3. 3. Statement: The Welsh Government Future Trends Report

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:03 pm on 2 May 2017.

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Photo of Mark Drakeford Mark Drakeford Labour 3:03, 2 May 2017

I thank Mike Hedges for those questions. He’s absolutely right to point out the danger of using future trends reports in a deterministic way, where we project into the future the situation we see in front of us. His horse manure example is a well-known one. My own favourite, Llywydd, recently, was I heard a Pathé News item from the late 1930s—I can’t do Pathé News voices for you, but it was in that urgent way that the commentator uses. The film was of a group of telephonists, and the message was that the spread of the telephone was happening so rapidly in the United Kingdom that, by 1960, every woman—and it was every woman, he said—in the United Kingdom would be needed to be a telephonist. If you predict the future in that sort of way, you end up, as I say, making very bad decisions.

But the plan here is to use the report to help us to make better decisions for the future. I hope there will be a transport plan for the Swansea city region, because it should come out of the new regional arrangements that we propose in our local government White Paper. And, as for education, Mike Hedges’s second question, then what we have learnt, I think, is not simply that those who need fastest access to education need that in the way that Flying Start provides it, but that the first 1,000 days of a child’s life, even before education is even part of what might be happening with them, has an enormously influential impact on their future, and this report helps in its way to try to draw together the different factors, whether that be in the health field, whether it be in the housing field, whether it be in the more general environment that a child at that part of their life faces, to make sure that we are able to do all we can to make those first 1,000 days the foundation for the success that that child might want to be in the future.