The following amendments have been selected: amendment 1 in the name of Julie James and amendment 2 in the name of Rhun ap Iorwerth. If amendment 1 is agreed, amendment 2 will be deselected.

The next item is the second Welsh Conservatives debate, on a national school workforce plan. I call on Darren Millar to move the motion—Darren Millar.

Motion NDM6703 Paul Davies

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales:

1. Notes the growing teacher recruitment crisis in maintained schools in Wales. 

2. Regrets that there has been insufficient Welsh Government action to address the causes of this to date. 

3. Calls on the Welsh Government to work with the Education Workforce Council to develop a national school workforce plan for Wales, in order to:

a) remove unnecessary barriers to the recruitment of overseas trained teachers;

b) recognise the skills of experienced and successful teachers working in further education colleges, and in independent schools and colleges by providing them with qualified teacher status; and

c) establish routes into teaching for experienced teaching support assistants in Wales.

Motion moved.

Diolch, Llywydd. Can I move the motion in the name of Paul Davies on the order paper today in respect of the growing teacher recruitment crisis that we have here in Wales? If the Welsh Government's ambition for all learners to reach their full potential is ever to be realised, then we've got to have an education workforce that is fit for the future and equipped to deliver that aim. But we know that there are signs of a growing crisis in our schools, and there's been insufficient action to date to address it.

Wales has the lowest number of teachers it has ever had since the year 2000. The number of newly qualified teachers in Wales through initial teacher training and education has fallen from almost 2,000 in 2003 to just 1,060 in August 2017. Now, following a review in 2006, the Welsh Government has, rather shortsightedly, cut teacher training student numbers, and, in addition to these cuts, initial teacher training providers have been unable to recruit to Welsh Government targets in each of the last three years. Currently, around one in three secondary postgraduate places and around 8 per cent of primary places are left unfilled.

We know that there are certain factors that are impacting on the number of new applicants, including qualification entry requirements, better incentives to train in other parts of the United Kingdom, difficulties in new teachers securing permanent posts after qualification, concerns about the quality of initial teacher education in Wales, and, of course, concerns over workload, with 88 per cent of teachers who responded to the Education Workforce Council's national workforce survey saying that they were unable to manage their workload, and, on average, teachers working over 50 hours a week. Now, as a result of this, there have been changes in the staffing mix in our schools. The ratio of registered schoolteachers to learning support workers is now almost 1:1. All new schoolteachers are required to complete statutory induction before they're fully registered with the Education Workforce Council, and since this requirement, from a quality perspective, less than 1 per cent of the 16,000 new teachers have failed to meet those standards. I suspect that raises questions in everybody's minds about whether they are sufficiently robust.

And of course it's not just teaching staff. Headteachers as well are under pressure. According to the EWC, as of 1 March there were just under 1,500 headteachers registered, which is a fall of almost a quarter since 2003. Now, of course some of that is as a result of school closures in Wales. We know that this Welsh Government and its predecessors have a good record on closing schools—there are over 160 fewer, according to Estyn, from 2011 to 2017. But it's concerning also to note that the number of applications for headteacher posts in Wales has declined on average to fewer than six. This is compared to over 20 on average back in 2012, and many schools are saying that they're having difficulty recruiting headteachers. We know, again, that there are concerns about workload, there's concern about the lack of funding that's in place in Wales, there's a concern about the pace of change in Wales, in Welsh education, and the burden associated with managerial and administrative tasks when those heads are wanting support. And of course they raise concerns about the multiple layers of accountability that we have here in Wales—LEAs, the consortia, the Welsh Government, the governing body, expectations of parents. All of this piles pressure on headteachers and is leading to them not wanting to apply for new jobs.

In addition to that, of course, we've got great pressures in terms of recruiting Welsh-medium education teachers. Welsh Government data consistently shows that the average number of applications for Welsh-medium posts has been lower. In 2015 the average number of applications was under five compared to around 10 for all posts historically, and a similar pattern has been seen for secondary vacancies as well. Just a quarter of all the teachers registered with the EWC are able to teach through the medium of Welsh, and we're supposed to have a workforce that is going to deliver, or help to deliver, this ambitious aim of a million Welsh speakers by 2050. The evidence suggests that insufficient work is being done in order to get the mix right.

We've also got big shortages in our secondary subjects, particularly for certain subjects like English, maths, religious education and Welsh, in addition to those STEM subjects as well. That's leading to many classes being taught by people who are not subject experts, and as a result of that, the standards are beginning to slip. You only have to look at the PISA results to see us slipping further and further down the scale. So, we've got to sort this mess out, and that's why we have made a suggestion that we need a national education workforce plan that is comprehensive, that looks at recruitment, that looks at retention and that creates and establishes new routes into teaching for categories that are currently registered with the EWC. So, further education lecturers, who have got a good track record at delivering excellent GCSE and A-level results in further education, for some bizarre reason, aren't considered to be eligible to teach in our schools. Why is that? It's absolutely crazy.

In addition we've got overseas-trained teachers here in Wales who could be also be added to the teacher ranks. In other parts of the UK they're considered fit to be able to teach, yet in Wales, for some reason, we've erected barriers to prevent them from teaching in our schools. I've had a headteacher from a school in Australia, a public school in Australia, who was not considered fit to be able to teach in Wales and has been lost to the education workforce here. It's not acceptable. Then of course we've got a wealth of talent in our independent schools and colleges who also should be considered fit to be able to teach in our schools without unnecessary barriers or induction programmes that are put in their way.

I could go on, Presiding Officer, but time is short. I trust that people will support our motion this afternoon so that we can get this comprehensive plan in place and support the education reforms that we all want to see happen here in Wales.

The Deputy Presiding Officer took the Chair.

I have selected two amendments to the motion. If amendment 1 is agreed, amendment 2 will be deselected. Can I call on the Cabinet Secretary for Education to move formally amendment 1, tabled in the name of Julie James?

Amendment 1. Julie James

Delete all and replace with:

1. Notes the ongoing work of Welsh Government to develop a high-quality education profession and attract the best and brightest to teach in Wales, including:

a) reformed and strengthened Initial Teacher Education;

b) targeted incentives for high quality graduates in priority subjects and Welsh-medium education;

c) an ongoing highly targeted digital recruitment campaign;

d) establishing the National Academy for Educational Leadership; and

e) establishing the Teacher Recruitment and Retention Advisory Board.

Amendment 1 moved.

I formally move.

Thank you. Can I now call on Llyr Gruffydd to move amendment 2, tabled in the name of Rhun ap Iorwerth?

Amendment 2. Rhun ap Iorwerth

Add as new point after point 1:

Notes the National Education Union Cymru figures that show that over 50,000 working days a year are lost by teachers due to stress-related illness and that 33.6 per cent of school teachers that responded to the Education Workforce Council national education workforce survey intend to leave their profession in the next three years. 

Amendment 2 moved.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer, and thank you for the opportunity to contribute to this debate. I’m very pleased to move amendment 2 in the name of Plaid Cymru.

I will start by referring to a BBC report back in December that demonstrated that school budgets had declined by some £370 per capita for each pupil in real terms over a period of six years. Now, it’s no surprise, therefore, that some of the teaching unions are warning, as the National Education Union did recently, that there is a hidden financial crisis in our schools, although some would suggest that it isn’t that hidden anymore. Estyn also, in its current annual report, which was published a month ago, points at the direct impact of those cuts, through highlighting that there are fewer qualified teachers involved in the foundation phase in Welsh schools now. But we know, of course, that what cuts to school budgets mean is job losses among teachers, and then, as we find in some of our work as a committee, they have to use other pots of money, such as the pupil development grant and so on, to try to narrow that gap.

But what’s happening, of course, because of these cuts is that there is a loss of capacity within our schools. We’re losing teachers and classroom assistants, who have to be made redundant because of the financial squeeze, and then, naturally, that places more pressure on the remaining staff. It’s no surprise, therefore, that the unions are also telling us that there is a workload crisis among teachers in Wales, and we’ve already heard reference to certain figures. How can you disagree that the situation is unacceptable when the Education Workforce Council says that 90 per cent of teachers say that they can’t manage their workload within their current working hours, or the agreed working hours? And as has already been mentioned, on average, full-time teachers work 50 hours a week, and part-time teachers work 35 hours a week. So, what does that tell us? How can we be surprised, therefore—as we referred to in our amendment—that the 21,000 days lost through stress in 2009 has more than doubled to 52,000 in 2015, with also increasing numbers of teachers leaving the profession prematurely? With the responsibility for teachers’ pay and conditions being devolved to Wales later this year, the time has now come to look anew at how much time teachers have to carry out their responsibilities and to look at that balance between preparation time, teaching time, CPD time and training time. I know that the Cabinet Secretary has started the process of looking at some of these areas, and I would urge her most strongly to take the opportunity to tackle these factors.

So, it’s no surprise, under these current circumstances, that it’s difficult to attract people to teaching, when they see the situation of the profession as it currently exists. We know, of course, that the targets in terms of attracting students to undertake teacher training are being missed substantially. Two thirds of the secondary school teachers that we need to train are currently being trained, which therefore means that there will be dire problems further down the line in terms of having adequate numbers in the teaching profession, and that’s why we will be supporting the central demand of this motion for a national workforce plan. Maths, chemistry, physics, biology, modern languages, information technology, design technology and music are all under the recruitment target for initial teacher training. With the number of Welsh teachers at its lowest point for a decade, what hope is there for us to reach that million Welsh speakers if we don’t have the teachers to teach our pupils?

As the motion notes, it’s worth recognising the increasing reliance in our schools on teaching support assistants—there are nearly as many of them now, as we heard, as there are registered teachers. They are an integral part of the education system, but often work for very small wages and aren’t often recognised as they should be. But we do know that 10 per cent of them—some 3,000 teaching assistants in Wales—are graduates, and there is a need, as we as a party committed some weeks ago in our national conference, to look at the opportunities that exist to give them routes to training. They've already chosen the classroom as their place of work, and one would then feel that there is a strong precedent there for them to contribute to strengthening the workforce and secure sufficiency within the workforce for the years to come. But, of course, alone that isn't enough, and we have to tackle the funding situation and the workload situation or, of course, unfortunately, we will be no closer to the shore. 

I'd like to make a brief intervention to highlight the role technology can have in helping us to develop a robust workforce plan for the future. Only today, the news has been reported of one in three jobs in Wales being at risk from automation by the early 2030s, and that analysis shows that jobs with routine and repetitive tasks—many of which will be able to be replaced by algorithms and by artificial intelligence within the next 20 years. And Bill Gates has commented that we often overestimate the pace of change that we're likely to see over the next two years, but underestimate the pace of change we're likely to see over the next 10 years. Certainly, in the next decade or more, all aspects of society will be impacted by the potential of artificial intelligence, and education is certainly central to that. 

The amendment tabled by Plaid Cymru quotes figures from the NUT showing that 50,000 working days are lost by teachers due to stress-related illness and, in their view, it's getting worse with a third set to leave the profession in the next few years. But, actually, harnessing technology can help alleviate the strain on teachers and greatly assist them in their tasks in the classroom—routine tasks—freeing them up to do what they came into education to do—to teach, to nurture, to coach, to lead, and we really need to be, when we are discussing future plans for the education workforce, thinking about the centrality that technology can have to unleash the potential of teachers.

I'll just mention just a couple of examples that are available using existing technology. One is something called Zzish, which is a virtual teaching assistant that helps teachers instantly see which of their students need help in real time, what they're struggling with through an assessment application, which allows, then, the teachers to track individual performance, the class as a whole, and see clear improvement over time. That's just one example of existing technologies, and, as I say, with the pace of development we're likely to see through artificial development over the next 10 years, that potential will become even greater. 

So, my plea to all Members and to the Government is to put technology at the heart of their thinking of how we can support the teaching sector so they don't feel overburdened by stressful, repetitive, dull tasks, and actually could be freed up to do what they came into the profession to do. Diolch.   

Thanks to the Conservatives for bringing today's debate. We in the UKIP group agree that there is a problem with both recruiting and retaining teachers. To some extent, the issues relating to this problem are common to both England and Wales, but there are also some issues that are peculiar to Wales. 

In some ways, the Welsh Government has made life harder for itself in terms of recruiting teachers because of an over-reliance on particular qualifications. Yes, we need to ensure that we have the right people entering the teaching profession, but we also know that you can't measure things, and certainly you can't measure people, by qualifications alone. Now, we have an education Minister who has frequently made the sensible point that we can't just look at statistics all the time; we have to look at everything in context. We have to see the broader picture. And I think we can actually apply that mindset a little to the recruitment of teachers. So, hopefully, the Minister will apply her own maxim to this issue. 

In our view, an over-reliance on qualifications means that many life-experienced people, some of whom at least would be suitable for the classroom, can't get into the teaching profession because they don't have the relevant qualifications, and it would cost too much time and expense for them to retrain. We could actually relax the rules a little to make it easier for people to retrain. 

Looking at today's motion in a bit more detail, we support the idea of the Welsh Government and the Education Workforce Council working together to develop a school workforce plan for Wales. We would add the caveat that there needs to be input from people who have experienced problems in entering teaching, or who entered the profession and then left it prematurely, so that any such plan is tailored to the needs of suitable potential teachers who have been unable to get into teaching or remain in teaching. We want to make it easier for schools to recruit teachers, and we think that a lot of common abilities are obviously going to exist with college tutors and with teachers at independent schools. So, it should be made easier for this group of people to get the required accreditation so that they can bring their skill set into the school classrooms.

The Conservatives also mention a route into teaching for teaching assistants, or TAs. I've raised the issue of TAs in previous questions to the education Minister. I think there is sometimes a problem with TAs in that once they've been on the relevant courses and have got their qualifications, they find that they've theoretically moved up a level but they don't automatically get upgraded to that status in terms of their pay, and we end up with TAs of a certain level not being able to get jobs at that level, and that leads to some of them becoming cynical and wondering if they were only sent on these courses so that the companies or organisations running these courses got something out of it rather than the people who were being trained. TAs can be a valuable asset to a school. Sometimes, they could be as effective as some of the already qualified teachers, but they lack that basic thing: that piece of paper that says they have a certain qualification. So, I think a career path for TAs that allows them to enter the teaching profession more easily would be a very good idea.

So, we support the Conservative motion today. We also agree with the Plaid amendment, because as Plaid state in their amendment, we do also have to look at the churn rate in the teaching profession, and I'm sure they're right to link problems with staff retention to the stresses of the job. In our view, this stress could be caused by many factors, but there are some that are quite common, including class sizes, and we agree with what the education Minister has said in the past—that we do need smaller class sizes. We also need to get away from too much of a focus on targets and assessments. Ultimately, when you have too many of these, they just become an objective in themselves. In other words, we end up with teachers training pupils to pass tests and exams rather than teaching them something useful. So, a final point is that it would help matters no end if educationists now spent some time thinking about writing curriculums, that, rather than being totally focused on getting pupils to pass exams, actually sought to teach those people something useful. Diolch yn fawr iawn.

Up until now, it's fair for Welsh Government to say they haven't had all the tools they need to confront teacher shortages, but from next year, Welsh Government will set teachers' pay and conditions. From then, there can be no excuse if we do not see improvement in teacher recruitment.

As well as improving terms and conditions, we need to increase the number of routes into teaching. Darren mentioned further education teachers, overseas teachers, teachers from independent schools. Llyr mentioned teaching assistants. I hope the Cabinet Secretary will join me in commending Teach First, which has been doing excellent work recently with the Central South Consortium. They've offered a new way into teaching, and more recently also applied it to those entering via a career change who may otherwise not have been able to commit the time to a PGCE. We should be looking to spread that model further across Wales, and I trust the Cabinet Secretary will now act to do so.

We also need to look at retention. Far too many teachers leave the profession early in their career and never return, and as Plaid Cymru note in their amendment, a third of teachers are considering leaving the profession in the near future. A recent ComRes survey reported that nearly three quarters of the teachers who said they were considering leaving the profession were doing so because of excessive workload.

Now, the Cabinet Secretary has ambitions, I understand, to reduce class sizes to 25 for infant classes, but how on earth is that achievable in an environment where we have the strains and failure to recruit the quality and quantity of teachers we need? Will it be that these teachers are just taking more classes because there are fewer pupils in classes on average, or where is the money coming from? Perhaps we could see a higher proportion of what is kept in Welsh Government or within the local education authorities going down to the schools to support teaching directly.

I also wonder where we are going in terms of the teaching assistant and the support model. We have this one-to-one ratio that Darren referred to now, yet we have far greater complaints of excessive workload than we ever did before, and it seems to get worse year by year. What is the way to get more teachers into the profession given that? Are these teaching assistants and the teaching in small groups rather than a whole class for more of the time—are they adding to these burdens that teachers are facing outside of the direct class teaching time? And, ultimately, is the way to attract more people into teaching to give teachers a substantial pay rise? But how would we afford that, and what do we see from overseas models, where, actually, the evidence and the academic studies don't especially support the ambition of the education Secretary in terms of class size being a key driver of performance.

There are education systems—Singapore is one that comes to mind clearly—where class sizes may be higher but where you have very high-quality teachers from the top institutions, getting the best grades, being attracted into teaching, often by higher salaries, and in some systems actually having larger classes than we do here. I don't present that as my model I give for the future, but I ask the question: is the way to attract more people into teaching the education Secretary's focus on reducing class sizes to 25 infants, or is it a focus on paying higher quality teachers as much as we need to get them into the profession, even if that means that we don't have the profusion of teaching assistance and support that we have seen develop but doesn't seem to have reduced the complaints from teachers of excessive workloads that continue to increase in volume?

The ComRes survey also suggests that one of the positive actions that could be taken to keep more teachers in the profession is more professional development and more opportunities to enter leadership roles. If we were to focus more funding on improving standards of teaching and improving professional development, we could potentially retain more teachers, as well as making it a more attractive profession for people to enter. In that respect, I do welcome the education Secretary's new academy and obvious passion for it, and the positive response I've heard from educators. It is imperative that the Welsh Government uses its new powers over terms and conditions and takes the action needed to arrest the crisis in Welsh education.

Can I now call the Cabinet Secretary for Education, Kirsty Williams?

Thank you very much, Deputy Presiding Officer. I'm really sorry this is only a half-an-hour debate, which means I only have four minutes to sum up, because there are some things where I agree very passionately with what Members have said this afternoon, and there are some things that I vehemently disagree with this afternoon.

Gareth, can I be absolutely clear, there is intrinsic value in children leaving our schools with examinations and qualifications that allow them to go on to something else? Our education system can be about more than that, but to say that we're not doing a useful thing for our children in getting them to pass tests, exams and to attain qualifications is not one of them. And we have to, I have to say, Mr Reckless, see education in the cultural context in which it's delivered. And I don't think there are many parents in Wales who would want to see the effects that there are on child well-being in many of the countries, including Singapore, that you have talked about in the educational system here. Indeed, a group of parents went recently to the far east to look at education methods in the far east, and one parent said to me, 'Whatever you do to improve the situation in Wales, please do not subject my child to what we saw when we visited those countries.' So, we have to see education in the cultural context, but does that mean we can do better? Of course it does, and you know that I am determined to do better because it is my, it is this Government's national mission to deliver a reformed and successful education system in Wales for its young people. An education system that is a source of national pride and enjoys public confidence. And I recognise that, above all else, it is the quality of teaching that transforms young people's lives, and therefore it is essential that our reforms support a sufficient supply of high-quality, well-qualified teachers to underpin our national reform journey.

Our teachers of tomorrow are absolutely integral to our national mission, and I've made very clear my commitment to attract and retain more highly qualified graduates into teaching because our young people—your children, my children, all of our children—deserve nothing less. That's why all teachers in Wales need to be qualified, unlike other countries such as England, where the use of unqualified people in our schools is growing at pace. The overall teacher vacancy rate in Wales remains comparatively low, although I would be the first to admit that there sometimes can be local difficulties in recruiting into certain subjects and into certain phases.

Now, Plaid's amendment states that the recent national workforce survey showed that 34 per cent of teachers said they were considering leaving the profession. That is a matter of fact. Yet, to put this into perspective, out of 30,610 teaching practitioners, just over 1,600 stated that they were considering leaving the profession, for some of whom it may have been a result of retirement. I am pleased that, in contrast, 47 per cent of teachers stated that they were looking to continue to develop and strengthen their practice, with others looking to progress on to leadership roles. I would agree with you, Mark, that ensuring that we have a consistent national approach to professional learning and career development is a really, really important point, and we are working on that at the moment, as, I also recognise, is the issue of workload, and we continue to work with the unions and experts regarding workload, especially through the prism of the devolution of teachers' pay and conditions.

With regard to recruitment, Deputy Presiding Officer, in October I announced an improved priority subject incentive scheme, and a new incentive scheme targeting Welsh-medium postgraduates to address some of the complexities that we face. Many of the points raised this afternoon are already in train. The teacher recruitment and retention advisory board, which I have set up, is reviewing international evidence to consider how we support people into the profession—all those wishing to enter into the profession through alternative routes. That's people who are wanting to change careers. That is indeed foreign teachers. It's indeed upskilling people who are already in the education workforce but want QTS. But when I do that, it will not be at the expense of lowering down standards. I am determined to maintain a standard that requires people to go into the profession. We wouldn't be saying some of these things about the medical profession, would we? We wouldn't accept it for that profession, and why would we accept it in this case?

But there are ways in which we can find new ways for people to find themselves in classrooms if that is their calling, because I want teaching in Wales to be a first-choice profession, so that we can attract the very, very best, and our reformed initial teacher education offer will ensure that more people will want to train in Wales and will give them the very best start to their careers. These reforms enable the profession to take a central role delivering and leading change, as well as creating a stable, high-quality system that enables institutions and individuals to flourish. And it will do exactly that, Gareth: our teachers will be intrinsic to the development of our new curriculum. They will be at the forefront of that. 

I have established the leadership academy, which will continue to work with the Welsh Government, so that leaders and leadership are supported to enable the objectives of our national mission—supporting existing headteachers and nurturing those who want to go on to lead Welsh schools. The academy will engage with leaders, identify international evidence and create a network for collaboration to help inform the profession and make a difference to young people.

Deputy Presiding Officer, the overall objective of our national mission is simple, clear and ambitious. Working together with all of our partners, we will raise standards, we will reduce the attainment gap and, as I said, deliver an education system that is a source of national pride and enjoys public confidence. And to achieve this, we will help everyone, including everyone teaching in our schools, to be the best that they can be, so that they, and the children that they teach, can reach their full potential.

Thank you very much. I call Darren Millar to reply to the debate.

Thank you very much, Deputy Presiding Officer. I know I've got very limited time, so I just want to refer, if I can, to the Cabinet Secretary's comments. I heard what you had to say, and I acknowledge that some work is going on in the Welsh Government to try to address this problem. I'm pleased that you at least acknowledge that we have a problem, even if you don't acknowledge that it's a crisis. What baffles me is that when you were in opposition you took forward a comprehensive piece of legislation on nurse staffing levels, which required a national workforce plan and effort. Why are you rejecting a national workforce plan for our education system, for our schools? Why are you saying that you don't want to work with the EWC to develop one? Because that's what you're doing by trying to vote down our motion today. It just doesn't make any sense. You say that the quality of teaching is what matters, and you're not prepared to dumb down on the quality and have unqualified teachers in our classrooms, and yet that's precisely what we've got. We've got people who aren't qualified to deliver English lessons, and yet 20 per cent of our English lessons have people who are teaching those lessons who are not qualified in English as their specific subject. Seventeen per cent in maths; 27 per cent in religious education; and 23 per cent of teachers who are in Welsh lessons aren't qualified to deliver in Welsh.

So, the reality is that what you're saying is supporting a system that continues to have people who are not qualified to deliver those specific subjects in those areas. So, listen to some common sense, let's have a national education workforce plan, let's make sure that you work with all of the stakeholders to develop it, let's look at these new routes into the teaching profession for learning support workes, for people in further education and people who are qualified by experience. Let's take some examples internationally, both good, bad and indifferent, in part of that learning process, and make sure that we have an education workforce that is fit for the future.

The proposal is to agree the motion without amendment. Does any Member object? [Objection.] Therefore, we defer voting on this item until voting time.

Voting deferred until voting time.