Diolch, Cadeirydd. I am pleased to speak as the Chair of the Finance Committee to this Bill, but also, as a previous member of the Children, Young People and Education Committee, I’m pleased to see the Bill make some progress. Before I talk about our committee’s consideration of the financial implications of the Bill, I must firstly address the Minister’s letter of 25 May, which Lynne Neagle has just also alluded to, which provided an update on the anticipated changes to the Bill’s regulatory impact assessment. I am also extremely disappointed that these changes were not shared with us until the day after the Stage 1 reporting deadline, preventing this information forming part of our committee’s consideration prior to today’s debate.

These changes are significant, have a substantial impact on the costs of the Bill, and, due to the timing of the publication, have not been addressed either in our report. The scale of the revisions at this stage in a Bill’s progress is alarming, with the Minister now estimating that the Bill will cost £8.3 million over the implementation period, which is four years, rather than delivering a saving of £4.8 million. This represents an overall change in costs of £13.1 million. Furthermore, the Minister has indicated that these figures are still subject to change and finalised figures will not be available until a revised regulatory impact assessment is published ahead of Stage 3 proceedings, currently scheduled to take place in September. In the light of this information, I wrote to the Minister requesting that he delay moving a financial resolution in respect of the Bill until an updated summary of costs is provided and scrutinised. The Minister wrote to Members this morning and has confirmed to Plenary today that he will delay the moving of the financial resolution and that a revised regulatory impact assessment will be published by the end of the summer recess. As a previously very active member of the Finance Committee, as I recall, in his first term in the Assembly, I’m sure he understands the Finance Committee’s concerns in this area and appreciates that we will now get a chance to look at that revised impact assessment before a financial resolution is moved.

This, however, is where things get a little complicated, if I may say so, Chair, because, at the time of the introduction of the Bill, the current published regulatory impact assessment identified estimated savings of over £14.2 million over a four-year period. However, we were advised by the Minister the day before our evidence session that errors had been identified in the regulatory impact assessment, which resulted in the anticipated savings being reduced to £12.8 million over the four-year period. Our report acknowledges the Minister’s assurances that these revised figures were robust. Nevertheless, we were disappointed that these errors were not identified prior to the Bill’s introduction and recommended that the regulatory impact assessment be updated to take account of the revised financial information. Clearly, however, the revised figures were not robust, as the Minister’s latest letter indicates estimated savings of only £3.7 million over the four-year period. So, in summary, we’ve gone from anticipated savings over four years of £14.2 million to today’s figure of £3.7 million. But these figures have not been interrogated by the Finance Committee and do not form part of our report today. This significant change is largely attributed to concerns raised by SNAP Cymru in relation to disagreements and appeals. The Minister’s letter states that his officials met with SNAP Cymru in March, so the committee is keen to understand why the outcome of these discussions has not been shared with the committee prior to the Stage 1 deadline.

Another key development during the course of our scrutiny was the Minister’s announcement of an additional £20 million investment to support ALN learners. The Minister explained that this investment relates not only to delivering the Bill, but also to a wider transformational activity, and provided further detail on the anticipated allocation of funding to support the ALN system overhaul. In our report, we recognise the Welsh Government’s ambitions to overhaul the system, but believe also that the costs of implementing the Bill had been underestimated. We therefore welcome the extra £20 million investment. Whilst we recognise that the context of transformational change makes it more challenging to categorise costs, it is important for us to understand how this money will be allocated to directly facilitate and support the implementation of the Bill in order to undertake robust financial scrutiny. Consequently, we recommended that any revised regulatory impact assessment makes clear whether the additional £20 million investment is being made available for the purposes of the Bill. The Minister’s recent letter indicates that the revised £8.3 million cost associated with the Bill will be incurred by the Welsh Government and covered by the £20 million implementation funding package. This raises further questions, however, as to the purpose of the funding package and the impact of the increased implementation costs on the previously advised allocation of that funding.

The other main area of concern highlighted in our report relates to the Welsh Government’s transition funding, which will be provided to other bodies in order to deliver the Bill’s provisions. This includes around £7 million in transition grants available to local authorities and other organisations to support the implementation of the Bill. We welcome the Minister’s intention to develop a formula-based allocation and his commitment to minimising bureaucracy and the burden of an application process. However, we believe that a clear financial steer is needed, and we have therefore recommended that the grant funding should be ring-fenced.

The Bill also proposes transferring responsibility for planning and securing post-16 specialist further education provision from the Welsh Government to local authorities. This includes transferring the Welsh Government’s existing annual budget of £12.4 million to the revenue support grant. The Minister was concerned that ring-fencing this funding would lead to capped budgets, rather than supporting a needs-based system of funding. However, the committee remains concerned that local authorities may not allocate the transferred funding as intended and has recommended that the funding must be dedicated to delivering the transferred responsibilities.

Our report deals with several other recommendations, but I don’t have time, I’m afraid, Chair, to go into some detail. But one I would like the attention of the Assembly to is our recommendation regarding the statutory designated educational clinical lead officer role, and the effect, therefore, on health board ALN provision, which reflects some of the deliberations of the other committee.

In conclusion, if I may, Chair, the levels of revision have raised serious concerns as to the validity of the Government’s costings and its ability to successfully fund and implement the Bill. The Government must ensure that the revised regulatory impact assessment, promised by the end of the summer recess, is published in good time, is accurate and robust, and allows us all in Plenary and in committee to allow for proper scrutiny before a financial resolution is moved in Plenary. Diolch yn fawr.