Thank you, Dirprwy Lywydd.

Members will know, of course, that I was appointed Chair of the Finance Committee earlier this year, so this has been a new experience for me, and scrutiny of the draft budget has been a fascinating introduction, one could say, to the work of the Finance Committee. 

Of course, the way that the draft budget is scrutinised was changed last year, and this is the second time that the Finance Committee has undertaken a more high-level, strategic scrutiny, looking at overarching spending and revenue-raising plans. As part of our scrutiny, we considered the timing of the draft budget, as we've already heard in the opening remarks of the Cabinet Secretary. The committee recognises that publishing the Welsh draft budget before the UK budget can cause difficulties. Once the UK budget is published, this can result in allocation changes between the draft and the final budgets, and more in-year funding changes. However, we agreed that the current practice of publishing the Welsh draft budget prior to the UK autumn statement is preferable to delaying scrutiny. I'm pleased that the Cabinet Secretary accepts our recommendation but, of course, we will continue to review the arrangements as we go forward.

Our report makes a series of recommendations, and I'll briefly cover some of the more prominent ones in my contribution to this debate this afternoon. This is the first draft budget after the introduction of the Welsh rate of income tax, which is an exciting and historic moment in devolution. We heard from Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs about the work being done to ensure they are ready for 1 April and, in the main, it seems that work is on target and is progressing well.  Everyone here today should by now have received a letter informing them of their Welsh taxpayer status, but we do recognise at the same time that Wales has a dynamic border, with around 100,000 people migrating back and forth each year. So, effectively monitoring Welsh taxpayers is going to be crucial, and we recommend that the Welsh Government clearly monitors progress in that process of identification of Welsh taxpayers as we make progress. The Cabinet Secretary assured the committee that this work was being paid for, and as such he was clear about his expectations of the service expected of HMRC.

The subject of forecasting future tax revenues was also an area of concern for the committee. In Scotland, we heard that there was an overestimation by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the OBR, and the Scottish Fiscal Commission of £700 million and £500 million respectively. We asked the OBR whether this could happen in Wales, and it was said that more will be learnt when the first survey of personal income is available, whilst the Cabinet Secretary told us the reasons for the overestimation in Scotland are still unknown.