Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:08 pm on 1 May 2018.
I thank you very much for those comments and particularly welcome the way in which you opened the remarks in a positive sense. I will certainly seek to move forward in that spirit as well. You mentioned that you are pleased to hear that I'm keen to work with local authorities, particularly, to start building at scale and pace, and you would have heard me talk in the Chamber previously about the work that I'm doing to try and work with local authorities to increase the borrowing cap. I just would provide an update, really, that I've consulted with local authorities on a couple of proposals. One is in the short term: how do we use that unallocated borrowing capacity that we have, so around £17 million—how do we focus that at the local authorities that are ready to build? And to also challenge them over the medium term to work up some potential schemes that could be brought forward very quickly, should additional money and borrowing capacity be made available from the UK Government? We're certainly having those discussions with the Treasury, and as soon as I'm able to update Members further on that, I'll be pleased to do so, but, as I say, there is work progressing with that.
In terms of housing need, I'm very aware of the Public Policy Institute for Wales report that Alan Holmans was commissioned to do and was published back in 2015. I do recognise that those figures now need to be updated. I know there's been much debate between you and Welsh Government over several years on those figures. You refer to the alternative projection, which is the projection that suggests we would need 12,000 units a year. Those alternative projections, as I understand it, were based on an earlier set of household projections—the 2006-based census—and those don't take account of the most recent changes to household size and type, as recorded by that census. So, we are moving on a different trajectory, which is why we need to look again and do some further work and reassess those figures. So, we are doing that.
My officials have met with experts, with a view to developing a robust piece of work that will look at housing need across Wales, and it will very much be in the context of that that the review takes place. I would also say that officials have been gathering information about the method of determining housing need that is used by other UK Governments, and they've certainly had some constructive conversations with officials—from the Scottish Government particularly. So, this information, combined with advice from external experts, will help determine the approach that we take, but I just want to reassure Members how seriously I take the issue of housing need in the future and having robust targets that are achievable but also very much reflect the need that is in the community, but also looking at housing need, breaking it down into the different types of tenure and different types of housing: social housing, intermediate housing, affordable housing and, then, market housing.
Where Welsh Government does have the opportunity— . Although we don't have many levers in terms of market housing, actually I believe that we can create a climate for improving the delivery of, and speeding up the delivery of market housing. One of the ways that we can do that can be through our innovative housing programme, which I think will provide us with ways in which to build houses at a much quicker pace in future. I was very pleased that, last Thursday, we opened the 2018-19 round for applications, and this is the first time, now, that we've opened this not just to social landlords, but also the private sector, so that private sector builders can apply for funding in order to support the innovation element of their build as well. I think that this could give us the opportunity to see more innovative housing built at scale. This is a £90 million investment, over three years; £19 million was awarded to 22 innovative projects over the last year, so £71 million remains. So, there is plenty of opportunity for good schemes to come forward, but I'm very clear that although we're at this stage of innovating and testing out lots of different ideas, we are going to have to come to a point where we actually, through the evaluation of the various different projects, decide what's best for Wales and where we want to put our efforts in terms of creating the kind of scale of build that we would want to see in the future.
In terms of whether I'm confident that we are going to hit our 20,000 target—yes, I am. And I can tell you that we're breaking down that target: 5,500 units of social housing grant; 1,500 housing finance grant 2; 6,000 of the units will be through Help to Buy; 1,000 will be rent to own, or shared ownership, and those are the two schemes I've particularly been highlighting today; 1,000 we would hope would be built through the local authority council house building programme; 1,000 through the innovative design programme; 1,000 through section 106 agreements; 800 through Vibrant and Viable Places; and RSL self-funded build—2,500. That would actually take us over the 20,000 mark. And one of the reasons that I am confident that we are able to achieve that target is because, as Members will be aware, house builders often work on a three-year rolling programme, so we're able to see the kind of projects that are coming down the line and the volume of houses that are in the pipeline. That does give us confidence that we will be able to hit that target. But as I say, I would like the review to be looking at setting even more stretching targets for the future.