I do believe the PM's deal is a good one, and it reflects the situation produced by the referendum result, which was 52 per cent in favour of leave, 48 per cent for remain. It's a nuanced position we now find ourselves in: an ongoing relationship with Europe, but also removal from its political structures. I think that is a fair reflection of where we are as a people at the moment.

Above all things, the danger of a disorderly Brexit is removed. This is an important achievement, and it's to the credit of the UK Government and the EU that it's been produced. The business sector has welcomed the agreement and the political declaration. Dow Silicones UK wrote to me this week—I think they wrote to all Members. Many of us would have visited their plant in Barry; it employs 553 people. I quote from their letter:

‘The Government's publication of the long-term economic analysis of leaving the European Union rightly identifies the chemical sector as one of those most at risk of no deal.’

It goes on,

‘We recognise that the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration are not perfect. However, if secured they do ensure some much needed certainty through the transition period, enabling our business to plan investment decisions with a greater degree of confidence than has been the case for the past two and a half years. During that transition our industry will also work with the Government to help achieve the most appropriate future relationship with the EU.’

I think it's about time we had someone reading from the business sector what they think, and we should reflect very carefully on that.

If Mrs May's deal is rejected then two possibilities obviously come to the fore: a 'no deal' Brexit, greatly feared by business, as I've just referred to, or a second referendum that might cause deep damage to our democratic culture. It seems to me that a second referendum is not a reasonable course of action unless there is an overwhelming and visible demand for it, and whatever the likes of Adam Price think, there just isn't at the moment. Secondly, an expectation exists for a decisive outcome, and that means 60 plus per cent one way or the other, and that certainly doesn't exist at the moment. There seems to be hardly any movement from where we were two years ago.

Otherwise, I believe the most democratic thing for remainers like me is to accept Brexit, allow it an opportunity to reach a final agreement, and then start the work to rejoin the EU, because I do believe that is definitely in our long-term interests. It is essential to think strategically and for the long term. The project I've outlined, of remove and then return, will probably take a generation, just as our current plight has taken a generation to develop. We have to win over the leavers. That's the most essential thing for those that want us to have a future in the EU to achieve, and we're not going to do that by rubbing their noses in it and saying they got it wrong last time and we'd better have another vote until they realise what is good for them. We have to inspire them with a new vision for the EU, and the EU needs to reform itself as well. Let's not forget the importance of that type of democratic renewal. Are we all blind to the protests that are occurring in all sorts of European states at the moment? Come on. Let us read the signs of our times, because they are shouting very loud at us, and in the UK we also need to refresh our democratic culture.

I think probably this has been the most shocking part of the whole Brexit experience, to suddenly realise what a lot of our citizens think of us all in all the established political parties. We clearly need to be fairer to citizens for all sorts of reasons. The social contract developed after the second world war is weaker and, in parts, has broken down. We need to come up with a new version of that to win over all our citizens and to make them feel that they have a genuine place in our national life and prosperity.

We need to be fairer to the home nations of the union. This will be one of the biggest tests of Brexit—how we have inter-governmental relations within the UK and deal with those pressures. The situation in Scotland, where they voted so firmly to remain, ought to be a dire warning to all unionists who want to see the United Kingdom hold together. That is something that we as Conservatives need to remember—we are also a unionist party—and the various options that face us should be measured by how they affect the whole union as well as how they may affect various versions of purity on a particular policy.

We need a closer connection between citizens and politicians—that's clearly important throughout the western democratic world, but it's really pressing on us now. If we overturn Brexit by a small majority, we will be more deeply divided than we are today. Why? Well, unlike remainers today, leavers would lose all hope and confidence that the UK's political system can ever deliver their wishes on this most foundational issue. As least us remainers have a chance to return to this matter and work for an attempt to re-join the EU in the future.

Even that attempt to overturn the referendum result will shake the confidence many have in our democratic culture. I do warn Labour Members that you risk an axial shift away from you in the Valleys if you go back to them—and I found Lynne's comments very powerful. But just look at the Liberal Party between 1918 and 1923 to see what can happen and how quickly it can happen. In many western democracies those who are most deprived vote for centre-right parties. They always have in great numbers in the Irish Republic. Look what's happened in Ohio, Pennsylvania, the states of the south. How many Democrats are elected for West Virginia at the moment? This is the sort of thing that you could be facing.

And I say to fellow Conservatives who are not going to support Mrs May's deal that we would risk losing support on the right if we force through another referendum. And we would probably see some form of strident English nationalism develop that would eat away at much of our core vote as well.