Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Can I start by thanking all Members for their contributions, and especially the Member for Llanelli for bringing forward this debate today? I wanted to begin my contribution by also thanking Lee for the discussions that we and other Members have had over the last few months around this issue. We may not have always agreed, but I have appreciated the practical challenge that Lee and others have provided to this project. In that same spirit, there are a few key issues that I want to address in my response today.

It’s vital that we start by recognising the continued and worsening problems on the M4 around Newport and that they must be resolved. These are problems not simply faced by commuters on the motorway, but problems faced by the residents of Newport and the wider economy of Wales: problems of congestion around the Brynglas tunnels; problems when buses are regularly delayed or the police and council are impaired in doing their jobs by people simply seeking to avoid the congested motorway; problems of air quality, worsened by stop-start traffic; the reputational and economic impact of a gateway to Wales that is unreliable; and a disincentive to inward investment. The inadequacies of the existing M4 around Newport are clear for all to see.

The road was first designed in the 1950s not as a motorway but as the Newport bypass. It falls far below modern motorway standards, with lane drops, intermittent hard shoulders, poor alignment and frequent junctions. Central reserve enhancements and a variable speed limit have improved the situation, but ‘make do and mend’ is no longer a sustainable policy choice to meet the long-term needs of Wales. Tackling that congestion and modernising what is a vitally important piece of infrastructure in Wales is a key priority for this Welsh Government. That’s why the last Welsh Government made it very clear in the last Assembly to deliver a relief road for the M4, and my party reaffirmed that pledge in its 2016 Assembly election manifesto. That commitment was then voted on by the people of Wales, and entered into our programme for government. These commitments and endorsements do not give this Welsh Government a blank cheque, but what they do give are promises, and we have a democratic mandate that should be respected and delivered on.

The proposed M4 corridor around Newport would represent a significant infrastructure investment in Newport, and comes with a strong business case and a suite of embedded environmental mitigation and compensation. The economic appraisal shows that the scheme provides good value for money. The adjusted benefit-cost ratio, which captures benefits from increased economic density, greater competition and enhanced labour market access, is greater than 2. That means that over the 60-year appraisal period, there is more than £2 of benefit for each pound spent on the scheme, without touching on the wider economic benefits likely to flow from the scheme, such as a stronger perception of Wales as a place to invest, which cannot be captured. It would complement and integrate with our plans for the Cardiff capital region metro, providing a holistic transport network fit for the future.

The public inquiry into this project by independent inspectors is allowing open and robust scrutiny as to whether it is the sustainable long-term solution to the serious problems associated with this gateway into Wales. The rigour of the inquiry process is appropriate to the importance of the subject, and the outcome of this inquiry really does matter for Wales.

The future generation commissioner’s input to that inquiry is to be welcomed; I want to make that point very clearly. The role of the commissioner in ensuring that the interpretation of the well-being of future generations Act is robust is hugely important. I think it only fair, however, that I correct what I feel to be a misinterpretation of the commissioner’s recent letter in the press. The fact of the matter is that the commissioner has expressly not commented on allegations made by others that the M4 project is not compliant with the Act. I can assure all Members that the principles, the ways of working and the goals of the Act have been considered in the development of this project, and will continue to be fully and equally considered in the final decision making on this project.

As part of the evidence submitted, an evaluation of the overall sustainability of the scheme has been presented to the inquiry. Undertaken by John Davies, that review was a thorough evidence-based assessment of the scheme in the context of relevant legislation and policy, including the well-being of future generations Act. His conclusion is that the scheme is essential to the well-being of the people of Wales, and should proceed.

The sustainable development principle, first enshrined in the Government of Wales Act, and then reinforced in the future generations Act, precludes decision makers from taking a short-termist approach at the expense of future generations. The five ways of working set out clearly the obligations on the Welsh Government to avoid compromising the interests of future generations. The ways of working acknowledge the fact that there may be trade-offs between desirable objectives and goals. The sustainable development principle involves striking a balance. The principle clearly states that public bodies must take account of the importance of balancing short-term needs with the need to safeguard the ability to also meet long-term needs.

Recently, Deputy Presiding Officer, the Welsh Government stepped in to provide financial support to help the steel industry in Wales, when Tata put its UK sites up for sale in 2016. The support we have provided has been vital in keeping steel jobs and steel production in Wales, at its sites in Port Talbot, Shotton, Llanwern and Trostre. The decision we were faced with was a trade-off. Steel as an industry today is not the low-carbon industry we want it to be, but our decision to provide financial support to save jobs at the plants in south Wales, and in north Wales, in the short-term was a trade-off to give us the time to plan for more energy-efficient future techniques and a future for the industry that I’m sure we all want to see—an outcome more sustainable for future generations than putting thousands of Welsh workers out of work in the short term. The sustainable development principle requires that these difficult decisions are made in light of their social, economic, environmental and cultural implications in both the short term and the long term. That case is very different to the one we are discussing here, but it is another example of the balancing act that must be struck.

I’ve heard those who say that the funding allocated to this scheme would be better employed expanding public transport options in the region. In developing detailed traffic modelling for the project, we have anticipated the impact of scrapping Severn bridge tolls, and examined the impact of implementing our metro vision. We have taken a long-term view of what is required to prepare the south-east Wales transport network for the future; however, there is a limit to what an expanded metro would do. As our detailed analysis makes clear, the metro’s greatest positive impact will be on north-south patterns of travel, and not the east-west journeys catered for by the M4. The public transport overview report has assessed the impact of all the rail elements of the metro, up to 2037, and of the proposed Llanwern park-and-ride station, and it found that less than 4 per cent of traffic on the M4 would be extracted from the road even on the set of assumptions most favourable for modal shift.

The outcome of the M4 inquiry will inform a decision on whether to proceed with construction next year. I’m unable to comment any further on the ongoing statutory process other than to say that the final decision will be made with a fully informed view based on all legislation, including the future generations Act. Looking more widely than just the M4, I am keen that we see that particular road in the context of the wider ambitions we have as a Welsh Government to decarbonise the transport system. One of the key developments in this work will be the national infrastructure commission, which we’re setting up to play a key role in planning Wales’s infrastructure needs—needs planned over the long term, independent of Government, and helping to prioritise strategic investment decisions. We are continually developing our transport planning so that it can plan for growth in a sustainable way. The future generations commissioner has herself welcomed the new WelTAG model we have developed for planning and transport projects.

Deputy Presiding Officer, we must continue to strive to achieve modal shift in our transport system, and to ensure more balance in the way we plan transport solutions. However, I do come back to the central issue at hand: the existing infrastructure on the M4 around Newport is not fit for purpose. That has been our conclusion for some time. Piecemeal and useful improvements have been undertaken over time, which will improve the position, including a variable speed limit and modernisation of the Brynglas tunnels, but they’ve only postponed the issue. This piece of infrastructure needs a major, long-term upgrade. The inquiry will conclude soon and I will commit to keeping Members informed of progress. Thank you.