2. What discussions has the First Minister had with the UK Government on the post-Brexit economic forecast for Wales? OAQ51773

I've repeatedly and consistently raised with the Prime Minister and other UK Government Ministers the potential serious economic harm to Wales arising from Brexit, and that includes highlighting the analysis that we published in our 'Securing Wales' Future' White Paper last year, and our recent trade policy document.

Well, First Minister, it seems the cat is now out of the bag that the Government's real evidence as to the impact of Brexit without access to the single market is something that's going to cause significant damage to the Welsh economy. It appears only AMs in Wales are allowed to see these documents, provided we do that within certain restricted conditions. Members of the public, our constituents, aren't allowed to share this information. But the outcome of that evidence is that, effectively, depending upon what level of access we may or may not have to the European market, we will suffer an economic hit of around 1.5 per cent, or up to 9.5 per cent, to our economy. If we had a 9 per cent hit to our Welsh economy, what would be the implications in Wales for jobs and the standard of living of the Welsh people?

We will lose jobs and incomes will decline. I can't understand why the UK Government has been so secretive about these analyses and not shared them more widely with people. It doesn't sound to me like a great deal of transparency, certainly, is exercised by the UK Government in Whitehall. Can I say—? The one thing that we are lacking here is that there are those who say that we would be better off outside the single market and the customs union, but not one scrap of evidence has been produced to support that. Not one scrap of evidence. The reality is it's about time that the Tories moved away from wishful thinking, saying, 'Yeah, it'll all be fine, don't worry about it. Don't worry about the experts. Don't worry about the analyses. Don't worry about the reports; they're all wrong', and came clean with the people of Britain and said, 'Well, actually, when we say we want to leave the single market and the customs union, we were wrong', because everybody else can see that that's exactly what's happening now.

Post Brexit, First Minister, can I ask what plans does the Welsh Government have to dramatically increase Wales's economic intelligence capacity in order to improve public policy planning and delivery in Wales?

Well, of course, we have the Wales Centre for Public Policy, but also we're looking to increase the number of offices in key markets abroad, working, of course, with the appropriate UK Government departments, and that is something that we are doing in the course of this year. We find that they are exceptionally important in terms of sourcing potential investment and sourcing potential markets for Welsh produce. I know how important our Dubai office was to us when we got Welsh lamb into the United Arab Emirates. So, looking for new markets is an important part of the plan we have to deal with Brexit.

It's over a year since you published the White Paper making the case for Wales to remain within the single market and the customs union. You haven't been able to persuade Theresa May of the merits of that policy, and perhaps you can be forgiven for that, but why haven't you been able to convince Jeremy Corbyn?

Well, I'm not responsible for what happens in London. I have discussed this in detail with Keir Starmer and, of course, I know that the Labour Party's policy changes according to the circumstances. But may I say that, as far as we are concerned, the best way for Wales to ensure that we have a prosperous economic future is to remain in the customs union and in the single market?