3. What are the financial implications of failing to retain a common market for the trading of goods between Wales and the rest of Europe? OAQ52377

Well, I thank the Member for that very pertinent leading-on question. The UK economy has already moved from being one of the fastest growing major economies to the slowest in the G7, due to the uncertainty created by the UK Government's chaotic handling of Brexit. Any reduction in access to European markets will reduce growth, cost jobs and threaten the resources available to fund public services.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary. I'd like to focus on the possible implications for the food we import if we suddenly find ourselves having to impose tariffs and chaos at our borders. We currently import £9 billion of fruit and vegetables from the European Union, compared with the £1 billion-worth of fruit and vegetables that we grow in this country, so this is a very significant issue in terms of the type of food that we need to eat to keep healthy. I know that some elements in the Conservative Party are enthusiastic advocates of importing cheap food from the United States, like chlorinated chicken and hormone-induced beef, but, for the majority, we want to know the conditions under which our food is grown and, in particular, I wondered what consideration has been given to the issue of food security, because, if we cannot get hold of the products that we currently rely on, clearly, there is going to be a massive spike in the cost of those products and simply not enough available to feed the population. We still don't know what the future of pillar 1 payments might be. Gove talks a good game on pillar 2 and the environmental benefits of public goods, but what is going to be the implication for food production, for the feeding of our very own population, if we do not have free movement of these essential goods from Europe?

Well, I thank Jenny Rathbone for that follow-up question. In my answer to Neil Hamilton, I focused on the impact on food exporters of a hard Brexit, but she is absolutely right to point to the impact on food that we use in this country if we either were to have a hard Brexit that meant we were no longer able to import fresh food in a timely manner, or the sort of Brexit that Brexit hardliners point to, in which we would sacrifice environmental and food standards in order to try and earn a living across the world. Neither of those are acceptable to the Welsh Government, nor to people here in Wales. I was the health Minister during the period of the horse meat scandal, when we saw what can go wrong when you don't have proper standards—[Interruption.]—when you don't have proper standards to ensure that the food that ends up on people's plates here is of a proper—[Interruption.] I'm afraid there are no—[Interruption.]

Mark Reckless.

I'm amazed the Cabinet Secretary should absolve the EU of all responsibility for the horse meat scandal. Extraordinarily, he describes Jenny Rathbone as 'absolutely right' when she refers to us having to impose tariffs, but, Cabinet Secretary, isn't it a choice for this country whether we impose tariffs? Given that we've had a free trade area with the EU, we could maintain that unilaterally for up to 10 years without having to change our World Trade Organization tariffs elsewhere. And is it not the case that, in the scenario where we did go to WTO tariffs, which I certainly do not support, there would be positive implications for many sectors? We currently have—. A quarter of our whole beef consumption is supplied by Ireland. If we suddenly see a 50 per cent tariff on dairy and beef coming from Ireland, will that not give huge opportunities to the beef and dairy sector in Wales?

The Member is a purveyor of some of the most pernicious myths about Brexit, it seems to me. I'd like to take him to meet some people who are in the beef industry in Wales to hear what they have to say about the risks posed to their livelihood of the sort of policies that he would pursue, and it is absolutely not the case, Llywydd, and it is one of those Brexiteer myths that are peddled time and again, that, somehow, by leaving the European Union, we move into some rule-free space in which we can do anything we like whenever we like it. That will never be the case. Whatever arrangements we are in, there will be rules that we will have to take, and, because we will no longer be part of the European Union, we will no longer have the negotiating capacity that comes with being part of a major world bloc, the terms on which we will have to strike the sort of deals that he takes will be terms that will be highly disadvantageous to this country.

I think Jenny Rathbone's made some very important points there on the implications of Brexit for communities right across the United Kingdom. My constituency is a perfect example, really, with a constituency that voted to leave, but one with industry at its heart, and a very important industry at its heart. Getting that right balance between leaving the European Union and getting exactly the best deal is extremely difficult, but it's one that is crucially vital. Airbus, within the constituency, is a perfect example of European contribution and collaboration. My question is simple, Cabinet Secretary: does the Cabinet Secretary share my concerns that businesses are already having to plan for the worst type of deal just because there is no clarity or leadership from the UK Government?

Can I thank Jack Sargeant for that? In the comparatively short time that he has been a Member of the Assembly, he has already been clearly identified as a major spokesperson for the aerospace industry, because of its importance to his own constituency. Llywydd, there are some serious analyses that suggest that the aerospace industry in Wales is the most exposed of all to a tariff-infested Brexit. That's not surprising, is it, because the aerospace industry relies on components passing across borders every single day in order to succeed. So, Jack Sargeant is absolutely right to point to the dangers posed to industries and jobs in his parts of Wales if we don't manage to negotiate a sensible Brexit that puts jobs and our economy at the forefront of those negotiations.