1. What is the First Minister’s assessment of the implications for Wales of no trade deal with the EU? OAQ(5)0635(FM)

No deal is the worst deal. We know that no deal would mean trading under World Trade Organization rules. Nobody wants that on either side of the debate, and we know, of course, that that would put in place significant barriers to Welsh exports into our biggest and most important market.

Thank you, First Minister. I find it difficult to understand how Theresa May continues to say that no deal would be better than a bad deal, because I struggle to understand what the difference is. This is something that the journalists don’t seem to have asked her, or don’t have the opportunity to ask her. But I’ve read that some experts say that it could cost as much as £45 billion if we crash out of the EU, compared with half that if we come out with a negotiated deal. So, what is the First Minister’s assessment of what would happen to Wales, and Welsh trade with Europe, if there is no deal?

Well, 67 per cent of our exports go to the European market. Any obstacle that would be faced by exporters is bound to be bad for them. Any extra costs are bound to be bad for them, and that’s why it’s hugely important that Brexit is handled in a realistic way, not the naivety that we have seen from some, saying ‘Well, the Germans will never allow WTO rules to operate.’ I think there has to be a realism there, but, above all else, we have to secure a Brexit that is a sensible Brexit, and, above all else, one that does not affect in a negative way the economy of Wales.

First Minister, I’m sure you agree that we should be aiming for a good deal—a good deal for the United Kingdom, a good deal for Wales, and a good deal for the European Union—and I’m very confident that that is what will happen. But, can I just refer you to the UK economic outlook that was published in November 2016, which did identify—and this was on the trends before Brexit—that our exports to EU markets were likely to go down to about 37 per cent by 2030—that’s a UK figure, not just Wales—and that it was very important that we also developed those other markets outside Europe that are closest to us, particularly North America, Africa and the middle east? And I hope that your trade policy will focus on these markets, as well as, of course, taking advantage of whatever the relationships we now secure with the EU.

Very much so, and we work for markets anywhere and everywhere for Welsh produce. I remember, when I was rural affairs Minister, I spent much of my time getting Welsh lamb exports to the United Arab Emirates, for example. And we know that lamb is exported around the world. But we shouldn’t think that it’s a choice between accessing the European market or accessing other markets. The European market is much bigger than the US market, and the US is further away, whereas the EU, of course, will share a land border with us. The European market will continue to be our most important market for many, many years to come, which is why, of course, it’s so important to get a good deal that benefits all, and, above all else, allows us to sell without any kind of obstacle in that European market.

Well, according to the leaflet I received from the Liberal Democrats on Monday in Aberystwyth, we, Plaid Cymru and Labour, are in bed with the Tories and UKIP on a hard Brexit deal. I would be interested to know what kind of Cabinet discussions you have had with the Liberal Democrats on achieving this extreme Brexit. But, in the hope that you're not going to deliver that, can I ask you how we can get to a position where tariff-free access to the single market, from agriculture to manufacturing in Wales, with our partners in Europe can be achieved without maintaining some sort of membership of the single market?

Well, I don't wish to interfere in the politics of Ceredigion. I did see what Mark Williams has said since. I don’t accuse Plaid Cymru of being in favour of an extreme Brexit at all. But how can we ensure that an extreme Brexit doesn’t happen? The White Paper shows the way, and that White Paper has been agreed between three parties in this place and, to me, that shows us the way forward as regards how Brexit should be implemented over the ensuing years.