Part of 1. Questions to the Cabinet Secretary for Finance – in the Senedd at 1:56 pm on 10 October 2018.
Perhaps I can help the Cabinet Secretary by instructing my officials to do that, and sending him the results of their labours in due course.
But I would like to draw the Cabinet Secretary's attention to the statement on page 56 of the Welsh tax policy report, which summarises the effects of the numerous studies that are mentioned in the footnotes, which says that
'These have tended to show taxpayers with higher incomes have larger responses to income tax changes. The main explanation for this is that higher income earners tend to be more active tax planners and are potentially more mobile than those on lower incomes.'
So, we start from a position, I think, where the ground soil is fertile, and although I appreciate that the Basque Country may be different from the experience in Switzerland—you can't take one single survey as indicating, as a form of genius, behavioural effect across Europe, or in the United Kingdom, or in Wales—but, nevertheless, there is here I think advantage in looking at the possibilities, given the tax-varying powers that we've got are limited, but the room for manoeuvre that the Cabinet Secretary has in any budget is limited by the system of block grant from the Treasury et cetera. The amount of discretion that we've got depends, crucially, now upon whether the Welsh economy can grow faster than it has done in the last 20 or so years.
And I would like to draw his attention to something else. The Wales Centre for Public Policy published a report called 'The Welsh Tax Base: Risks and Opportunities after Fiscal Devolution', and there's a table in there that shows that if we attracted only 1,600 higher rate taxpayers to Wales by a 5p additional tax rate cut, that would produce a £16 million benefit for the Welsh Government. If we attracted 10,000, then that would add £230 million to the Welsh Government's budget. So, these surely are risks that are worth looking at, with a view to taking them if you're convinced that these are going to be reflected in reality.