Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:02 pm on 17 July 2018.
Can I thank Steffan Lewis for all those questions? He started off by making a very important point. The stakes here are absolutely real, and the impact on our nation if we do not get an agreement with the European Union will be felt in the lives of people right across this country.
I'm grateful as well for a chance to take up his point about planning, because for all the noise that there is sometimes around this I don't think there is any difference between our two parties on this matter. We both agree that you cannot plan away the catastrophic consequences of a 'no deal' Brexit, that it is not just something that you can devise a way of mitigating such an outcome. Does that mean that we do not do contingency planning of the sort that he described? Well, of course it doesn't mean that, and events over the last week mean that the urgency of that contingency planning has to increase.
It was discussed at the Brexit sub-committee of the Cabinet last week. It was rehearsed at the European advisory group that met on Thursday. I will meet officials on Thursday of this week. I will meet the Permanent Secretary on this matter this time next week. Because a catastrophic crash-out Brexit will have direct implications for responsibilities that we hold as a Welsh Government: whether we will be able to have access to nuclear medicine, how will we discharge our highways responsibilities if there is a queue from Holyhead to the English border. There are some practical issues that we have to think through, and that work has been going on for some time and it will now intensify over the summer, not because we think we can produce a plan that just means that, such a Brexit, its effects can be evaporated, but because, in that contingency sense, we have to make sure we're doing everything we can to protect Welsh interests.
I spoke about flexibility in the timetable because that is the point that the First Minister was making directly to EU leaders yesterday. We have long said that we don't think that we can conclude everything that needs to be done during the transition period by the end of December 2020. In that sense, an extension to the article 50 timetable seems to us to be inevitable. The point that the First Minister was making was one that I had been making when I was in Brussels last, that it is in nobody's interests to find ourselves in a straitjacket where, should everybody agree in the autumn of 2020 that an extension of time for the transition period would allow everybody to have outcomes that were preferable—why would we want to put ourselves in a position where that sensible course of action was denied to us all?
Steffan Lewis said that the Welsh Government had not had full sight of the White Paper before it was published. In any practical sense he was correct, because a version of it did not arrive here until 1.35 a.m.—a matter of a few hours' sleep before the White Paper actually was published.
We are proceeding with our plans in relation to the continuity Bill. We look carefully, of course, at everything that is happening around us. All our plans, inevitably, given the uncertainty of recent days, are always kept under review.
Steffan Lewis mentioned the shared prosperity fund. The paper that I have published today on future fiscal arrangements—the fifth in the series of papers that we have published since the original White Paper—does indeed make that point, Dirprwy Lywydd. We will not—we will not—sign up to a shared prosperity fund where what the UK Government really means is a chance for other parts of the United Kingdom to share in the money that has come to Wales because of the needs that we have here. We will not be removed from that position; I can give him that assurance.
Finally, the OBR has long been on record as demonstrating that Brexit will have a deleterious effect on the UK economy and on the tax revenues available to the Chancellor. Far from there being a Brexit dividend, there is a Brexit hole for the Chancellor to fill, and that hole is getting bigger, not smaller, as the chaos at London unfolds.