8. Plaid Cymru Debate: 'No Deal' Brexit

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:47 pm on 16 January 2019.

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Photo of Mr Neil Hamilton Mr Neil Hamilton UKIP 5:47, 16 January 2019

Diolch yn fawr iawn, Llywydd. And I beg to move the amendment in Gareth's name on the agenda. Well, this is just the latest writhing of those who never accepted the result of the referendum two and half years ago. Tentatively at first, but now increasingly explicitly, they're coming forward with plans to first of all frustrate that result and, secondly, to reverse it, to remain in the single market and the customs union. Whatever infrastructure surrounds that effectively means that we do not leave the EU. That was made explicit in the referendum campaign itself, where all parties warned that if the people voted to leave, it would mean coming out of the single market, coming out of the customs union, and Armageddon would ensue just as night follows day. Well it didn't, of course, any more than it did when we had exactly the same predictions over the exchange rate mechanism when Britain was a member of that catastrophic organisation 25 years ago. When we left, of course, it opened up a new dawn that led to a period of unprecedented growth.

And I think that when we've completed this process, as I hope we will, and leave the EU, the freedoms that it will give to us will, in the medium to long term, be quite evident. The kind of Hieronymus Bosch picture that was painted by the leader of Plaid Cymru is absurd when you look at the numbers, that we will go into the most protracted recession that we've known in living memory. Does he not remember a real recession 10 years ago? Or look at Greece or Italy today if you want to see what real deprivation is.

Our exports to the European Union amounted to £274 billion last year—a very significant part of our gross domestic product, to be sure. We imported a lot more from them, of course, because we have a trade deficit with them of £67 billion a year, but nobody is talking about banning trade between the EU and the United Kingdom. The average level of tariffs in the non-agricultural sector—and agriculture is only 2 per cent of the UK's GDP, but in the non-agricultural sector, the average EU tariff is 2.6 per cent. And when you consider, as Adam Price pointed out, that there's been a devaluation of the pound since the referendum of six times that, the imposition of tariffs, if that were to happen—and I'm not in favour of tariffs; I want a free trade deal with the EU—. But if we were to have tariffs introduced on both sides then this would be a small fraction of that percentage of 16 per cent that might be affected.

Many people are trading with the EU in sectors where there would be no tariffs at all; in others, they are trivial. There are, of course, sectors, such as automobiles, where the tariff rate is 10 per cent, but we have a massive deficit in automotive materials. Eighty-six per cent of all the new car registrations in the United Kingdom last year were imported vehicles. We've lost the bulk of our automotive manufacture in the United Kingdom over the years. Germany exports to Britain one in seven of every vehicle that is manufactured in Germany. They're not going to want—they'd be foolish if they did want to see tariffs introduced between us that would inhibit trade. Germany's problems are much greater in relation to what's happening in China than anything that is likely to occur in Britain in the next 18 months. So, they've got other fish to fry, I think.

No, our interests, I think, lie not in ruling out a 'no deal', a so-called 'no deal', if we leave on 29 March without having even begun the negotiations to put something else in its place. We would leave on World Trade Organization terms, as we have with the rest of the world. Sixty per cent of our exports now go to the rest of the world, and we trade quite happily with them on WTO terms, and we cannot enter into free trade negotiations with other important trading partners, like the United States, until we leave the customs union, because the EU is the sole negotiator for every single member of the customs union.

So, there are opportunities, which were wholly neglected in the doom and gloom scenario that was painted by Adam Price in his opening speech in this debate. Britain is the fifth largest economy in the world. We are a major player in all sorts of industries, and the industries of the future, like artificial intelligence and other technological industries. London is the world's leading financial centre. That isn't going to be undermined by Britain leaving the EU on WTO terms. We have financial infrastructure in this country that is unparalleled anywhere else apart from in the United States. Frankfurt is never going to overtake London as a major financial centre. The EU will still need to use London for most of the major capital-raising activities that are needed in Europe. Of course, there will be some structural change as a result of leaving the EU, and it will be necessary for banks and other financial institutions to set up offices in the EU in order to satisfy their regulatory requirements, but this is not going to cost us anything in the longer term. Certainly, in the short term, there will be transitional costs. Everybody has always accepted that.

But if we go into the future simply believing that, as a country, we're finished, washed up, can't do anything in the world, not only do we misjudge our own people and also actually falsify our own history, but we are closing off the future of not only our younger generation currently in existence, but all future generations, because all we're seeking to do is what I would have thought Plaid Cymru want more than anything else, which is to have the right of self-government for our own country: in this case the United Kingdom, which includes Wales.