Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:44 pm on 3 October 2018.
Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. Plaid Cymru put forward this motion today on a people's vote because it's our considered and heartfelt belief that it's our solemn duty to do everything in our power to avoid a self-inflicted calamity to our country. Democracy is indeed a powerful thing; it can form and topple Governments, it can create new democracies and nation states, but at its essence, of course, it provides regular opportunities for the people themselves to change their minds.
On 23 June 2016, people from all four nations of the UK took part in one of the single biggest exercises of democracy the UK has ever seen. Promises were made by both sides of the referendum campaign, 'leave' and 'remain', and, quite often, by individuals and politicians who were not in a position to deliver them. Let's look at some of the promises that were made, some of the facts, and the options in terms of what we should do now. 'Let's give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week' was the most widely recognised promise of all, of course: rowed back on the day after the vote. Of course, the reality is that Brexit is actually costing the UK economy £500 million a week now, according to the latest projections from the Centre for European Reform. That's £26 billion a year, which, as it happens, is the difference between continuing and ending austerity—ironic, since austerity was one of the key driving factors behind the vote.
Members may have heard my warning this morning that we're heading towards an economic iceberg and need to change course. There are some who are advocating an alternative strategy, which is best described as, 'Let the iceberg move'. They dismiss all the warnings and insist that we're about to enter calm waters and that the EU will eventually buckle to our demands.
We were promised shiny new trade deals with EU and non-EU countries, the former being the 'easiest trade deal ever negotiated', it was claimed. Well, now, while they're right that leaving the single market and customs union would allow the UK to begin the work of negotiating new trade deals with other countries, there are deep and troubling questions regarding the content and timescale of such deals. The average time for negotiating a free trade agreement, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is 18 months, with a further three and a half years to get to the implementation stage. These figures are the average for bilateral trade deals between two partners. If Brexit happens, the UK will need to agree a trade deal with the EU and separate ones with its trading partners, of which there are over 50. No country on the planet has been in a position where it's had to negotiate over 50 free trade agreements at the same time under these circumstances. The current Government has spent two years negotiating a deal with the EU and has failed to make any process. The idea that negotiating 50 such deals at the same time will be a walk in the park is complete fantasy.
There has already been a massive opportunity cost since the referendum—Government time all taken up by one issue and thousands upon thousands of civil servants working solely on plans driven solely, it seems, by dogma and ideology, with one result: the undermining of the Welsh and UK economy.
Even though the macro outlook is alarming, things get even worse when you drill down and look at some of the detail about what leaving the EU customs union and single market means in practice. This would mean leaving, for example, Euratom, which is the legal contract by which the UK is able to import radioactive substances widely used in the field of medicine for treatment of cancer. Leaving the EU means leaving Euratom unless the UK applies for associate membership, which it doesn't intend to do. Are we really saying that our radioactive independence—whatever that means—is more important than the welfare of cancer patients?
Of great concern as well is what the proposed FTAs would entail and their wider implications. Eurosceptic Tories recently released a report calling for a trade deal between the UK and the US to allow American companies to compete for health contracts in the NHS: a far cry from boosting the health budget using the Brexit dividend that was promised.
Among the other backwards measures advocated by these right-wing zealots is holding a bonfire of consumer and environmental regulations: hormone-treated beef, chlorine-washed chicken—the well-being of people and animals sacrificed on the altar of an imperial nightmare. It's a sad—