Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:39 pm on 7 February 2017.
Can I congratulate the First Minister on the White Paper and add that I will be supporting the motion today, although I lament the fact that there is no specific reference in it to maintaining EU social and environmental standards when we leave the EU? The Welsh public deserves assurances on matters that relate to workers’ rights and environmental protection, and it's a shame that that wasn't in the motion. But I'm glad that there is a mention of this in the White Paper, which I think gives a comprehensive analysis of the challenges facing Wales in the face of that Brexit vote. And I think the most interesting parts of the White Paper are the annexes, because they give an evidence base for supporting the claim that the Welsh economy would be massively damaged if we were to leave the single market under any of the alternative models of EU membership. I would suggest to the leader of UKIP that he should read the annexes and take note, because they are based on evidence, not on some hopeful plan that people are going to sign up to trade deals in the future.
I think it’s correct for the First Minister to emphasise the fact that the Brexit vote does need to be respected, however difficult that is for Euro-enthusiasts like me. But that doesn’t mean that we should slit the wrists of the Welsh economy and watch our country follow an inexorable path to poverty. What the people of Wales need to understand is that it’s not just about the job prospects and opportunities for our children that are under threat from Brexit, it’s also about our ability to deliver quality services for the people of Wales. We’ve heard today talk about this £8 billion Brexit dividend. Let me tell you the costs of leaving the EU.
First of all, last year the Government collected £90 billion—forget the EU, this is before we started—they collected £90 billion less in income tax than they had the previous year. Already, we’ve got City banks looking to relocate parts of their activity to the continent as a result of Brexit. That won’t just hit the City of London. That reduced tax take will mean that we will have less to spend on our schools and hospitals here in Wales. We know that the Government will need to borrow £58 billion to cover the Brexit black hole, and there will be a deterioration of £220 billion in terms of the national debt as a result of Brexit over the course of this Parliament.
We know that there’s going to be a divorce bill somewhere between £35 billion and £60 billion, and we know that they’re threatening now to make up and to make a bargain with the EU—‘give us what we want or we will cut corporation tax’. If we want to seriously compete in that way, we’d have to come in under the corporation tax level of Ireland—12 per cent. That means another £100 billion stuffed into the pockets of the rich, and less money for our public services. That is not the kind of country that I want to live in.
Now, promises were made during the referendum—promises that the Brexiteers started to wriggle out of the moment the referendum polls closed. One of the people who made those promises was the leader of the Tory party in the Assembly. Now, many farmers followed him like lambs to the slaughter with his promise of continued subsidies. Well, they’re now waking up to the reality: that for the first time they will have to compete with health for their funding. When farmers realise that they have been duped by his false promises—the leader of the Tories—they will turn on him. [Interruption.] Let me finish. They will turn on him and he will go from Brexit to ‘bricks it’. Now you can intervene.