Part of 1. Questions to the Cabinet Secretary for Finance – in the Senedd at 1:59 pm on 5 December 2018.
Llywydd, the gravity analysis is, as the Member said, summed up generally as 'trade halves as distance doubles', and that does tell you a relatively commonsensical thing: that you are more likely to have intense economic relationships with those who are closest to you, and the further away your market is from your own, the less likely it is that you will have the same intensity of trade. The real difficulty for the Member is that all the things that he points to in trying to discredit gravity analysis apply whether we are in the European Union or not. And, leaving the European Union is not a material fact in the analysis that he just attempted to set out.