3. 3. Statement: The Welsh Government Future Trends Report

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 2:48 pm on 2 May 2017.

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Photo of Mark Drakeford Mark Drakeford Labour 2:48, 2 May 2017

Diolch yn fawr, Llywydd, and thank you to Nick Ramsay for those questions. I’ll start with his final point, which I think is an important one. I was very keen in discussing the nature of this report with my officials some months ago that it should not set out to be a report that purported to be a set of answers that people could just go to, because I think it could be positively misleading if it were framed in that way. It is therefore intended to be a resource document, a document where people can go to get authoritative information about key future trends, and where people can engage with that data, because, the sorts of questions that they may want to ask themselves about, drawing meaning from information, there will be sufficient prompts for them there to allow them to do that.

Now, it has a number of applied purposes as well, most significantly in helping our public services boards in their local assessments of well-being, part of which requires them to look at future trends in their own localities. This document was shared with local service boards back in November in its earlier form to assist them in that work, and, whereas this report is inevitably at an all-Wales level, I think if you look at some of the local well-being assessments that are now available online—. If you look at Pembrokeshire’s for example, you would see, I think, a very sophisticated discussion of climate change, the possible scenarios for that in future and the way it affects a local economy that is particularly dependent on shipping and on tourism. In looking at the way in which the information here has helped local organisations to carry out their thinking, then I think you can see some of the way in which this report does have a practical impact.

Nick Ramsay asked me about how the report might be developed in the future, and I said I am keen, if we can do it. What I don’t want to do is to meet the letter of the law here by publishing this report one year after the last Assembly elections and for us then to forget about this, and then there’ll be another report in five years’ time. I think, for this sort of report to be genuinely useful, it ought to be online as much as possible and it ought to be capable of being updated and added to all the time, as new trend data emerge.

I met recently with the National Union of Students in Wales, who wanted to talk about the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act, and they were especially interested in ways in which their members who are working on developing their own studies across a very wide range of topics reflected in this report, might be able to add to the resource that this report provides. If we were able to do it—to have that sort of iterative resource to which people could contribute, could take away from and could keep up to date—that, I think, would make it more likely to be something that is genuinely used by policy makers and by Welsh citizens to help them to reflect on the future. Will there be a point at which we evaluate its usefulness? Well, it’s a legal requirement under the Act to produce this report every five years, within one year of an Assembly election, and I imagine that, when the next report is prepared, part of what we will want to do will be to look back at this document to see whether it captured the sort of data that are genuinely useful, to see whether it identified those trends that were making the most difference, and, no doubt, to report on those things that none of us here have been able to foresee so far but will be making a difference to people’s lives five years from now.