Office for National Statistics Forecasts

Part of 1. Questions to the Cabinet Secretary for Finance – in the Senedd at 1:34 pm on 14 November 2018.

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Photo of Mark Drakeford Mark Drakeford Labour 1:34, 14 November 2018

I thank the Member for that. She makes a very important point in linking working-age population projections with the impact on the Welsh tax base and, indeed, on the block grant adjustment that affects the amount of money we get annually from the Treasury. The important point here, Llywydd, is the one that I mentioned a moment ago—that these are straight line projections from the past into the future. And there are many factors that can affect the comparable working-age population changes in different parts of the United Kingdom. Indeed, at a sub-Welsh level, there are variations. In Merthyr Tydfil, for example, the sub-national projection shows a smaller decline in the population aged 16 to 64 than across Wales as a whole. The point that Dawn Bowden quoted from the chief economist's report is this: that if our working age population grew more slowly than other parts of the United Kingdom, that could easily translate into a smaller tax base and that would affect the funding we get from the UK Government. There are many things outside our own control that will have an impact on those figures in the future, as there are things highlighted in the Welsh Governance Centre report that show the things that we can do ourselves to make a difference in that area, and, by taking those actions, we can mitigate the problems that Dawn Bowden identified.