Questions now from the party leaders. The leader of the UKIP group, Neil Hamilton.

Diolch yn fawr, Llywydd. The First Minister is no doubt familiar with the aphorism that all political lives end in failure, unless cut off at midstream at a happy juncture. Is the First Minister's political career still in midstream, and is this a happy juncture?

Well, I think the leader of UKIP is an example of life after death in politics, although I'm not sure what kind of political life it is for him. From my perspective, I've outlined a timetable. I think it's important the country has continuity, and it's important of course that everything is in place to prepare for my successor, whoever that might be.

Well, we shall miss him when he's gone. And I want to move on now. I don't know what the First Minister's long-term objectives are, and whether he plans to stand for the Assembly in the next Assembly elections and therefore the extent to which he retains an interest in whether we expand the size of this institution or not. The Assembly Commission has embarked upon a consultation exercise, the results of which have not yet been made public, but nobody has actually gauged the feeling amongst the public in general, as far as I'm aware, and so UKIP have plugged the gap and done an opinion poll, which has been carried out by opinion research, a respected market research company. And we asked the public, 'Do you support an increase in Assembly Members at the National Assembly for Wales, from 60 to either 80 or 90?' Only 32 per cent of respondents were in favour of an increase, 42 per cent, and 26 per cent don't know. Does the First Minister think it right that we should proceed with this exercise without carrying the public with us?

Well, we shall see what happens at the next election in terms of whether UKIP are correct in their analysis of public opinion. If he wishes to know my plans post 2021, he is welcome to look to join the Labour Party and attend the general management committee of the next Bridgend constituency Labour Party, and I'm sure he will be enlightened as a result of that.

Can I say that it's hugely important that this debate is a sensible one and not one driven by what is seen as political expediency? I have been in this Assembly since 1999. I confess I only spent just over a year on the backbenches, but I do know that there is immense pressure and strain on backbenchers, of all parties, because we have moved on from being what was, in effect, a kind of administrative body. I remember standing here—or in the old building—and introducing the potatoes originating in Egypt Order and the undersized whiting Order, and we used to debate them. The level of scrutiny was nothing like as deep as it necessarily is now, and that has to be reflected, not just in the working practices of Members, but in the numbers of Members, because we have proceeded far beyond where we were in 1999, and a sensible debate has to be had as to what the correct number of AMs is. I notice that Northern Ireland, with a population just over half that of Wales, has 109, and Scotland has 129. We must look sensibly and carefully at what the right number is for the Assembly.

Well, I hear what the First Minister says, that we're all overworked, but I'm not sure whether that's going to strike much of a chord with the general public. Before the Assembly was set up, of course, there was a referendum, and before the Assembly's powers were increased, there was a referendum in 2011. Why should we not have a referendum on whether to expand the size of the Assembly on this occasion?

Well, the Member is talking about fundamental constitutional changes. I don't believe this is one. I think it is perfectly possible for parties to examine this and take their case to the people of Wales through an election—if that's what it takes—but, certainly, you've always got to be careful about this and it's never going to be popular to say to people, 'Let's have more politicians'. Let's all accept that, but I think we have to counter that by saying to people we have to have the right number of people to do the job properly. It's in nobody's interests to have Assembly Members in a position where they may not be able, in the future, to scrutinise in the way that they would want to, and that is a situation that we need to avoid by looking at the numbers that would be in this body in years to come. 

The Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood. 

Diolch, Llywydd. Before my questions, I'd like to acknowledge the announcement made by the First Minister on the weekend. First Minister, you have held this role for a long time and you've had a lengthy term in Government prior to becoming First Minister, and I know that you and I have had our political differences, and I'm sure that we will continue to have those differences, but I genuinely wish you all the best, and your family, for the future.

Now, we still have time to hold you to account, and I'm sure no-one would expect us to let up on that. So. with that in mind, can you please tell us how many people in Wales are in employment on a zero-hours contract? Has it increased or decreased since 2016?  

It's very difficult to give an answer to that question, because, of course, the private sector is not something that comes under our control, but what we have done, however, of course, is to effectively outlaw zero-hours contracts in the public sector. We want to make sure of this, for example, in the care sector. The care sector is a foundation sector, as far as we are concerned, and we will use our powers to the utmost—we will push the boundaries of our powers—to make sure that zero-hours contracts are not there, as far as the public sector is concerned. There is a job to be done, yet, in terms of ensuring that public sector bodies ensure there are no zero-hours contracts in place when they subcontract, that is an area that still needs some work. 

Well, perhaps I can help you, First Minister. Proportionately, more people in Wales are now employed on zero-hours contracts than any other UK nation. If I can put it another way, under a Labour Government, more people per head of the population are in unstable, zero-hours work than in any other country in the UK. Could the First Minister point the 43,000 people in Wales on zero-hours contracts to where in his Government's economic action plan there is a strategy to stop this abhorrent employment practice? 

Two things: firstly, it'll be in the economic contract. There will be a very heavy focus on fair employment. Secondly, as I announced on Saturday, there will be a fair work commission established. The job of that commission will be to look at all levers—some legislative potentially, some not—in order to make sure that, as far as we can go in terms of the powers that we have, we truly make Wales a fair work nation.  

Of course, some people want the flexibility of this kind of employment, but most people don't. For that matter, Labour has supposedly committed to end their use. Now, with this in mind, I'd like to point you to page 45 of Labour's 2017 election manifesto. Alongside boasting about the Welsh Government's clearly false record in ending the use of zero-hours contracts, it contains a commitment to legislate against them. We know from the NHS pay cap fiasco that this Government has a habit of disowning its own manifesto. So, how about the programme for government? And I'll quote from page 13 of your programme for government, which says that you will,

'limit the use of zero hours contracts'.

So, let me put a simple question to you, First Minister: did you mislead people, or was it incompetence that has led Wales to becoming the zero-hours contracts capital of the UK? 

When it comes to the public sector, we have delivered. We've ensured that there are far fewer zero-hours contracts. We want to drive them down as far as possible in terms of subcontractors as well. But the second point is this: she is right to point to the 2017 general election manifesto. Of course, that would have used powers that are not available to us as a devolved institution or a Government in order to move forward in creating a fair work nation across the whole of the UK. Unfortunately, we did not see a Labour Government elected at that time, but I've absolutely no doubt that, at the next general election, we will have a Labour Prime Minister. 

The leader of the opposition, Andrew R.T. Davies. 

Thank you, Presiding Officer. Could I join the sentiments of the leader of Plaid Cymru in acknowledging the statement you made to the Labour Party conference, First Minister? There will be a time to pay tribute in this Chamber to your time in public life and service here as First Minister and Minister, but, without doubt, obviously, this will now form an election in the Labour Party to find a successor to your good self. But in that time that you remain First Minister, I wish you all the very best, and ultimately I do hope that you are able to keep the wheels of Government moving forward, because, as I've said many times in this place, I might disagree politically with you and the Members on that frontbench, but 3 million people depend on the decisions that you make in a whole raft of public services, and ultimately those public services are obviously the crown jewel of what we require here in Wales. 

With that in mind, First Minister, I'd like to ask you about the economic action plan that was brought forward by the Welsh Government in December. One of the key planks, surely, of any economic action plan is to increase take-home pay here in Wales. Regrettably, we know that we have the lowest take-home pay of any part of the United Kingdom—£498 is the average take-home pay here in Wales, against a UK average of £550. We know for a fact that, since the start of devolution—a Welsh pay packet is £49 behind a Scottish pay packet, which, at the start of devolution, was exactly the same for a Welsh worker and a Scottish worker. Why, with 17,500 words in the economic action plan, are wages only mentioned twice if it isn't a priority for your Government to make sure we close that gap to invigorate economically our communities in Wales?

Well, first of all, I do have to point out, of course, that the reduction or removal of in-work benefits has not helped in terms of people's take-home pay in Wales. We've seen the effect that has had. We are no longer, unfortunately, as a result of the actions of the UK Government, in a position where we can say to people, 'If you get a job, you'll be better off', and that is surely a disincentive for people to gain employment.

He asked what we will do. Well, there are two issues here: first of all, fair work—making sure that people get a fair day's pay for a fair day's work, and that's what the Fair Work Commission will be charged to do. And, secondly, productivity: productivity undoubtedly leads to a driving up of people's wages. Now, this is a UK problem. It is a problem that I know is more acute in Wales, I accept that, but it is an issue that we should all strive to overcome. Why is it, for example, that a German worker gets far more out of the same machine than a worker in the UK would? Well, part of it's training, a heavy emphasis on training, whether it's in-work training through employers—Jobs Growth Wales is an example of that—also, of course, working with our FE colleges to make sure people have the skills they need to increase their personal incomes, and that is the way, to me, to look to drive up GVA per head.

As I said, regrettably, over the 20 years, we've seen that massive gap open up between a Scottish worker and a Welsh worker, and obviously, sadly, Wales stay at the bottom of the league table when it comes to wages. I have to say the answer you gave me doesn't give me much confidence that there is going to be that big change by, certainly, the early 2020s, if not the mid 2020s. That money coming into communities the length and breadth of Wales surely you'd accept would reinvigorate those communities, and one key plank of economic activity is house building. We've heard already from the Member for Caerphilly the importance of house building. Last year there was a 10 per cent reduction in house building in Wales. Now, if you have lower wages then you've got low demand for houses, because obviously it's difficult to make the economic case for house builders to invest in areas. So, surely you can see the link. Why isn't the economic action plan more prescriptive in the help that the Welsh Government will give to assist house building in Wales? Because, as I said, last year alone we saw a 10 per cent decrease in house building here in Wales. 

Well, the latest statistics show that we continue, I'd argue, to have a positive trend in the number of homes completed in Wales, with October to December 2017 data showing an increase of 29 per cent on the previous quarter. During the 12 months to the end of December 2017, a total of 6,885 new dwellings were completed. That's up by 4 per cent on the 12 months to December 2016. 

What are we doing as a Government? Well, first of all, of course, ensuring—[Interruption.] David Melding's very lively today, I must say. We are working with our partners, of course, to deliver against our key commitment of providing 20,000 affordable homes, and, on top of that, of course, we have Help to Buy—Wales. We know that that's firmly established. It's a £290 million investment in the second phase. That will support the construction of over 6,000 new homes by 2021, helping first-time buyers get onto the property ladder. And, of course, the changes to land transaction tax, they will help to stimulate the market, particularly for those who are most in need, who have the lowest incomes. We see, from the figures that I've given already, the positive effect of what we're doing. 

I wish I could join you in being positive about those figures, First Minister. As David Melding pointed out, we need 12,000 houses per year to meet the demand. As I pointed out, the figures—not my figures, the industry figures—show a 10 per cent decline in house building last year. I've indicated about wage restraint here in Wales. After 20 years of Labour in Government, we are the lowest-paid nation of the United Kingdom compared to other parts of the UK. That is a deplorable record. One of the things that you have championed in your time as First Minister is obviously the new M4 relief road, as you believe that will create great economic potential not just for the south-east of Wales, but across the whole of the south Wales corridor. Can you confidently say that, with the intention you announced on Saturday, the M4 relief road will proceed on the basis of the support the Government has given to date—namely, continuation of support for the black route—as you have indicated that has been a personal goal for you to deliver? And, now we know that there will be a new First Minister, can you say that that will remain a Welsh Government priority?

I don't think I've expressed a strong preference for either route, and nor can I, because I'll be the decision maker who takes the final decision. There is no doubt there's a problem. We can all see what the issue is in the tunnels at Brynglas, and that problem is not easy to resolve. I will consider the evidence of the planning inspector when I get that evidence. But it's not just about roads, it's also about the metro and making sure that public transport is fit for purpose. We know that Cardiff Central station has 11 million people going through it every year. That number is bound to increase. There is no road solution for people coming in from the north into Cardiff. There's nothing—you know, we can't expand North Road. The A470 will always have a choke point as people come into Cardiff. The answer to that is multifaceted, to me. It means making sure there are more frequent services on the existing railway lines, better services, affordable services, new lines being opened up, particularly through light rail, and also, of course, the promotion of active travel. I know my colleague the AM for Llanelli is going to point out that, and he's quite right to do so, because Cardiff has great potential for ensuring that more people use bikes and walking in order to get to work. So, yes, roads are important, we know that, but so are the trains, both light and heavy rail, and of course what has traditionally been seen as recreation by some, but really is a form of transport, and that's cycling.