Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:33 pm on 18 April 2018.
I would like to begin by thanking members of the external affairs committee for their work on this report and I would also like to thank Steffan Lewis, who can't be here to take part in this debate today but who has made a significant contribution to the work of the committee and will continue to do so when he's able to join them again in the future. Brexit may not have been a policy chosen by the Welsh Government, but the implementation of the EU referendum result will have significant implications for the future of our nation. Our economy, our environment, our public services—there is little that won't be affected by the terms of the separation deal between the UK and the EU. The uncertainty that this report highlights is outside the Welsh Government's control. It poses a real challenge to the preparedness of the Government, business and the public sector that our future in Wales rests in the hands of negotiators from the UK and EU and depends to such a large extent on the shape of the final deal.
This report reveals a number of worrying gaps in the work that is being done to ready Wales for the many possible eventual outcomes of the Brexit negotiations. It's vital that the Welsh Government's preparation for Brexit is properly scrutinised. We need to see improved communication and leadership so that Wales can be Brexit-ready in time for our separation from the EU. The unwillingness of the Welsh Government to even contemplate the steps necessary to prepare for a 'no deal' Brexit scenario is deeply concerning. I accept that a 'no deal' Brexit would be catastrophic. When the House of Lords EU Committee investigated a 'no deal' Brexit, they could find no possible upside. We could see empty shelves in supermarkets and a 20 per cent rise in food prices, flights to Europe could be grounded on exit day, and we could see miles of tailbacks at our ports. It's deeply negligent of the Tories to toy with the economic future of the UK by considering a 'no deal' Brexit as an option. I understand that the idea is that a 'no deal' Brexit would be a Tory-made mess and that it would therefore be the responsibility of the Tories in Westminster to clean it up, but where devolved areas of competency are affected, the Welsh Government will have a responsibility to do whatever possible to mitigate the effects. Wales must be prepared for any eventuality, and the Welsh Government has a responsibility to plan for this almost unthinkable outcome.
For individual organisations, many already feeling overstretched, there just isn't the capacity to think about Brexit when there is so much day-to-day business to be getting on with. It is the Welsh Government's responsibility to provide the guidance and to ensure that the right information is getting to the right people, particularly in our public services. It's alarming that this report finds that a number of sectors have felt that they are lacking the information that they need to prepare adequately. We know that the implications of Brexit on our public services could be huge. There'll be the loss of the £680 million of European funding every year, with no real assurances yet from the UK Government that we'll see that funding replaced.
A report published today by the Global Future think tank suggests that a final agreement in line with the UK Government's desired bespoke deal would cut the amount of funding available for public services at a UK level by £615 million per week—equivalent to 22 per cent of what is currently being spent. Meanwhile, we know that there could be disruption to our access to medicines and medial research. Theresa May's plea to be allowed to retain associate membership to the European Medicines Agency after Brexit was rebuffed by the Commission because she also wants to leave the single market. Welsh patients could find themselves missing out on treatments that they need and the most cutting-edge research. Canada often gets new drugs six to 12 months after the EU. If the UK ends up with a similar style deal, will we be in the same boat?
We cannot be complacent about the scale of the challenge we may face, but the ongoing uncertainty we face about the outcome of Brexit negotiations makes any preparedness very difficult. This report is a valuable contribution to the discussion about how Wales can begin to get ready for the impact that Brexit could have, and I urge the Welsh Government to act upon its recommendations.