4. What assessment has the Cabinet Secretary made of the impact in Wales of recent UK Government policy announcements on welfare reform? OAQ(5)0116(CC)

I thank the Member for Ogmore for his question. We have assessed the impact in Wales of the UK Government’s welfare reforms being introduced between 2015-16 and 2019-20. Welsh households will lose an average of 1.6 per cent of their income. That’s around £460 a year, equivalent to £600 million a year in Wales as a whole.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary for that answer and for clarifying the impact. He will know that, a year ago, before the last March budget, the then Secretary of State for Work and Pensions resigned over the then pending cuts to personal independence payments—the PIPs—arguing that the cuts were indefensible in a budget that benefitted higher-earning taxpayers. And in resigning, he said:

There has been too much emphasis on money saving exercises and not enough awareness from the Treasury, in particular, that the government’s vision of a new welfare-to-work system could not be repeatedly salami-sliced.’

This year, there is further tightening of the PIP regime through a statutory instrument, rather than on the floor of the Commons in full public view. Some Conservative MPs have expressed deep disquiet over this, not least after a Minister said he wanted to focus on the ‘really disabled’, for which he has subsequently apologised. So, will the Cabinet Secretary commission an up-to-date examination of the impact of these and other very recent UK policy changes on people with disabilities, and on rates of poverty in Wales, perhaps through the office of the auditor general, so that we can assess the damage to individuals and communities, and with that evidence, present the UK Government with the true impact of these policies?

I thank the Member for his question. I did speak to the Minister of State for Disabled People, and she wrote to me following her announcement stating that this was not a policy change in regard to payments, and it would not result in any personal independent payment claimant receiving a reduction in the amount of PIP previously awarded to them. However, it does appear that the UK Government is seeking to overturn the upper tribunal judgment, which would increase eligibility for PIP. I’ve asked my officials to follow up with her department, to seek clarity around that, and the impacts for people with disabilities and health conditions here in Wales.

A number of organisations have published comprehensive analysis, and academics and Government, on the impact of UK welfare reform on Wales. I’d like to ask the Cabinet Secretary—not going against the spirit of what the Member for Ogmore said—but perhaps we can go beyond analysing the impact to seeking solutions made here in Wales. Will the Cabinet Secretary therefore commit to publish a Welsh Government White Paper on creating a strong Welsh social safety net? This could include looking at how we could maximise powers that are already in competence, looking at strengthening partnership with local government and other service providers and maybe, dare I say, even, looking to the future, the possibility of transfer of certain social protection responsibilities from Westminster to Wales. So, will he commit to publishing a Welsh Government White Paper for a new humane Welsh approach to social security?

We have undertaken work about the risks to the UK welfare system in Wales. I’m sure that the UK Government would be delighted to transfer the risk to Wales, and they have done in the past around council tax benefits, where we were pushed some money across from the M4, but not enough, and I’m sure they will continue to do that. What we are seeking to do is maximise the support for people who need that in Wales and we’ll continue to do so in the future.

Cabinet Secretary, I’ve raised, previously, concerns with you over the impact of the Westminster Government’s changes to the local housing allowance from 2019 and the impact that that will have on Wales, compounded, I think you’ll agree with me, by the disgraceful decision that was taken last week to remove housing benefits for young people between the ages of 18 and 21.

A study that was commissioned by Merthyr Valleys Homes looked at the level of frozen local housing allowance in comparison to the average private rental rate in Merthyr Tydfil and identified a difference of up to £7.35 a week that would have to be met by the tenant. As I understand it, part of the changes will see moneys currently paid as housing benefit devolved to Wales. Can the Cabinet Secretary advise me what discussions he or his officials have had with the UK Government on how that level of devolved funding will be determined and what assurance he can give that that will be ring-fenced in some way to help the most disadvantaged by the freezing of the LHA?

The LHA differences affect some communities more than others. It will be something on which I will have a discussion with my colleague the Cabinet Secretary for finance—to have further discussions with the Treasury, as and when he has those, on a regular basis.