6. Debate: The Final Budget 2019-20

– in the Senedd at 4:30 pm on 15 January 2019.

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Photo of Ann Jones Ann Jones Labour 4:30, 15 January 2019

We now move on to item 6, which is a debate on the final budget, and I call on the Minister for Finance and Trefnydd to move the motion—Rebecca Evans.

(Translated)

Motion NDM6902 Rebecca Evans

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales, in accordance with Standing Order 20.25, approves the Annual Budget for the financial year 2019-20 laid in the Table Office by the Cabinet Secretary for Finance on 18 December 2018.

(Translated)

Motion moved.

Photo of Rebecca Evans Rebecca Evans Labour 4:30, 15 January 2019

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. It is a privilege to lead the debate on the final budget today, and I pay tribute to and thank my predecessor, Mark Drakeford, for his work on the budget over the last year.

I also thank the Finance Committee for its work in scrutinising the budget and I have responded formally and positively to the recommendations put forward by the committee. I look forward to working with the Finance Committee and with the future generations commissioner, as we develop the budget for 2020-21 and move into a comprehensive spending review.

The context of this budget will be familiar. The budget was crafted in the long shadow cast by nine years of austerity; a political choice by a Conservative UK Government that has caused damage and harm to the fabric of our public services. Wales has £850 million less to spend, in real terms, on public services in 2019-20 than in 2010-11, as a result of UK Government cuts. If spending on public services had kept pace with gross domestic product growth since 2010-11, we would have £4 billion more in 2019-20—that's 20 per cent up on our current budget.

When the draft budget was published in October, the Prime Minister was promising that austerity was over and that a Brexit deal was in reach. Yet, only today, Parliament holds its meaningful vote and the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a deal is very real. In the UK autumn budget, there was little evidence that austerity was over. Of the additional funding that we received, the majority of the already announced consequential funding was for the NHS. Our capital budget in Wales will increase by just £2.6 million in 2019-20. As a result of austerity, funding per person for day-to-day devolved public services in 2019-20 will be 7 per cent lower in real terms than it was in 2010-11.

In spite of these challenges, we continue to deliver in difficult times. We continue to prioritise investment in the Welsh NHS, education and social care. We are investing in our schools and colleges, creating the health service of the future, building an economy with real social purpose. 

When we published the draft budget, we recognised it represented a challenging settlement for local government. We worked hard and quickly to announce in November an additional package of funding for local authorities worth £141.5 million over three years, including extra funding for education, children's social services and a £100 million increase in capital funding. And we will debate the final local government settlement later today.

The final budget delivers on our commitments. It includes a further £26 million to increase support for high street retailers and other businesses to help them pay their rates bills. Local authorities will receive an extra £7 million to meet our flagship commitment to raise the capital limit to £50,000 two years early. From April, people will be able to keep more of their hard-earned savings before they have to pay for residential care.

I'm also pleased to confirm an extra £6.8 million to support our commitment to create 100,000 all-age apprenticeships over the course of this Assembly. The final budget contains some specific allocations to helping tackle child poverty, above and beyond what was announced in the draft budget. A further £1.6 million will be available in 2019-20 for the pupil development grant access scheme to ensure that parents can meet the everyday costs associated with sending their children to school and wider activities. And, an extra £0.4 million will be used to extend the Fun and Food programme, providing children with a meal and learning opportunities during the school summer holidays.

There are some smaller allocations in this final budget that I would like to put on record this afternoon: an extra £0.5 million to enhance support for music activities for young people; an extra £0.9 million to further reduce food waste, building on the £15 million announced in the draft budget; and an extra £0.8 million revenue and £3 million capital for Natural Resources Wales.

This budget also marks the second year of the two-year budget agreement with Plaid Cymru. I thank Plaid's finance spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth, for the early engagement that we've had about finance matters. In line with our agreement, we have provided additional capital funding to refurbish the Urdd camps at Llangrannog and Glan-llyn. We're also providing £10 million in 2019-20 to take forward the results of the feasibility studies into a national museum and art gallery. 

We continue to develop plans to use financial transaction capital funding, including measures to stimulate our housing and property market. We will provide financial transaction funding this financial year to set up a £40 million Wales self-build fund. The scheme will start in earnest in 2019-20. Further details on our plans will be provided in the second supplementary budget.

This is a budget developed against the uncertainty of Brexit. The chaotic shambles around the Prime Minister's deal has moved us towards the possibility of no deal and the risk of significant disruption, risking jobs and livelihoods. If we leave the European Union on 29 March without a deal, the UK Government must provide us with the resources we will need to respond to this catastrophic scenario.

We have been working hard to prepare for Brexit and to ensure Wales's public services, institutions, businesses and partners are ready for all outcomes. To do this, we're investing up to £50 million in a dedicated EU transition fund. Today, I can announce the next pipeline of projects from this fund to provide support to our key sectors, partners and communities. Projects include funding for the Association of Directors of Social Services Cymru to support our social care sector from the impact of Brexit. We will also provide funding for police partnership resilience, to enable Wales's police services to support Brexit preparations. We will expand preparations for successor arrangements to EU structural funds, building on work to support implementation of a post-EU regional investment model for Wales. We're also in discussions with the WLGA about Brexit support for local government, with further details to follow.

We do not have a budget beyond 2021, and face a comprehensive spending review this year. The Chancellor has also been clear that if the economic or fiscal outlook changes materially as a result of Brexit, the spring statement could be updated to a full fiscal event. I am realistic that we may have to amend our budget plans, and if this is the case I will of course keep Members fully updated. This year marks another milestone in our devolution journey. For the first time, this budget includes revenues raised from Welsh rates of income tax. From April, more than £2 billion of the Welsh budget will come from taxes raised in Wales, strengthening our accountability to the people of Wales. Today, the National Assembly has made a decision about the Welsh rates of income tax. In line with our manifesto commitment, we have agreed not to increase the rates of income tax this year. 

Deputy Presiding Officer, this budget seeks to provide and protect the vital public services people in Wales rely on. It does this by carefully managing our resources and pursuing the progressive policies and priorities that define this Welsh Government. I commend the final budget to the National Assembly.

Photo of Ann Jones Ann Jones Labour 4:38, 15 January 2019

Thank you. Can I call on the Chair of finance, Llyr Gruffydd?

Photo of Llyr Gruffydd Llyr Gruffydd Plaid Cymru

(Translated)

Thank you very much, Deputy Presiding Officer. I’m very pleased to speak in this debate today on the final budget, which has changed, of course, from the draft budget that we scrutinised as a committee in the autumn. The final budget does show the consequentials that came from the UK autumn budget, of course, in 2018. It also shows a reduction of £40 million in income tax forecasts, a £2 million reduction in land transactions tax, and a £3 million upward revision in landfill tax revenues.

We welcomed the previous Cabinet Secretary’s early indication during our draft budget scrutiny when he said that local government would be at the front of the queue if additional consequentials came following the UK Government's budget. I'm pleased to see that allocations included within this final budget have met this commitment.

Of course, the powers of this place in this context are still developing and evolving, and the committee will also continue to develop our approach to scrutiny on taxation powers in future. And we will also review what options are available in terms of budget processes available to the Assembly in future years.

There are a number of allocations made in this final budget that won't have been subject to scrutiny, of course, and the Finance Committee has raised this issue with the previous Cabinet Secretary. When financial decisions are made in year, there must be sufficient financial information available. I would urge the new Minister for finance to consider this in the future, and I would also urge my fellow committee members here today to ensure that they consider any changes in allocations in upcoming scrutiny sessions, because financial scrutiny doesn't only need to take place during the formal autumn budget scrutiny.

Finally, I'm also pleased to have received the response of the Government to the committee report on the draft budget. But, unfortunately, this was only received this morning, and, as a result, I haven't had an opportunity to consider the content. I also understand that the policy committees have only received their responses this morning, and whilst I fully appreciate how much work it is for the Government to move from a draft budget to a final budget, it isn't acceptable that these responses have been received so late in the day.

As a committee, we will be reflecting on the budget scrutiny in our meeting next week, and I'll also hope to discuss with the new Minister for finance how we can avoid a situation of this kind in future.

Photo of Nick Ramsay Nick Ramsay Conservative 4:41, 15 January 2019

Can I thank the Minister for her contribution to today's debate—and, indeed, the briefing that you provided me with earlier in the footsteps of your predecessor? I appreciate you've come in almost towards the end of this budget-setting process, so I don't expect you to be an expert on everything. It was good to see, however, that the blame game with the UK Government continues apace as it did before. No Welsh Government debate seems to be complete without blame towards the UK Government and what's happening in England, but there we are.

It won't surprise you to hear that the Welsh Conservatives will not be supporting this budget today. On the bright side, this year, the Welsh Government will be in control of the biggest budget since devolution, at over £16 billion by 2020. Even before adjustments for tax devolution, the Welsh Government has more scope to spend money where it matters. For the first time, the Welsh Government will be able to raise £2.1 billion in taxes, as we've heard from the Minister. The abolition of the Severn bridge tolls will benefit the south Wales economy by over £100 million a year. Those aren't my figures; that's the Welsh Government's own estimates. The fiscal framework agreement between the UK and the Welsh Governments is delivering for Wales. Within the 2018 budget, more than £550 million of extra money has been pledged to the Welsh Government, as well as over £100 million for a north Wales growth deal, which will generate investment, jobs and prosperity in the region. And, of course, we've got continued support for a mid Wales growth deal.

Now, whilst we accept that the Welsh Government ship has been sailing through challenging times, Government is about priorities and it is now the role of the Welsh Government to ensure that consequentials from the UK Government's budget do find their way to the areas that matter, and, most importantly, to the front line. The Minister mentioned the NHS, the Welsh people's priority, and our priority too—at least, it should be here. The Welsh Government are finally heeding Welsh Conservative advice from a number of years ago that we should be increasing funding to our health service. We know that between 2011 and 2016 the health budget was not protected in real terms and, as a result, we are playing catch-up. But we are where we are. The Welsh Government will receive an additional £550 million in their budget. As I say, there will be an NHS funding uplift along with increased pay for NHS staff and a pay award for staffing there.

The final budget does not fully address the significant concerns outlined by committees. We've heard the comments from the Chair of the Finance Committee. I do welcome the additional funding for Natural Resources Wales. We know the difficulties that that organisation has been through over recent years, having its accounts qualified for yet another year running. Can we have an assurance that this money comes with conditions, and that the Public Accounts Committee's recommendations will be fully implemented so we can avoid some of the havoc that we've seen over recent years in that organisation?

The Minister has outlined some of the changes between the draft and the final budgets, and I'm pleased that the Welsh Government has decided to spend some extra £13 million on the local government settlement—you mentioned that would be coming up later—which provides local authorities with some more money. Still, in many cases, these are cash-flat settlements. We're not looking at real-terms protection. But, nonetheless, it is finance that will be welcomed by local government across Wales.

You've mentioned support for businesses. There are UK Government consequentials available for high street rates relief. I know we've had discussions in this Chamber about the form that that relief might take. We have had numerous warnings and reports over recent years on the state of our high streets and the problems that they face, so we look for assurances that the Welsh Government will provide the sort of fair rate relief that businesses have been crying out for.

If I can just mention social care, whilst there has been additional funding for social care, which is to be welcomed, this falls far short of what we all believe is needed to keep pace with demand over future years. Projections suggest that there will need to be a near doubling of spend on local authority social services for older people between 2015 and 2030. The WLGA estimates that there will be £344 million-worth of service pressures in social care by 2021-22, the subject of a recent Finance Committee report and debate in this Chamber.

Briefly, on housing, I welcome the new self-build proposals that you mentioned to me earlier, Minister; that's really innovative and to be welcomed. I think we all agree that in the light of recent debates on housing, we certainly need to increase the housing stock available in Wales and the level of appropriate housing as well. So, we welcome innovative proposals. Whatever happens, we do need to see an increase in the housing stock, and most importantly in housing stock of the affordable housing variety.

I haven't mentioned the future generations legislation—I know I haven't got time to—and you mentioned the commissioner. In the past, we've called for budgets that tie in with the future generations legislation and put Wales on a sustainable footing for the future. We do need to see budgets do more of that over the future, so I urge you and the Welsh Government to make sure that budgets here are sustainable both now and into the future. 

Photo of Rhun ap Iorwerth Rhun ap Iorwerth Plaid Cymru 4:46, 15 January 2019

(Translated)

Yes, the final budget, and quite a few changes since the draft budget. Unfortunately, not sufficient changes from the draft budget, particularly when it comes to funding for local government. As I welcome the new finance Minister to her post, we could point out that it's possible to do things differently when there’s a change of personnel in a post, but it's possibly rather difficult to do that when your predecessor is by now the boss. But certainly, there are weaknesses that will cost us dearly, particularly in the field of ​​local government.

I appreciate the comments of the finance Minister welcoming the discussions that we have had on this budget before today, and I will once again pay tribute to Steffan at this point, because he, as my predecessor as finance spokesperson, laid the foundations for the agreement between ourselves as Plaid Cymru, and the agreement demonstrates its success by what has been presented to us today.

We’ve worked closely with the Government over the past two years, and I certainly speak on behalf of us all on these benches when I tell the Chamber that we are extremely proud of what we have achieved through our agreement that was agreed between Steffan and the current First Minister, the former Finance Secretary, which is £0.5 billion of investments that have allowed us to take forward our manifesto from the back benches. 

They include a great number of things that we're extremely proud of: £40 million for mental health services, further funding for the development of medical training that has led to the establishment of medical education for north Wales, support for businesses during Brexit and post Brexit, the football museum and the contemporary art museum being developed further, and funding for Glan-llyn and Llangrannog—things that will have a great impact on the lives of young people in Wales. And if we can do that in opposition, imagine what we could do in Government.

We will be abstaining on today's budget in order to reflect the agreement that we have made, but the context has changed fundamentally since the agreement. The major change, of course, is that this Government has a working majority by now, and so it is a Government budget without the ability to be defeated by the opposition parties, and we certainly regret very much a number of elements contained within it. The Government still fails to realise the depth of the difficulties of local government. Yes, some additional funding has been given to them, £50 million more since the first budget, but this doesn't come anywhere near what is required. The core grant for local government has been reduced by 22 per cent since 2010, and although, according to the headlines, no local authority is seeing a great decrease in their budget—they say it's 0.53 per cent—that is a barefaced lie, because the cuts are swingeing.

Yes, we do agree with you that we need to point the finger at the cruel Conservative Government in Westminster, and what has been done by their inequitable and unjust policy of austerity. But it was the political choice of the Labour Welsh Government not to make the investment in local government when you had the opportunity to do so in the budget this time. You cannot avoid the blame for not taking that alternative decision that failed to give that support to our councils.

Health has seen an increase of £0.5 billion since the first supplementary budget, but, of course, the health service can't work in a vacuum. We need a well-funded local government that can give the right support to social services in order to ensure that the health service is able to operate in a sustainable fashion, and that is not the situation that we have today.

We have raised these issues time after time. This Government knows that people within its own party feel the same as us. Anthony Hunt, the leader of the WLGA, and the leader of Torfaen, has also expressed concern that the Government has taken the wrong decisions with this budget. And later on today we will vote against the local government settlement, because we don't believe that the right decisions, the decisions that had potential to transform local government, or to take the pressure off them at least, have been made this time. But we will be abstaining on the budget, but this will be the last time. 

Photo of Mike Hedges Mike Hedges Labour 4:52, 15 January 2019

As austerity continues, the amount of money needed to run public services to the level the public want and need is not being provided. I'm sure the Minister will agree with me that austerity is not an economic policy but a political direction of travel. The Conservatives at Westminster want to reduce public expenditure and roll back the state provision of services.

As we pass the tenth year of at best sluggish economic growth, we need a change of direction and we need economic growth. The amount of money available to run the public services in Wales is inadequate. Unfortunately, we have to have a budget based upon what is available rather than what the people of Wales need.

I will be supporting the budget today but I would be failing in my duty to my constituents if I failed to raise the serious concerns I have. Firstly, I have seen no evidence that the budget has been driven by either the programme for government or by the future generations legislation. What this budget has done, in line with all recent ones, is increase the share of the Welsh Government budget spent on health and reduce the proportion spent on local government and other services, with some protection for the economy and transport. At a recent Finance Committee meeting, Michael Trickey identified when the percentage of the Welsh budget allocated to health would reach 60 per cent if the current policy continues.

Health is, in my opinion, a misnomer. The money is allocated to health, then it goes to the health boards, then it goes mainly to hospital services. The proportion of the health budget spent on primary care is decreasing. The Royal College of General Practitioners regularly identify the relative reduction in primary care expenditure. This is affecting primary care practices. Between October 2015 and October 2018, 21 GP practices closed, 37 submitted a sustainability application to the health board, and 45 practices were at risk. Too many people are now using accident and emergency as their primary care service, which is causing huge problems in A&E. There has been discussion on prudent health: diet, obesity, exercise, not smoking, limiting alcohol intake—all reduce ill health, and I think we need to talk far more about reducing ill health than we do about trying to treat people at the end of it. Let's have fewer ill people.

The auditor general, in about 2015, produced a report on medical interventions that do no good to the patient estimated at that time at several hundred million pounds. This did not include expenditure where the operation was successful but, following hospitalisation, the individual was no longer able to look after themselves and ended up in a nursing home. Elderly people who are just about able to cope at home with community care support, too often end up in a care home after a successful operation. And I had one of my constituents who didn't end up there, thankfully, because he was only in hospital for one week—he came back having lost 10 lbs, having lost a lot of mobility, but he recovered. If he'd been in hospital another seven days, he almost certainly would have ended up in a nursing home. I think this is where one of the problems is: we treat parts of a person, not the whole person. I'm sure that a lot of elderly people, if you told them that the choice was to continue having pain with their knee or end up in a nursing home, might well decide that they can continue to live with a little bit of pain in their knee. 

The late Dr Julian Tudor Hart, with others, identified expenditure on things such as reducing slightly raised blood pressure that do no identifiable good to the patient, yet we still pay substantial sums for the medication. The First Minister, whilst health Secretary, identified the different intervention rates for the removal of tonsils between two areas in the same health board—twice as likely to have tonsils removed in one than the other.

The Nuffield Foundation produced research showing that there has been a reduction of over 25 per cent in total in-patient admissions per hospital community health services doctor between 1999-2000 and 2011-12. Now, I'm not saying health is not important, but health boards do tend to act in a vacuum, and there is an awful lot of other things happening out there that need to be dealt with. I have not got time to expand on this statement, but I believe that the current structure of health boards and the ambulance trust is less than optimum.

On the rest of the budget, local government continues to be under pressure, despite providing services that can improve lifestyle and, hence, health. The importance of community care to allow people to leave hospital and also to keep them out of hospital—. I think that we underestimate the work done by a number of relatively low-paid, predominantly women in the social care service, which keeps people in their home and gives them a good lifestyle. I think we underestimate how much use they are, and I think it's unfortunate that, because of budget pressure, too many of those have been moved out of being directly employed by local authorities and have been moved into the private sector.

Also, local government provides the services we use continually: the roads, the pavements, the rubbish collection, street cleaning, parks, libraries, as well as education. That really is, for many people, the way of improving the lifestyles and life chances of them and their families. I think that we need to talk more about providing additional resources to education, so that every child gets the opportunity to do the best they can.

Photo of Mr Neil Hamilton Mr Neil Hamilton UKIP 4:57, 15 January 2019

I'm delighted to follow Mike Hedges because I think he made some very important, as well as some very sensible points about the need to spend more on preventative health, so that we reduce the burden that the NHS is going to have in the future. I would like to see, as he would, the priority given to spending in this area increased within the current Welsh budget.

I should also welcome the Finance Minister to her post—I don't think I've had the opportunity to do that on the record in the Chamber as yet—and to congratulate her upon the assured start that she's made, both in giving evidence to the Finance Committee and today in this Chamber. I wish her well in her job, and I hope I shall be able to continue the constructive arrangement that I had with her predecessor as Finance Minister, where, from our different political perspectives, nevertheless, we can combine together to seek the common good for everybody in our country.

Against the background, of course, of so-called austerity, and given the nature of the current situation, whereby the Welsh Government is overwhelmingly dependent on a block grant from Westminster, the degree of freedom that the finance Minister of Wales has is inevitably limited, and the big ticket items are always going to gobble up the major share of the budget. Health is now half of the budget, virtually. Local government is getting £4 billion out of the current budget, and education another £2 billion. There isn't much that one can do about those figures, so what we are arguing over in these budget debates, generally, is the very small minority of discretionary spending projects that the finance Minister has to decide between.

I, personally, don't think that the Government's policy of retrenchment—the UK Government's policy, that is—is a political choice. I think it's an absolute necessity. In 2010, the Government was borrowing an amount every year equivalent to 10 per cent of our gross domestic product. That clearly was totally unsustainable, and it's had, over the years, to whittle it down. This year, it's at a more sustainable 2 per cent. I don't regard a borrowing figure of 2 per cent of GDP as austerity. I mean, that's the long-term average that the British Government has had. That is just living within your means, which everybody ultimately has to do, unless you are going to embark upon the kind of Zimbabwe policy of simply printing money, which ends up in destroying the economy eventually, because after a while, of course, you run out of other people's money to spend, effectively. So, I think that a policy of prudence, which is what Gordon Brown preached 20 years ago but then departed from disastrously in the early years of this century, is one which is vitally necessary. Having said that, Wales has fallen down the scale, as was pointed out today by my colleague Gareth Bennett, in First Minister's questions, and now languishes at the bottom of the list of nations of the UK and regions of England, having been overtaken by Northern Ireland in the last 20 years. And there is still significant pockets of poverty in Wales—it's not just the poorest part of the United Kingdom, but one of the poorest parts of western Europe—and the Resolution Foundation estimates that the poorest tenth of households in Wales will be £30 a week better off as a result of tax and benefit changes in 2019-20, which is a 0.33 per cent rise, whereas the richest tenth will be £410 a week better off—a 41 per cent rise.

So, in terms of inequality, Wales is actually going backwards rather than forwards, and the Welsh Labour Government has a policy of attempting to reduce inequality, but that is simply not happening. We know, as was pointed out earlier on by Leanne Wood in her questions, that there are pockets of unemployment in Wales that are very significant indeed. In the year to June 2018, unemployment was substantially above the Welsh average in Rhondda Cynon Taf at 7.2 per cent, Caerphilly at 7 per cent, and Cardiff, surprisingly, at 6.8 per cent. It's especially high amongst young males—14.7 per cent for Wales, rising to nearly one in four of 16 to 24-year-olds in Rhondda Cynon Taf, and 21.6 per cent in Neath Port Talbot. 

So, we still have a lot to do as a Government in Wales to alleviate poverty, and relative poverty as well. The only way we can do that, as Mark Drakeford alluded to in his response to Gareth Bennett earlier on, and as I've advocated many times before, is to grow the Welsh economy by using the new tax powers that we have imaginatively to encourage wealth creation—to encourage more rich people to come into Wales, if you like—and to set up businesses and to expand existing businesses. Fifty years ago, Singapore was a small offshore island in Malaysia with an average income of $500 a year; this year, the average income in Singapore, the richest country in the world, is $55,500. That has not happened by accident; it's happened because of the policies of the Singaporean Government.

So, I commend the finance Minister on her promising start, and I hope that she will perhaps take some of the points that I've made on board, and we'll be able to agree on more in the years to come.   

Photo of Huw Irranca-Davies Huw Irranca-Davies Labour 5:02, 15 January 2019

Can I just begin by commending, overall, the hand that the Welsh Government has played, not just in the final budget, but this year? It's been really difficult. You can only actually play the hand that you're dealt, and we're still—this isn't a political point; it's a harsh reality—in the long tail of austerity. We have a declining budget you can only use in a certain number of ways, as Neil Hamilton was just saying. You've got to make some really, really tough choices. But what's also compounded the difficulty this year is the fact—and it's interesting seeing this as somebody who's travelled down the M4 to come to this democratic institution—that the smoke and mirrors are even more apparent when the UK Government makes a grand announcement of investment in local government or in healthcare and so on, and then you find, well, they've actually already allocated significant parts of that to this, that and the other. So, it isn't a free hand for the Welsh Government to use as is; they've cut it away already.

So, actually, the course of this year, as we arrive at the final budget, has been quite difficult for Welsh Government Ministers, to deal with that complexity, the smoke and mirrors, and to make some really hard choices. Now, I agree with Mike's point that this is still tough territory for a lot of public sector organisations, not least local government. But within the hand that was dealt, I think there's been some tough but some intelligent decisions being made there. It hasn't been easy. 

But I want to turn to some of the smaller ones, first of all, because within this there are some nuggets as well. One of the interesting ones—the extra £5 million to take forward feasibility studies into a national art gallery and a national football museum—can I just put a plea in here? I know it's been mentioned, I don't whether half in jest or not, but there is a fine tradition in the democratisation of the arts to take the arts to the unexpected places, and it doesn't have to be the Guggenheim in Bilbao. It can be the Whitehall art galleries that were put deliberately in areas where working-class people would experience the best of the art. It's Tracey Emin taking her gallery out of London to Margate instead. Well, I'll tell you what, take it to Port Talbot. It's 20 minutes down the road from me, but it's exactly the population—[Interruption.] Yes, and the Banksy publicity helps with this. But take it to a place like that. Take the art to the people; democratise the art. Don't take it to the normal places and the normal people; take it somewhere else. Use that feasibility study wisely. You can do some amazing things with relatively small amounts of money here.

There's some money in here to support tree planting in Wales. A lot of people say, 'Well, that's very nice' and so on. But if you look at what they've done in the upper Llynfi valley with the Spirit of Llynfi Woodland, with a little bit of tree planting alongside engaging six GP practices in a cluster, alongside local primary and secondary schools, alongside knitters and sewers, striders and so on, it's having the effect on that 20:20 community we have, where there is a 20-year mortality difference between the top of the Llynfi and Porthcawl. It's that sort of money, invested wisely—small amounts can really make a difference.

Can I just speak up as well for Natural Resources Wales for once, because it gets so much flack in here? I know people who work within the bowels of NRW and they are passionate and committed environmentalists. This amount of money—I mean, it's been hard hit, but this will do some good there for the morale of those people, because they're passionate about our biodiversity, about tackling climate change, about the species that we have in our marine and our terrestrial environment. It's good to see these amounts of money—even the Llangrannog and Glan-llyn one, as somebody who regularly went there as a youngster and actually lost a canoe to the bottom of the lake in Bala as well. [Laughter.] Remarkable, because they said this canoe couldn't sink, it was like the Titanic, it was filled with foam. Well, I proved them wrong—went right to the bottom.

But even though it's not going to be the panacea—and I commend the work that Rhianon has been doing on promoting the case of music and music in education and music in communities as well, and also Beverley Humphreys, Beverley Humphreys of World of Music on Sunday nights on BBC Wales. As she often says from the platform, people go to sleep with her on a Sunday night. Now, Beverley uses that line, not me, right, okay. [Laughter.] But she also—whenever she stands in the hall in Porthcawl, in Maesteg town hall and so on, she always puts this case strongly. Now, that sum won't turn everything around, but it's a contribution and I just wonder, when we put that alongside the work of people like friends now, friends' groups that have come up, actually putting money into musical education and so on, what more we can do with that.

But I want to turn very briefly—. In terms of local authorities, it's welcome—the additional money that's been squeezed out of this. I think we also need to say to local authorities: make the most of the money that's going into regional partnership boards. But I think we recognise they are under tough times, and I would urge the Government, even with the funding settlement that we've had here, to continue to work with local authorities and to find not just funding ways but imaginative, creative ways that they can make all their resources go further. I think that will require Welsh Government help, regional partnership help, consortia help and doing things differently as well as putting funding in there. Thank you, Dirprwy Lywydd. 

Photo of Ann Jones Ann Jones Labour 5:08, 15 January 2019

I now call the Minister for Finance and Trefnydd to reply to the debate. 

Photo of Rebecca Evans Rebecca Evans Labour

Thank you very much, Deputy Presiding Officer and thank you to everybody who's contributed to the debate this afternoon. I think there have been several key themes that have come to the fore during the debate. Of course, the first would be austerity, because the pressures inflicted upon us by almost a decade of the UK Government's state-shrinking austerity ideology have been extremely damaging. There are firm shackles on our ability to invest in our much valued public services. We have used what little additional funding the UK Government has provided, but we of course haven't seen the end to austerity, as was promised by the Prime Minister. 

In response to Nick Ramsay, I can provide assurances that we have used consequential funding from the UK Government specifically to open up and widen our rates relief schemes, which we do provide for small businesses, because we recognise how important they are, not just to the high street but to local economies more widely. I would refute any suggestion that there is a blame game here, because the fact remains that when you ask people are they feeling the brunt and the effects of austerity in their lives, I think you don't need to have to go any further than the food banks that are popping up, up and down our country, to talk to people who are absolutely most definitely feeling the effects of austerity. They're not interested in a blame game, they're interested in what's best for their families and how they can meet their families' needs without struggle.

We often hear from the Conservatives how we have the biggest budget in cash terms. Of course it is true that the 2019-20 budget is the highest ever in cash terms, but it is a completely meaningless statement because since 1948—so, the past 70 years—public sector expenditure across the UK has increased in cash terms every single year except for one, so, in that way, every single year almost is a record-breaking year for UK public spending on that basis. However, by contrast, the UK budget allocation to Wales has actually seen cash reductions in three of the last 10 years, so that does put the challenges that we face into some kind of perspective.

The second theme, really, would be about Brexit, which we've talked about a lot over the course of the afternoon. And a decade of austerity combined with the increasingly grave threat of a 'no deal' Brexit will have a disastrous impact on Wales. We've heard today of some of the ongoing planning but also about some of the ongoing uncertainty, which really does hamper our ability to plan for next year and beyond. But we will do everything in our power to protect businesses and communities from the potential impact on our country. And, of course, I've announced some further investments this afternoon.

A third theme, really, is uncertainty, and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is compounded by wider uncertainties stemming from the UK Government's lack of action and foresight. We don't have a funding settlement beyond next year, and obviously we face then the prospect of a comprehensive spending review and, potentially, an emergency UK Government budget. So, that clearly does restrict our ability to plan ahead and to provide stability for people and organisations who depend on our support.

And the fourth theme, which I think has come out very strongly in this debate, is about investing in our public services. Despite these challenges, we do continue to deliver in difficult times, and the motion before Members today will secure a budget that provides some protection for our public services, because we are investing in our priority areas: health and social care, education and local government. And I completely recognise the challenges that local government is facing, and I know my colleague Julie James will be talking on this next in the Assembly.

But I have to say that the debate really in terms of health and local government as being in opposition to one another I don't think is helpful, because the two things rely completely on each other. I'm very grateful to Huw Irranca-Davies for mentioning regional partnership boards and the important work that's going on there about pooling budgets and making the most of resources and thinking creatively and doing things in a different way. And I think that that's where we should be turning more of our attention to in the future.

I fully take on board the points that the Chair of the Finance Committee has made in terms of the timing of Government responses to committee scrutiny, and I'd be happy to have a further conversation on that. I know that the Finance Committee has indicated that they would prefer to continue the current practice that we have of publishing the draft budget ahead of the autumn budget. I know that Welsh Government has said that they're happy to consider suggestions from the Finance Committee if they'd prefer to do it in a different way, although I think that, in Scotland, for example, they publish their budget after the autumn statement. Our concern would be that that kind of delay might make things more difficult for the partners that we have, but, irrespective of that, we do need to ensure timely responses to committees.

So, Llywydd, I look forward to tackling the opportunities and the challenges that we face together and, in doing so, I'd be very keen to continue the engagement that the First Minister has had with the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales in terms of setting budgets for future years. I know that they had some good discussions this year and they've been working together on how we define 'preventative spend', for example. I know that that's something that we're interested in right across Government.

So, to conclude, this is a budget that meets the needs of the people of Wales, and it does reinforce our vision to build a better Wales, a Wales that is prosperous and secure, healthy and active, active in learning, united and connected, with prosperity at the heart of everything that we do. It's a budget that provides protection in the face of the harmful policy of austerity and a budget that provides stability in the face of the continuing uncertainty and the prospect of a catastrophic 'no deal' Brexit. It is a budget that values and invests in our public services and a budget that I hope the Assembly will endorse this afternoon. I commend the motion to you.

Photo of Ann Jones Ann Jones Labour 5:14, 15 January 2019

Thank you very much. The proposal is to agree the motion. Does any Member object? [Objection.] We defer voting under this item until voting time.

(Translated)

Voting deferred until voting time.