2. Will the Cabinet Secretary make a statement on the implementation of the new devolved taxes since they came into force on 1 April 2018? OAQ51976

Thank you, of course, for the question. Early indications suggest a successful start to the administration of devolved taxes since 1 April. Earlier today, the Welsh Revenue Authority published the first of what will be a regular series of statistical releases. It shows that 1,100 organisations have registered with the WRA for land transaction tax.

Thank you for that update, Cabinet Secretary, and I’m sure we’re grateful to the WRA for their work, and for what appears to be a successful start, as he says, to a new period in the constitutional history of Wales. You will be aware, of course, that these things are a process rather than an event. As part of the process, you’ve also set out in the taxation work programme some ideas on new taxes, or the development of taxes, in Wales, including working with the UK Government on a plastics levy possibly, and working here in Wales on a vacant land tax. So, can you give us an update on that, and that work programme, and how you have discussed these issues, or not, with the Westminster Government in terms of these new taxes?

Thank you, Simon, for that question. Just to say, the success that the authority is having at present comes from the hard, preparatory work that was done over the past years, including the work of the committee, which has been part of preparing the authority for the work that they are now undertaking. As regards the new taxes, we are continuing to work with the United Kingdom Government on more than one aspect. We are talking to them about what they are doing in the field of a plastics tax, and we’ve agreed to take the lead on this debate in Wales and to feed into the call for evidence— I've forgotten the Welsh word for 'evidence'. 'Tystiolaeth', of course—that the Treasury issued in March.

We also want to start to talk about Gerry Holtham’s work with them and what he has suggested in the care sector, but I have written—and I have shared the letter with the Finance Committee—officially to the Treasury to initiate the process in the field of vacant land. This is the one that we wish to use to test the new system that we have in the 2014 Act. I have written to the Treasury and we are preparing on an official level the work that we need to do with them. I’m looking forward to receiving a positive response from them and to begin this work in the Assembly—the more detailed work on the policy—and to see whether it will be possible to bring forward a Bill to the floor of the Assembly in order to create the first Wales-only tax through the process available to us.

In his latest spotlight on Cardiff offices, Ross Griffin, the director of UK investment at Savills, says that the increase in stamp duty to 6 per cent on a significant office development will deter investment by making Wales more expensive as investors target English regional cities instead of Cardiff, cutting the flow of capital into the Cardiff market. He concludes that this will limit future growth of the Cardiff office market and future employment growth in the city. How is this going to help my constituents and others who look to work in Cardiff? 

Well, Llywydd, we will now be in the business of collecting evidence rather than trading speculations. This National Assembly has made the decision on the levels of taxation in non-domestic property for this financial year. Ninety per cent of commercial transactions in Wales will enjoy the lowest rate of taxation anywhere in the United Kingdom, because 90 per cent of commercial transactions happen at the level of £1.1 million or below, and we have the lowest tax rates for that part of our economy of any part of the United Kingdom. I've heard the case made by Mr Reckless and by those who make it. I've met with those companies and individuals myself. My officials have met with them subsequently. The analysis by Bangor as part of our preparations did not suggest that those would be the outcomes, but I will look very carefully at the evidence, and if the evidence suggests that the outcomes that are suggested in that article are something that ought to concern this National Assembly, then, of course, I will take that into account in decisions that will be made for future years. 

Can I welcome the answers that the Cabinet Secretary has given to Simon Thomas? Can I just add my voice, yet again, to the calls for a plastic tax, which the Cabinet Secretary has heard me say on probably more occasions than he would have liked to have listened to them?

My question is though: has the Welsh Government produced a profile of expected tax receipts from the devolved taxes so that we can check, in the Finance Committee or in the Assembly as a whole, how the profile works against the expected? 

Llywydd, yes, we have produced such estimates. We published them alongside the final budget in December of last year. They showed, for example, that we anticipate landfill disposals tax to bring in £26 million in the current financial year, falling as that tax is intended to do to £20 million in the year 2021-22. Our forecasts are supplemented by the work of the Office for Budget Responsibility. They published updated forecasts for the two Welsh devolved taxes and Welsh rates of income tax in March of this year. They are broadly comparable with the figures that we produced in December, and both sets of figures will be available to the Finance Committee for them to scrutinise the actual performance of these taxes as that information becomes available during this year and beyond.