Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:14 pm on 7 December 2016.
Diolch yn fawr, Lywydd. I do welcome this debate today. It provides us with the opportunity to respond to what can only be described as a missed opportunity by the UK Government. The Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government issued a written statement on the day of the autumn statement setting out the implications for Wales. He also had the opportunity in the Chamber yesterday to hear what the autumn statement means for the Welsh budget and our future spending plans. But I do think today’s debate provides another chance—and clearly that’s been demonstrated this afternoon—to reflect on the impact of the UK Government’s austerity measures on Wales.
We have had nearly a decade of the UK Government’s austerity policies, and they’re clearly not working. Alongside the autumn statement, as has been said this afternoon, the OBR downgraded many of its key forecasts for the remainder of this Parliament, and the future promises no great improvement. We can look forward to a budget remaining in deficit until beyond the end of this Parliament, with little or no improvement in living standards. If anything, we can expect a rise in inflation, continued pressure on pay awards and a continued deterioration of living standards. As Huw Irranca-Davies has said, austerity has deepened inequalities.
If you then follow on, the powerful points that were made by Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England—I would also like to repeat some of the points he made in Liverpool. He said that the UK has recorded only a mediocre growth in the economy and negligible growth in productivity. Meanwhile, the budget remains in deficit and Government debt has increased enormously. He spoke about the impact on people’s lives, as Huw Irranca-Davies has today, and he said:
‘When combined with low growth of incomes and entrenched in intergenerational inequality, it is no wonder that many question their prospects.’
But yes, Nick Ramsay, you’re right, in moving this motion, that the one area that offers some promise is the boost to infrastructure investment—something, of course, the Welsh Government’s been arguing for strongly for many years. We will make good use of the additional £442 million capital between 2016-17 and 2020-21. This injection does go some way to restore the cuts the UK Government has made to our capital budget over recent years. However, our capital budget will still be 21 per cent lower in real terms in 2019-20 than it was in 2009-10.
It is disappointing that the UK Government hasn’t taken the opportunity to end austerity. At a time of rising inflation with an ageing population, let’s look at the changes to our revenue budget. An extra £35.8 million between 2016-17 and 2019-20—negligible. They don’t begin to make up the deep cuts we’ve seen to our public spending over recent years. And by the end of the decade, our revenue DEL will have been reduced by 8 per cent in real terms, equivalent to around £1 billion less for vital public services in Wales. Furthermore, as we debated yesterday, there are £3.5 billion of cuts in waiting for 2019-20, threatening more cuts to the Welsh budget. This perpetuates the uncertainty we’re facing at a time when providing stability and certainty is more important than ever.
And what about other key areas where we have been seeking progress—together, I would say, across this Chamber—to help drive forward our economy? I agree with Adam Price, in moving your amendment; it’s disappointing that those key initiatives and levers, such as the devolution of air passenger duty and the importance of the Swansea tidal lagoon, were not supported in the autumn statement—another missed opportunity. Nothing was said, but I very much welcome the fact that the Welsh Conservatives are supporting our call, as they did in the cross-party Silk commission. There’s support for the call, across this Chamber and across parties, for the devolution of air passenger duty.
Always, when we speak with a united voice, we have a stronger, more powerful case. And backing Mark Drakeford, as he has, in all important negotiations—as you say, Nick Ramsay, in terms of the fiscal framework—and of course arguing, as he is today at a JMC Europe on our needs in terms of the impact of Brexit.
Ahead of the autumn statement, Mark Drakeford did write to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury to reinforce the Welsh Government’s support for the Swansea bay tidal lagoon and I am glad that both the Swansea city deal and the north Wales growth deal were both acknowledged in the autumn statement. We now have to see the UK Government move forward in terms of response.
But, Llywydd, the Welsh Government has taken a different approach to austerity. It was set out in our draft budget, a budget for stability and ambition, which was passed yesterday in this Chamber. Despite years of austerity, we’re striving hard to protect our essential public services—and with results. As Rhianon Passmore has said, the people of Wales need certainty and real action.