Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:20 pm on 3 October 2017.
I agree with the point that Adam Price made with such passion a moment ago, that it is right for parties in this house to work together for the benefit of Wales. So I was a bit surprised, actually, when the Cabinet Secretary did ring me this morning, because on the radio on Sunday morning, he said he has little limited contact with the Conservatives and can’t ever imagine having conversations with UKIP. Anyway, I’m very pleased to see that he’s recanted within a couple of days from that rather extreme opinion.
This debate, to an extent, is one of shadow-boxing, because although I appreciate that the deal that Plaid Cymru have done with Labour has enabled them to make a real contribution to this budget in detail—£500-odd million is not an insignificant sum—but the Welsh Government’s budget, of course, is £15 billion to £16 billion and they are constrained, in any event, in what they can do with it by the obvious things that have to be funded by any Government. The element of discretion in the Welsh budget is inevitably very limited, although that will certainly become greater when we do actually get tax devolution in two years’ time. Then, there will be more options that the elected politicians of Wales will be able to choose from amongst in (a) the levels of taxation and (b) what we do with it. But the background to this budget is, of course, set out in what the Cabinet Secretary says about the policy of the UK Government. He says:
‘If the UK Government continues on its present path, we face a further extension in a period of austerity already unprecedented in length and depth.’
He also says, in the same paragraph in this statement, that a report from the chief economist for Wales about future public finances and our economic prospects shows some stark messages. The one message that I get from the pack that came with the document with all the details about the budget in it today, and the chief economist’s report—it has at the end of it, on page 27, this from the Office for Budget Responsibility:
‘new unfunded “giveaways” would take the Government further away from its medium-term fiscal objective and would only add to the longer-term challenges. In many recent fiscal events, giveaways today have been financed by the promise of takeaways tomorrow. The risk there, of course, is that tomorrow never comes.’
From the way in which the Welsh Government speaks about the economy, anybody would think that spending bills never come home to roost. We’ve been down that dolorous path many, many times in the course of my lifetime. Eventually, the chickens do come home to roost and you have to be able to pay back the money that you borrow. Very often, of course, the payback time comes when it’s extremely inconvenient, and indeed sometimes impossible, to do so. Once a Government loses its credit rating and its ability to borrow at reasonable rates, then those who suffer most in those circumstances—all historical precedent shows this—are those, actually, who are the most vulnerable in society. I give way to Mike Hedges.