4. What assessment has the First Minister made of the Future Generations Commissioner's report, 'Transport Fit for Future Generations'? OAQ52748

The Future Generations Commissioner for Wales’s sentiment on the benefits of investing in public transport, as well as walking and cycling infrastructure, is of course echoed by the Government, and the Cabinet Secretary responded to the commissioner on 28 September.

Thank you, First Minister. You'll be aware, I hope, that what the future generations commissioner's report has highlighted is that an M4 relief road would actually increase the numbers using the M4 by 42,000 vehicles a day, increasing the emissions by 500,000 tonnes. Given the extent of the congestion and pollution problem that my constituents are suffering, I'm extremely concerned that this relief road would increase the number of people commuting into Cardiff and, indeed, Newport by car. I'm struck by the argument from the future generations commissioner that a much smaller sum of less than £600 million on public transport and active travel would actually resolve the congestion problem at a fraction of the price. I wondered if you would be able to give us your views on that argument. 

It's not clear how that would operate, and some of the things that I've seen would be the introduction of bus lanes on the motorway. Of course, there would need to be buses that would run on the lanes, and in some parts of it, a dual carriageway; you can't have a single-lane motorway, clearly. Preventing people getting onto the motorway was one suggestion that was made; moving freight onto the rails, which, of course, we want to support, but it's easier said than done, particularly goods traffic because there are very few goods yards now. 

I take on board, of course, very much what she says about congestion. It will get worse—there's no question about that. When the Severn tolls go, there will be an effect on the tunnels, and I think we are deceiving ourselves if we think that the situation will improve in the near future. So, there has to be a solution. From my perspective, the decision that I will be asked to take is, 'Should it be the black route or not?' and that is something, of course, I have an open mind on because I have not yet seen the planning inspector's substantial report on this matter.   

The commissioner also said

'the Black Route is particularly weak...on the criteria set out in the Well-being of Future Generations Act'.

I think this is a key moment. I'm quite neutral on what the decision should be; I think there are arguments on both sides. But it's clearly going to be a key moment for the application of this Act for long-term projects and policies, and I do hope the Government will have some sort of method of responding in detail if it has to establish that it may be, in terms of the criteria set out, a decision that is not altogether aligned with it. At least that would take the Act seriously, or is it your position that the commissioner is wrong in making the assessment that she has on this?  

It's a shame that the commissioner didn't give evidence to the inquiry because, of course, this evidence then could have been tested and she would have been able to explain the basis upon which that evidence was given. It was produced after the inquiry had finished, which is perhaps not the most helpful way of doing it, but we will, nevertheless, take into account, of course, what the commissioner has said, and all relevant factors regarding the decision. The decision itself is not in an easy decision, but it has to be taken one way or another. The assurance I give Members is that I will take into account all relevant factors before coming to a conclusion.