The Impact of Leaving the European Union on Islwyn

Part of 1. Questions to the First Minister – in the Senedd at 2:19 pm on 27 February 2018.

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Photo of Julie James Julie James Labour 2:19, 27 February 2018

Well, Professor Minford is a little of an outlier amongst economic professors. Actually, in fact, I think he is entirely alone in his analysis of Welsh economic prospects without the EU. Our economic analysis shows that, over the long term, our economic output could be up to 8 per cent to 10 per cent lower than otherwise if we leave the single market and are forced to trade under World Trade Organization rules. This is in line with other published economic analysis and the reports of the UK Government's own assessment. This is equivalent to around £1,500 to £2,000 a head. The impact on the UK's economy will hit the public finances available to provide public services, following a long period of sustained austerity. This will only make worse the continued challenge of delivering our priorities within the context of growing pressures and an ever-decreasing budget. Economic growth and jobs in Islwyn are being supported through multimillion-pound European Union funding schemes, including Working Skills for Adults, Bridges into Work, apprenticeships and the SMART business and innovation schemes. The benefits these schemes are creating for our communities, people and businesses demonstrate the need for replacement funding from the UK Government after we leave the EU. Otherwise, I am afraid Professor Minford will find himself, once again, on the wrong side of the academic argument.