Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:45 pm on 24 January 2018.
The reason for this debate today is actually to pinpoint why this document lacks so much confidence. When you do talk—and it is fair to say, since its introduction, I have had the good opportunity to speak to many businesses and many organisations the length and breadth of Wales. They too lack the confidence that this document should have ingrained in them that the Welsh Government will be able to close some of these hard, economic indicators that have existed for many years.
It could well be the fact that the entire document is not based on any significant economic intelligence because, obviously, this is a line of questioning that I have put to the First Minister as to why the Welsh Government, in developing economic policy, has not developed an economic intelligence unit to look at the input/output tables, so that you know what you're putting in and what you're going to get out from the programmes and initiatives that you put in place. Many other countries across the globe rely on that type of data, and rely on that type of understanding of economic activity, to shape the policies and shape the initiatives that have moved the indicators positively for the communities that those Governments represent. In fairness, when it comes to Scotland, for example, they have commissioned a dedicated unit at Strathclyde university to make sure that that activity informs Scottish Government policy in the field of economic development and economic opportunity.
But I do go back to the point, in listening to the previous debate, that the Cabinet Secretary touched on how he sees his vision of the regional directors that he has put in place, which this document talks of in glowing terms, as being the game changer to the delivery of economic policy here in Wales. How does he? Because when you read this document, there are no indicators of what progress there will be in GVA; there are no indicators of where wages will go over the lifetime of this document. How does he believe that the new structures will be able to give that distinctive strength that he talks of to the regions of Wales? How will the regional directors, who are obviously going to be empowered—I would hope—from the Welsh Government to drive forward Government initiatives, make an impact where their predecessors have failed in the past?
I well remember now, with 10 years under my belt in this Assembly, much of the talk around the enterprise zones that were delivered here in Wales—enterprise zones that, on the surface, seemed to promise to deliver much and have consumed much wealth from the Welsh Government: £221 million of public money; but when you actually look at their impact across Wales, have achieved significantly varying results. And in the areas where they should achieve better results, where the challenges are greater, their impact has been minimal. I notice that the document talks little about the enterprise zones and the creation or development—or continued development—of that initiative that was underpinning much of the economic development that the Welsh Government had in the last term. So, again, from a lessons learned exercise, how does this document give us the confidence that the Welsh Government will be able to have that reach around the length and breadth of Wales, that previous initiatives, such as the enterprise zones, have failed to deliver?
Also, the one thing, again, I do think that this document fails to recognise is the devolution of responsibility when it comes to economic development in England. There isn't a single mention in this document about metro mayors or city mayors in England and how that cross-border working could enhance greater opportunities the length and breadth of Wales. If you look at Bristol, for example, if you look at the mayor for the west midlands, Andy Street, if you look at, obviously, Liverpool, and if you look at Manchester—four huge economic drivers right the length and breadth of Offa's Dyke—there is a huge—in one breath—competition for any investment that might be there, but there's also—in another breath—a great opportunity for collaboration, and yet after reading this document, it doesn't mention those opportunities once in it. Not once. That, surely, is an admission, Cabinet Secretary, of what you might be able to achieve when you collaboratively work across the border that is Offa's Dyke.
I also make the point in my opening remarks about how we are going to make that difference from being, regrettably, a low-wage economy to an economy that does deliver wages that are more comparable to other parts of the United Kingdom. I've used the example of that £49 a week going into pay packets in Scotland, but I could have pulled any region of England or Northern Ireland, because, regrettably, we have the lowest take-home pay of any part of the United Kingdom. This document, again, only mentions the word 'wages' twice. It mentions the word 'wages' twice, and when it comes to taxes, which is a new lever that the Welsh Government has, it actually mentions 'taxes' once. Surely, those are major areas that any economic document should be looking at, if it is looking to improve the lives of the people of Wales.
And then the big challenge for us on job creation and job preservation, which has been debated in this Chamber, around automation, if you look in eight years' time, the projections are that 25 per cent of the jobs will be lost here in Wales because of automation—or recalibrated to new roles, if we're streetwise enough to make sure that we are keeping up with that progress. By 2035, it will be 35 per cent of jobs here in Wales that will be lost or recalibrated. I hope it will be a recalibration, not a loss. But, again, the document does not offer any route-map as to how we will work with industry and how Government policy will seek to implement change and assist business to implement that change. Surely, again, any document that has a vision for where we're going to be in the future should be addressing that head-on.
If I could ask the Cabinet Secretary in his response—it might well just be a printing oversight in here, but I do notice that, where it talks of transport infrastructure projects that will be supported by the Welsh Government on page 37, it talks very specifically about the north-east gateway on the A494, it talks about the third Menai crossing; it doesn't mention the black route, Cabinet Secretary. It just says 'M4' full stop. Given what we know about the spiralling costs associated with that project, can the Cabinet Secretary confirm that that is an oversight and that it is in fact a key part of Government policy to deliver the M4 black route—not just improvements on the M4, but the M4 black route? I'm assuming it's an oversight, but it is something that, when I was reading the document, I did notice. Despite the detailed description of other transport projects, there's a rather vague note when it comes to the M4, and I think many people would gladly wish to understand exactly how the Cabinet Secretary is handling those cost pressures within his budget.
So, it would have been good to stand here today and endorse this document, but with little or no—[Interruption.] The Cabinet Secretary for rural affairs obviously sighs. As Hefin David said earlier, the real Russell George was in the last debate. The real Andrew Davies is passionate about making sure that economic development reaches all communities in Wales, and I fully accept—I fully accept—that the Government have a mandate till 2021, and the decisions that the Government take will impact on communities the length and breadth of Wales. It would be good to stand here and have confidence that this document does make a difference from its three predecessors.
But, as I said, with little or no economic intelligence going into this document that I could see or that I can find in the research notes to it, with little or no indicators to measure progress and the direction of progress that the Welsh Government wishes to undertake, and with little or no references to, at least as I see it, the three major challenges that any economic document should undertake—which are increasing wages here in Wales; working with industry to make sure that the agenda of automation is focused on and job security is protected and we continue to create quality jobs; and above all that we work across our borders with the economic opportunities that are there with the devolved economic development opportunities that the mayors and metro mayors have in England; none of those issues are touched on in this document—how can you have confidence in the document actually being any different from its three predecessors? And that's why I call on the Chamber to support the motion that is down in the name of Paul Davies today, saying that we lack the confidence that this document will make those changes that we would all wish to see here in Wales.