Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:56 pm on 14 November 2018.
I fully recognise the problems that the Welsh Government have in this regard. I think to say we don't know anything is going a bit further—[Interruption.] Hang on. I've taken one intervention. We don't know everything, but to say we don't know anything at all I think is wrong. We can estimate exactly—not exactly, but we can estimate how the system will potentially look, so certain work has to be done. I'm sure that the Cabinet Secretary is aware of that and that officials are getting on with it; they certainly seem to be dealing with some of the concerning issues when we took evidence.
Turning to chapter 3 and reform of the Barnett formula, well, of course, we've been talking about this for a very long time, but it's developed a new resonance now Brexit is on the horizon. Recommendation 2 recommends,
'that the Welsh Government should work with the UK Government and other devolved administrations to develop a sustainable long-term replacement for the Barnett formula that allocates funding across the UK based on needs.'
At the heart of this is the widely held view that the Barnett formula will be unsuitable for allocating future funding allocations.
So, yes, we've come a long way. We do have the fiscal framework and the Barnett floor, and we've had modifications to the Barnett formula that will help in the short to medium term, but the committee recognised that in the longer term, particularly post Brexit, a full review of the Barnett formula is necessary. The Institute for Fiscal Studies highlighted that the formula does not take account of differences in funding needs or population growth and, if used to determine funding, it could be seriously disadvantageous to Wales.
There were different options put forward that were quite mind-boggling to the committee. An alternative would be the index per capita formula that's used in Scotland or, alternatively, the UK and Welsh Governments may wish to allocate funding differently again using hypothecation and indexing changes over time.
I appreciate I'm out of time, deputy Chair, but it's been a pleasure to be part of this debate, and also to be part of the committee inquiry into this. It's a very important area, and I look forward to listening to what other Members have to say.