Diolch, Llywydd. It's symptomatic of the handling of the UK Government’s Brexit negotiations that I am providing an update to Assembly Members amidst the worst political crisis I have seen. As I will explain, it is a crisis that could have been avoided. It is a crisis rooted in a reluctance to be honest about the difficult trade-offs needed in the negotiations, and an unwillingness to build a broad consensus, including with the devolved administrations, about the approach to the unprecedented challenges of leaving the European Union. Now, of course, we have the hard-line Brexiteers in the Conservative Party who are actively working to bring about a 'no deal' outcome, seeking to deepen the political crisis still further with a leadership election.

Today, Llywydd, I want to set out the Welsh Government’s position on the agreement and outline the next steps that need to be taken, and taken urgently by the UK Government. It's important, of course, to make the distinction between the withdrawal agreement and the future economic relationship that will need to be set out in the political declaration. Many aspects of the withdrawal agreement are desperately needed. Securing the transition period is absolutely essential to avoid the cliff edge in just four months' time. The protection of citizens' rights will secure the status of the EU citizens who have made their lives here, contributing to our economy and our public services, and also those of UK nationals who have chosen to live and work or retire elsewhere in Europe. It's shameful that the UK Government has used the EU and UK citizens as a tactical pawn in what is a party political chess game.

We fully recognise the importance of securing the Good Friday agreement in Northern Ireland to make sure that Brexit does not put at risk the peace and prosperity that agreement has brought to the island of Ireland. As I have said ad nauseum in this Chamber on a number of occasions, the border issues on the island of Ireland are at the very heart of Brexit and they demonstrate the failings of the latest agreement and those of the Prime Minister. We understand why, given the dangerous nonchalance of some in the Conservative Party about the Good Friday agreement, the EU-27 needs a robust guarantee that there will be no return to a hard border. Elements of the backstop are at best problematic, but they would never need to be implemented if the UK Government embraced a solution that recognises the importance of the closest possible relationship between the UK as a whole and the EU, short of membership. If the UK Government had adopted the position we set out jointly with Plaid Cymru almost two years ago for a future economic relationship that included full and unfettered access to the single market and a customs union, there would be no need to ever invoke any backstop arrangements. But what we have instead from the UK Government is a totally inadequate political declaration.

The real failure of the current deal is the worrying lack of progress in and lack of clarity of the political declaration. What has the UK Government been doing for the last two years? We have no idea what the UK’s future relationship with our largest and most influential trading partner will look like. The reason for this is that the Prime Minister is continuing with her failed strategy of looking inwards, focusing on managing the internal turmoil of the Conservative Party and not focusing on the needs of the UK as a whole and on the interests of Wales and the other nations. The political crisis is all of the UK Government’s own making. It needn’t have been this way.

The Prime Minister has spent the last two years, unfortunately, encouraging the expectations of militant, ideologically driven hard Brexiteers in her own party, and small wonder they feel let down by what she has tabled. She now, belatedly, needs to face down those in her party who will never support a relationship with the EU-27. She needs to listen to the views of the business community, the trade unions and the devolved Governments, and she could then begin to negotiate the right deal with the EU-27.

In Brussels, the EU-27 have been clear that if the UK Government moves away from its misjudged red lines and embraces a closer economic relationship—one that we set out in ‘Securing Wales’ Future’—then a cleaner, more coherent and favourable deal can be achieved. And while we see the UK Government’s position moving ever closer to ours, by only doing so in the most reluctant way—kicking and screaming—the Prime Minister has lost all the negotiating advantage she could have achieved. 

Rather than platitudes under subject headings, with next to nothing on key issues like future migration and participation in programmes such as Horizon or Erasmus+, the political declaration needs to be based on a firm, mutual commitment from the UK and the EU-27 to a future relationship grounded in long-term participation in a customs union and the single market across all sectors. This is on offer. Michel Barnier has repeatedly talked about his preferred model being Norway plus, but progressing this has not been possible with a UK Government intent on clinging on to their red lines.

So what needs to change, before we could even consider supporting this deal? Well, perhaps relatively little in the withdrawal agreement itself, apart from ensuring that the backstop is never needed. And if our proposal of a long-term customs union is accepted, any theoretical case for the backstop largely evaporates. But we do need a fundamental rewriting of the political declaration and a fundamental change of mindset to be honest about the fact that the UK Government has made a clear choice to prioritise our economic stability over the soundbite of taking back control of our laws, borders and money.

No-one voted in the referendum, surely, for the economic and social catastrophe of a 'no deal' departure. We need to see a political declaration that sets out the intent of both sides to negotiate a long-term relationship that clearly reflects the choices of ‘Securing Wales’ Future’, something that is no longer unrealistic given the position the UK Government has already moved to. That approach would render the backstop unnecessary and would provide certainty for our people and our businesses that there won’t be another cliff edge in December 2020. And, in practical terms, it would almost certainly command a large majority in the House of Commons.

Time is very short until the European Council, but the political declaration is clearly a work in progress. Following my demand for an urgent meeting, at yesterday’s meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee on EU negotiations, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance set out again our view on the right future relationship with the EU-27.

Llywydd, the final position of the Welsh Government will be determined in the light of whether or not the UK Government at this late stage sees sense.