Diolch, Dirprwy Llywydd. 

Following the cancellation of electrification on the Great Western main line between Cardiff and Swansea, the Secretary of State for Transport announced the development of business cases for rail enhancement schemes across Wales, including improvements to the main lines in south and north Wales, enhancements to the line between Wrexham and Bidston, and improvements around Swansea and to Cardiff Central station. This commitment is welcome. I have made it clear to the Secretary of State my expectation that development and delivery now needs to happen at pace to implement early in the next decade improvements for passengers in Wales who are experiencing slow speeds, poor reliability and inadequate network facilities on a daily basis.

Electrification of the Great Western main line is a starting point for future enhancements; it is not the final destination. The next Wales and borders rail services contract—the first to be designed and delivered in Wales—will deliver transformational change to passengers. However, our train services rely on efficient and reliable railway infrastructure to deliver the speeds and capacities that meet the connectivity needs of people in our cities, towns and rural communities.

I have also recently shared my ambitions for the new Great Western franchise with Members and reiterated my expectations for the west coast partnership franchise procurement with the Secretary of State. Back in 1977, it was possible to get from London to Cardiff on the then new high-speed train services in one hour and 45 minutes, 15 minutes shorter than the current fastest journey times. At that time, the service to Manchester from London took 2.5 hours. As a result of the £9 billion west coast main line upgrade in the early 2000s, Manchester is now just two hours and five minutes from London, the same as London to Cardiff, even though Manchester, of course, is 50 km further away. This investment has also allowed journeys from Stafford to London in one hour and 20 minutes—a similar distance to Newport to London, which is 30 minutes slower.

Following the curtailed electrification of the Great Western main line, Cardiff to London journey times will, at best, be one hour and 45 minutes, the same as 30 years ago, and Swansea will still be two hours and 45 minutes. Similarly, the train journey from Cardiff Central to Bristol Temple Meads is slow and infrequent, hindering the development of stronger cross-border economic bonds.

Meanwhile, the UK Government is investing £55 billion in high speed 2 line to further reduce journey times to Manchester to just over one hour and to provide significant improvements in journey times across the midlands, the north of England and Scotland. If the UK Government make the right choices on HS2, particularly around the Crewe hub and proposed service patterns, it will provide significant economic benefit to north Wales.

Connectivity across the south-east of England is being further enhanced by the £15 billion Crossrail scheme and across the north of England through the £3 billion trans-Pennine route programme, while ambitious plans are being developed for Northern Powerhouse rail and Crossrail 2. Whilst these investments will deliver much-needed capacity on the UK rail network, their impact on journey times will be even more significant. Those places being directly served by HS2 will benefit from significantly faster journey times to London, potentially reducing the competitiveness of locations in Wales for inward investment. The UK Government's own figures suggest that HS2 will have a negative impact of up to £200 million per annum on the economy of south Wales.