Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:57 pm on 10 May 2017.
Well, that’s a matter of opinion and I haven’t got time to debate that this afternoon. I hope we have an opportunity to do it again in the future.
You come out of a recession by doing two things: first, you devalue the currency and, secondly, you reflate the economy. The pound floats so it has not gone through a formal devaluation but it has been devalued by between 14 and 20 per cent against the dollar since June 2016. We also know devaluation gives a short-term boost to exports but brings inflation in its wake. As the pound’s value against the dollar has fallen from above 4 to between 1.3 and 1.2 dollars to the pound, we’ll soon be talking about the other way around unless something is done. There is no long-term benefit of devaluation, just a short boost, a kick-start.
Inflation in Britain, in a non-inflationary world, has started to make its way upwards and house prices have started to make their way downwards. We’ve had the boom, now we’re waiting for the bust. Five hundred billion pounds on capital projects will help reflate the economy. Assuming the Government borrows at 2 per cent via Government bonds or direct borrowing, which is probably on a high estimate, then, over 30 years, the capital repayment is less than £1.7 billion a year and interest at 2 per cent would be something like £10 billion—[Interruption.]—yes, I will—and at 4 per cent it would be something like £20 billion. Assuming only half goes on salaries—a low estimate—then each year, via taxes, at least £50 billion will come directly into the Government—actually it more than washes its face and recirculates the money in the economy.