Recognising the devolution of our new fiscal responsibilities, agreement was reached by the Assembly on a new budget process. For the first time, we have published our budget proposals in two stages. We set out the major building blocks of the budget on 3 October, reflecting those new fiscal responsibilities, and showing where the money comes from and how it was proposed that it should be allocated across portfolios. To help inform understanding, a suite of documents was published alongside the budget, including the chief economist's report, the Welsh tax policy report, and the independent report by Bangor University. I'm grateful to the Finance Committee for all its work in relation to this budget, and was glad to see in their report on it an indication that they are content with the level of detail provided alongside the outline budget. I look forward to engaging positively with the further recommendations set out in the Finance Committee's report. 

On 24 October, Dirprwy Lywydd, we provided a greater degree of detail at budget expenditure line level than has ever previously been provided. This is a step that colleagues in the Chamber called for last year, and I hope that it has proved helpful in supporting meaningful scrutiny at the portfolio level. I have followed with interest the scrutiny sessions by individual subject committees, and I'd like to record my thanks to all Members who have played their part in our evolving budget process. My own reflection at this stage is that the two-stage process has worked in line with the intentions that led to its creation, but I look forward, of course, to hearing the experiences of others in this regard during the afternoon.

What is more challenging, Llywydd, is the unavoidable awkwardness of a UK budget that takes place late in our own draft budget process. That awkwardness is clearly apparent in the debate today, as we discuss a draft budget prepared before we had received the further allocations made available on 22 November. I intend to use most of the time available to me this afternoon to set out how I plan to align the resources made available in the UK budget with our own budget processes. Before doing so, however, let me deal briefly with the macroeconomic context that the UK budget reveals. Downward revisions to the economic forecasts, published by the Office for Budget Responsibility, confirmed weaker economic growth, lower tax revenues, and yet further pressures on living standards. That context has a direct bearing on our budget here in Wales because the new forecasts from the OBR help shape the resources that will be available to Wales through the working of a fiscal framework. 

The Welsh Government's draft budget for 2018-19 was prepared using economic information from the UK spring budget, including OBR forecasts. Our own tax revenue forecasts, which use a number of the OBR economic determinants, will be revised now to reflect the new information made available alongside the November budget. As part of their work, Bangor University will scrutinise and assure these revised forecasts, and I'm happy to confirm this afternoon, Llywydd, that I will publish a summary report of the Bangor scrutiny work alongside our final budget on 19 December. I'd like to thank the team from Bangor for their excellent work to date. I'm pleased to let Members know that they have agreed to extend their current contract to undertake the independent scrutiny and assurance role for next year's budget, building on the expertise they have developed this year. This arrangement will continue as we put in place permanent arrangements for the independent production of independent tax revenue forecasts for Wales. Discussions with the UK Government and the OBR continue on that point, and I will update Members as we make further progress. 

Llywydd, let me return to the way in which decisions about our budget are to be made against the background of UK Government decisions. As far as revenue is concerned, over the next week, I will continue to carry out discussions with Cabinet colleagues, concerning the £215 million-worth of consequentials from the UK budget available to Wales over a four-year period. The First Minister has agreed to a paper being presented to the next full Cabinet meeting, on 12 December, when I will bring a set of proposals for discussion. At the same time, in line with our previous agreement, I will discuss matters of mutual interest with Plaid Cymru, and I'm grateful to Steffan Lewis for having made time already to begin those discussions.

Llywydd, my intention is that the outcome of these discussions on the revenue consequences of the 22 November budget will be reflected in the final budget, which I have to lay before this Assembly on 19 December. I plan to do that because I think it is particularly important to give as much certainty as possible to our public service partners on the resources that will be available to them to run the services that they provide over the next two years.

I then intend to turn to discuss further the capital consequentials of the UK budget, including financial transaction capital. I hope to carry out those discussions over the holiday period. I'll give an undertaking this afternoon, Llywydd, that any early decisions on immediate capital priorities which it is possible to agree, before we debate the final budget on 16 January, will be set out to Members in advance of that debate on 16 January so that Members will be informed about them before we take that final vote. Those capital allocations will not be reflected in the final budget; I can't do it in time for that. But I will try to make sure that Members have the maximum amount of information that I am able to make available to them, and that information will include any additional capital consequentials that I'm able to agree on with Plaid Cymru, as part of our discussions with them.

Llywydd, there is a third element that we have to deal with as a result of the UK budget. The Chancellor announced a decision to introduce a new first-time buyer relief in stamp duty land tax as part of his budget. He did so, as Members here will know, despite the very clear advice of the Office for Budget Responsibility that such a relief was more likely to benefit sellers, through raised prices, rather than buyers, and that the relief will be significantly vulnerable to abuse. The change introduced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer means that, in England, 80 per cent of first-time buyers will pay no stamp duty at all. The proposals I set out on 3 October, to set the starting point of land transaction tax at £150,000 for Wales from 1 April next year, already means that 70 per cent of all first-time buyers in Wales will be exempt from that tax.

The Chancellor's decision, however, does result in some additional funding for Wales through a reduced block grant adjustment. That money is therefore in addition to the £215 million revenue consequentials, which I set out earlier. I continue to consider how that additional funding might best be deployed in Wales, and I intend to make an announcement on my decisions in that area before the end of this term.