Now, 1.5 degrees doesn't sound like much, but it translates to more frequent and more extreme weather events, such as storms, heatwaves and flooding—the kind of events that have a severe impact on human life. The difference between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees of global warming is the difference between an Arctic that is free of ice once per decade, or once per century. It's the difference between the complete collapse of the world's coral reefs or the loss or around 30 per cent of this life-sustaining ecosystem.

To avert this potential catastrophe, the world must embark on a determined effort to transition away from fossil fuels as a source of energy. We can mobilise for war, we can recapitalise global banks with a massive programme of quantitative easing and so we can recalibrate to mitigate man-made climate change, if we chose to. The simple takeaway from this science is that the faster we cut carbon emissions, the less severe the impacts of rising global temperatures. Thankfully, much of the means of cutting our emissions already exist. We can act now. This means that a key priority for Wales must be transitioning our energy system to renewable sources. By energy, I mean the electricity we use to light our offices and power our televisions, as well as the energy we use to power our vehicles and heat our homes.

We must begin, like Germany and Denmark, by targeting a decrease in our energy demand, by increasing efficiency and eliminating waste. We can then start to decarbonise electricity. The Welsh Government's target is to produce 70 per cent of our electricity from renewables by 2030. We currently produce just 42 cent of our electricity from renewables and we need to move faster. We only have 12 years left to meet our target.

The technologies and means to do this already exist, and, as stark as the science might be, there are huge opportunities for Wales. We can be a leader in the development and deployment of wave and tidal renewables. There are firms in north Wales and south Wales developing industry-leading solutions to the key problems of at-sea renewable deployment. We need to ensure that we capitalise on our potential in this sector, quite unlike the story of wind energy, where Wales was once a world leader but fell behind and lost out on the valuable manufacturing and intellectual property that emerged.

But the most immediate opportunities still lie onshore, in wind and solar and even biomass—tried and tested technologies that are easy to build and maintain and, therefore, relatively low cost. We are close to a point where onshore renewables can operate without a subsidy, ending concerns that green energy will artificially inflate household bills. The cost for new renewables is now significantly below that of nuclear, and competitive with new gas power stations. This is game changing.

One of the UK’s most significant and underutilised wind resources is in rural Wales, but there is only opportunity to build out a small number of projects due to a constrained grid. The lack of grid capacity restricts other opportunities too. At the moment, most of rural Wales will not be able to put in place significant electric vehicle charging, renewable heating or even build new employment because we can’t transport enough electricity, and we risk isolating the people of rural Wales, and part of my own constituency, from changing technology and new opportunities.

It’s reported that storage of more than 1 MW capacity can’t be installed in Wales until the latter half of the next decade. This capacity is needed to support high generation and use of renewables. And until we sort this, I don’t see how we’ll be able to meet our target of producing 70 per cent of electricity from renewables by 2030. And more to the point, if we can’t accelerate this timetable, it might be too late to prevent catastrophic global warming. The new National Infrastructure Commission for Wales should consider the grid as a priority as should the national development framework being developed by the Welsh Government. To unlock funding to build this grid, could the public sector, through pension funds and other investments, invest in the grid? Instead of maxing out our borrowing capacity on building a mega-road that will lock in further emissions increases and build through protected wetlands, which are after all a carbon sink, we should prioritise projects that help us meet our commitments to future generations, not blow them out of the water. And it could help us here and now. Enabling renewable energy generation will create a stable, long-term economic return for the people of Wales. 

So, we must withdraw funding from dirty energy. Welsh local government pension funds currently have over £1 billion invested in fossil fuels, money that could be put to far better use supporting a new green economy in Wales. New research by the Institute of Welsh Affairs suggests that we could create 3,500 jobs just in the Swansea bay city region, which includes the Llanelli constituency, by switching to a 100 per cent renewable electricity network, and most of this work would be long-term roles in operation and maintenance.

The IWA has been carrying out extensive research into what practical steps would be needed to turn Wales into a country that meets all its energy needs from renewable sources. That's the kind of bold response we need to see to the warning of the Paris agreement. It's all very well us passing symbolic legislation and being showcased at the UN; it's action that counts—action for the long term that produces tangible benefits in the short term too. 

The IWA research suggests that the economic benefits of refitting housing to a higher energy efficiency standard is around £1.6 billion over a 15-year period. Because the firms that would carry out this work are locally rooted in the foundational economy, these benefits are likely to be retained in and by our communities. We already have world leading expertise in sustainable building in our universities, in our housing associations and in our private sector, and we should use this to ensure that all new builds in Wales meet stringent standards for carbon emissions. So, I'm pleased that the Minister for housing has announced funding of £4 million for an innovative green housing project in Burry Port in my constituency.

Of course, this isn't just about electricity and heat; it's also about transport. We must decarbonise our transport system. The more immediate and effective solution is to break the dependency on private transport, moving people to public transport and active travel for short journeys. Getting more people walking and cycling have all sorts of wider benefits to the health and well-being of the nation too. It's the solution that makes sense at all sorts of levels.

As significant and important an innovation as electric vehicles are, they aren't the answer to this problem without a transformed electricity system. All that said, Welsh Government should set out an ambition to end the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles in the UK. The UK Government has announced a ban by 2040, with other European countries going much earlier. Let's set our aspiration higher and let's leverage the auto sector we have based in Wales to turn this into an opportunity. Welsh Government is working on a new Welsh transport strategy, and it must surely place at its heart the need to decarbonise the transport sector, not just in the words at the front but in the actions at the back. And there is a need to ensure that the energy we do use for transport comes from renewable sources, be that electricity, hydrogen or biofuels.

Wales can use this climate crisis as an opportunity to become a world leader, not just in words but in the deployment of renewable technologies and decarbonisation of the energy system. The timescale is pressing and we need to act, but there are opportunities to improve the lives of Welsh citizens as we do it. Diolch.