve gone through the statistics, and I’ll do it again. Basically—[Interruption.] No, it’s very straightforward, as I said. Basically, what’s happened is we got £114 million for Wales as a result of the Barnett formula for the apprenticeship levy, and £90 million of that was immediately removed because it had been placed in the baseline for the Barnett formula, and £90 million is the reduction in apprenticeship money funding in England as a result of the move between the apprenticeship levy and general taxation. There’s been an announcement of another £13.7 million as a result of the recalculation of the formula, based on the moneys arising from Wales, after a lot of lobbying from Wales, from both businesses and from the Government. However, the situation still is that this is an employer tax levied by HMRC without consultation with the Welsh Government.

HMRC, as you know, is not devolved to Wales in any way, and the money directly contradicts our apprenticeship levy. We have been very clear that the consultation that we undertook extensively, just before the levy was announced, and which was well received by all employers in Wales, stands. We have delayed the announcement of our final apprenticeship policy, which I’m hoping to do towards the end of December, as a result of trying to figure out exactly what’s happening. But the bottom line is that this money is not coming back to Wales in the form that the employers would like. It is a tax, pure and simple. Taxes are not devolved, as you know, and neither is it hypothecated in England either—taxes are not hypothecated—so it’s just the current Government’s policy to spend it in this way. That could change tomorrow. We will be holding fast to our well-tried, well-tested and well-consulted-on apprenticeship programme.