Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 6:00 pm on 9 May 2018.
Simon Thomas—well, I was more than happy, actually, to let my former colleague on the Finance Committee shine by opening this debate. I'm happy to encourage and support other Assembly Members—[Interruption.] I'm always more than happy to have the last word, as well, which I've got today. [Laughter.] I agree wholeheartedly with the concerns, actually, that you raised about pubs, and you're right that they don't pay traditional business rates. I think we're all aware of that, and that should certainly be looked at. I know they're looking at that in England, and it's probably been long overlooked across the United Kingdom as a whole, and we're now seeing the problems that are happening to pubs because of that. So, that was a good point that you made.
Andrew R.T. Davies, you reeled off—I didn't have time to write them down—a long list of projects in Wales and Cardiff that, let's face it, have received considerable investment and are receiving considerable investment. And Andrew said that small variations in tax policy compared with across the border could have a disproportionate effect—a perfectly reasonable point to make. Yes, there may be cases where, because of the changes in this policy and other tax policies, there are people who are paying less tax—that is to be welcomed—but you also have to look at those people and those businesses that will end up paying more. They might be a small number, but if it's a disproportionately high amount that they are paying and if they are the investors in the economy at that level of economic development, then that is a concern.
But I do understand—and we discussed this at length in committee—the Welsh Government's position that this is still early days. Of course it is. Nonetheless, Cabinet Secretary, warning signs should always be heeded. As Neil Hamilton said—well, Neil Hamilton supported the motion. You supported the Government amendment, which deletes the motion. You didn't support the 'delete' bit, to be fair. You support Plaid Cymru's amendments as well. I think you're generally happy with this debate today, so I don't think you really mind which way this debate goes, and I think you've won anyway there, Neil. I think you found considerable amusement as well at different points today. But I agree with you that tax competition is not necessarily a bad thing. As a former Conservative, of course, you would say that, and, of course, as a Welsh Conservative myself, I agree with that as well. However, as a Welsh Assembly Member, I think it is a bad thing if that tax competition happens to be detrimental to Wales and positive for England. Of course, that was always the danger that we were facing. Yes, tax devolution is very good for increasing accountability, and it's very good for us here having the levers of power that are necessary to improve our economy. But the flipside of that, which has to be watched, has to be monitored, is to make sure that that doesn't end up with our economy being on a poorer footing.
You mentioned quantitative easing. It wasn't just the UK Conservative Government, of course; it was the UK Labour Government that initially introduced the concept of quantitative easing into the British economy. I do think, actually, if you say you don't want quantitative easing, then the cuts would probably have been deeper. So, I think, at that time, it was a tool that was a valuable one for a Government to look at using. Of course, there was the feared effect of higher inflation that hasn't fed through, certainly yet, into the system, but I think that, at that point in time, clearly, we did go through difficult times. But I think you have to recognise it was the Labour Government that introduced that concept. So, something clearly had gone wrong with the economy to require that.
Now, as economists are well known for saying, predictions are normally always wrong. We took that evidence on Finance Committee. That doesn't mean that they're not useful. In fact, they are very useful, so long as you recognise that there can be inaccuracy in them and that you're prepared to revise those predictions.
I've got to mention Mike Hedges before I close, who quoted—I was looking for the quote—Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr, 1904:
'Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society.'
Of course, I think we all agree with that. Nobody here would say that we don't want to pay tax. I would, however, say that, of course, it's not just the raising of the tax that is important; it's the way that that tax is spent that is all important, as well. As the Welsh Government has more powers, more tax powers at its disposal, then it becomes increasingly important that the Welsh Government does prove that it can spend that money as efficiently as possible.
David Melding, you spoke about the rebalancing of the UK economy, using London as a resource but making sure we strike out on our own and develop the Welsh economy as best as possible—and that is what tax devolution is all about. You said, Cabinet Secretary, that you were prepared to monitor, to evaluate, and to make changes if you think that the policies that are in place relating to tax rises are wrong. Well, we're receiving a lot of concerns from businesses that they feel they are wrong. I would urge you to keep this situation under review and to make sure that the Welsh Government does act to change any tax policies that do prove to be uncompetitive to our economy in the future.