Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:21 pm on 6 February 2018.
Can I thank my colleague David Rees for those questions? If you look at the work that's been done by Cardiff Business School, it does look at what a 'no deal' scenario would be. It is right to say that it identifies some sectors as being more at risk, for example, from tariff barriers, and others from non-tariff barriers, and we're working with those sectors to make sure that we can understand their difficulties.
There is one thing that I hear time and time and time again—I heard it again yesterday—and that is the impact on recruitment, from businesses who are saying to me, 'We recruit from other countries. What happens now if we can't recruit? We are an international organisation, we need the best people from wherever they are. What happens how?' We're not sure how that's going to work in the post-Brexit future.
In terms of the legal challenges that he—. The other thing I should've mentioned is of course we are opening offices around the world, working with the UK Government to make sure that we identify new markets to try and mitigate what a hard Brexit would look like, but let's not pretend we can actually overcome the challenges that that would create.
In terms of legal challenges, much of it depends on what happens in the transitional period. If the UK is willing to accept that the European Court of Justice would still have jurisdiction and EU laws would apply in that transitional period then there's no difficulty. But of course the difficulty arises in terms of the UK saying, 'We're not going to do that'. Who then acts as the trade court? What scope will there be for divergence? All these things are unaddressed.
There is no reason, of course, in devolved areas that a devolved Parliament and Government couldn't just accept new EU regulation and incorporate it into domestic law. There's nothing to stop us doing it, but of course that would be a matter for this Parliament. If we look, for example, at the regulatory bodies: I've mentioned the European Medicines Agency already this afternoon, Euratom, if we look at the regulation of the air industry—none of these things have been addressed. No-one knows yet, and we're only a year away. No-one knows yet how these issues will be resolved in the future, and the Member's quite right to say that nobody wants to see duplication in terms of certification. I've heard some in the UK Government say, 'Well, you see, what Brexit is all about is basically keeping the same rules as the European Union, but it's our choice as to whether we keep them or not'. I've heard some say that. I've heard others talk about a bonfire of regulation. They want a low regulation economy, one where wages are suppressed, where environmental standards are depressed, and that is the classic right-wing ideology when it comes to what Britain should look like beyond Brexit.
In terms of trade remedies, it's hugely important, of course, that we have a role in shaping what that might look like in the future. We know it's a powerful tool. We've seen it in the United States in the last few weeks, and how important that can be, and the effect it can have on economies outside of the USA. That will be an important factor in terms of the discussions that we have with the UK Government as to what the trade relationships and the trade structure within the UK should be in years to come.