Not being a member of the committee, I was not involved in the deliberations leading to this report, but I would like to thank the Finance Committee for their carefully-thought-out report on the cost of caring for an ageing population. Advances in health and social care enable all of us to live longer and healthier lives. Coupled with an increase in population, it is not surprising that the issue of paying for it is coming to the fore and that is why the committee's report, together with the independent report by Professor Gerald Holtham, which we debated yesterday, are entirely timely.

If we look at the current spending, we see that it has, in fact, decreased by 14 per cent between 2009-2010 and 2016-17 as services focus on supporting people with higher levels of need. This means that there are more people with perhaps less acute care needs who are receiving care in their own homes. Of course, it may be that a spouse or partner is providing that care. So, when we look at funding social care, we must give very careful consideration to carers themselves, particularly family members who are providing care for their loved one. In fact, there are around 370,000 informal carers in Wales. We hear many stories of these carers missing their own medical appointments or social activities because of their caring responsibilities. Young carers in particular need our support, and I know that Members from all sides of the Chamber would wish to pay tribute to the work that all carers do on a daily basis. I am pleased, therefore, that the Government has accepted the committee's recommendation that they review whether the assessment that carers are entitled to under the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 is being carried out, and whether those needs are being assessed correctly. 

Turning to the demands on the social care system, the ratio of over-70s to those aged 20 to 69 is going to rise by the early 2040s from 23 per cent to 37 per cent. So, that's a 50 per cent increase within the population—and perhaps I ought to confess a degree of guilt for that statistic myself. The demand for spending on social care is projected to rise by over 85 per cent by 2035, at 2016-17 prices, so that's a 20 per cent increase in spending per head and an increase in numbers requiring care of over 55 per cent. These figures highlight clearly the need to face up to the long-term realities of funding social care. For too long we haven't really grappled with this issue enough. As the committee have stated, the evidence shows that funding pressures along with an increase in population are resulting in a funding shortfall. This is further complicated by the complex arrangements associated with paying for care, which often lead to unfairness.

Of course, there has been much debate about the prospect of a social care levy, and the committee have given this very careful consideration. I'm pleased to see that one of the recommendations is that the Welsh Government would need to be able to justify how any funds raised will be used and be able to demonstrate that it will make a difference. This should include explaining what level of care the public could expect in return for their contributions, since it is unlikely that they would support proposals to pay more if the level of care is the same as at present. Before we consider any new taxes, for that is in effect what the levy would be, the public need to be sure that they are getting something that is quid pro quo, and certainly we on these benches would not be able to support a new levy unless and until it is fully justifiable to the taxpayer.

A point my colleague Neil Hamilton made during the committee's deliberations is that we also need to radically improve productivity and efficiency in the health sector. We must ensure that people are able to see their GP when they need to. This would reduce A&E attendances and hospital admissions. Getting people discharged from hospital more quickly and back into their homes, with suitable adaptations and care packages, will also help to reduce the long-term burden on the social care sector. 

The Minister previously announced a falls response project, in conjunction with St John Ambulance, to deal with some of the pressures on the NHS over the winter. We should look at all of these types of projects to evaluate their benefits on social care. To be fair to them, the Welsh Government have already undertaken some excellent work in this area, but to meet the challenges of the future, we must do more. 

Finally, we need to deal with population growth, and that means having a migration policy that suits our national economic interests. We must therefore have proper border controls so that we can truly assess those who have a desperate and proper need for asylum, but with stricter controls on those who come here for economic reasons, and who will, inevitably, put yet more pressure on our already overburdened health and social care system.