Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 6:00 pm on 11 January 2017.
And I fear what’s being said in the US. I don’t believe for one moment that the US will strike a deal with the UK that is anything other than advantageous to the US. The US President was elected on a platform of protectionism. He is not going to give the UK any favours. It is naïve to think that that is what the US will do.
I also think we need to approach these negotiations in a spirit of co-operation—not a spirit of what I call imperial arrogance, thinking that the world will fall at our feet. Of course the EU exports more in terms of cash to the UK. It would be odd if it didn’t: it’s eight times bigger than the UK. But the reality is that more than 40 per cent of UK exports go into the EU, and it’s only 8 per cent the other way. So, actually, the EU market is far more important to the UK in terms of the percentage of exports than the UK is to the European market. Many European producers know they’ll still be able to sell into the UK, even with tariffs, because people don’t have an alternative. If you want to buy a car, you’ve got little alternative than to buy a car that is at least partially manufactured abroad. It’s not as if there is an alternative in terms of a British-manufactured car. So, this idea that this is the nineteenth century and the world will fall at Britain’s feet is the wrong approach as far as Britain is concerned. Britain is a big economy, but it’s not a big market. We have to bear that in mind as we work out what our position should be.
Timescale: now, it’s been suggested that free trade agreements are one potential way forward. I’m not convinced of that. The leader of UKIP himself said it took five years to negotiate a deal with South Korea. We only have two years. It’s impossible to negotiate a free trade agreement with anybody within two years. I’ve spoken to officials from other Governments who’ve done this, and they all say to me it takes two years to agree to have the discussions in the first place. To have a free trade agreement in two years makes the UK look laughable, when people actually suggest that. Seven years, 10 years—that is the timescale for free trade agreements. So, the transitional arrangements post March 2019 are hugely important. We can’t go off the edge of a cliff and then try and climb back up it. There has to be a bridge between the final outcome and March 2019. Thought hasn’t been given to that.
I listened carefully to what Mark Isherwood has said. I have to say, in all the years I’ve been in Government I’ve never seen a more rudderless UK Government. I have no idea what the UK Government’s position is. I hear different views from different Ministers. The currency market reacts every time Theresa May says something because they don’t know what she—. The leader of the Conservatives has just walked back into the Chamber. If you wanted to play a part in the debate, you’d have been here from the very start rather than walking in right at the end. He talks about chuntering on from these benches; he is the master of that art. If he’d listened to the arguments, perhaps he would have learned more rather than coming in at the end with a closed mind.
But the UK Government has given us no leadership at all. I hear some in the UK Government talk about tariffs as if they are of no consequence. I hear David Davis move his position, which I welcome, actually. He’s moved his position to what I think is a more pragmatic position. I hope that the pragmatists in the UK Government are more dominant than the dogmatists, who spout nationalist waffle, frankly. It’s the only way I can describe it—as being a nationalism for the UK. If you shout at foreigners enough they’ll give you what you want. That’s basically what some of the Conservative Party want, and this issue must be resolved for the good of the British people, not for what is politically convenient because of the rifts within the Conservative Party. That is, I’m afraid, what’s happening at the moment.
Plaid Cymru’s amendment—we will support that amendment. I’m glad they welcome the visit to Norway. I was asked today whether it was a jolly. I knew I’d be asked that as I stood in a temperature of -16 degrees C in the snow. I can guarantee you that it didn’t seem like that at the time. European Free Trade Area membership I raised with them. There’s certainly some concern among the EFTA members about the UK joining, because of its size. Norway is the biggest country in EFTA, of course, at the moment. Even though it’s only got 5 million people, it’s a massive oil exporter. Half the UK’s oil comes from Norway. There are only 5 million people, but there’s £700 billion of a sovereign wealth fund that it built up as the UK spent all its oil money. So, it is quite a major player, despite its size. There needs to be some discussion with Norway and the other EFTA members as to whether the UK would be welcome within EFTA because of its sheer size. But I’m glad to see that the third point that’s put forward in the amendment is, using the phrase that I’ve used, ‘full and unfettered access’ to the single market. EFTA membership is certainly a possibility. EEA membership is, again, something to look at. Customs union is perhaps less attractive at this stage, because of what that would do. I think EFTA membership and/or EEA is actually a better option at this stage, having examined the evidence. But I have to say that, the more you look at this, the more complicated it gets. The one thing we should avoid is thinking, ‘This is all very easy, it’ll all be sorted out in two years.’ It won’t. This’ll take hard slog, hard work, and I’m determined that we get this right for the people of Wales.