2. Questions to the Counsel General and Brexit Minister – in the Senedd at 2:32 pm on 16 January 2019.
Questions now from the party spokespeople. The Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Adam Price.
Diolch, Llywydd.
My party will be supporting the vote of no confidence tonight in Westminster. Indeed, we are signatories of the motion that will be voted on in a few hours' time. But I think it's widely accepted that the motion is unlikely to succeed. Given your Government's stated support either for a general election or a public vote as a means of breaking the parliamentary logjam, if the vote, as expected, fails tonight, does the Government then intend to make a statement tomorrow, or in the days following, supporting a public vote as the only remaining means of ending the political impasse?
Well, as the Member says, there is a motion of no confidence before the House of Commons today. I have read the same speculation as he has in relation to whether that will succeed or fail. I should say that it would be extraordinary for a UK Government to fail to get its principal policy adopted and supported in the House of Commons and then continue in Government. It would be pretty much unprecedented in recent times, certainly, and I think, in those circumstances, we should not yield the position that the Government should lose the confidence of the House of Commons in today's debate. I certainly hope that the motion will prevail.
On the broader point, our policy has been, as he is aware, and continues to be that the objective of the Prime Minister ought to be to bring before the House of Commons a deal reflecting the principles which we have, in 'Securing Wales' Future', set out, and if that is not possible, and if a general election is not possible either, then, in those circumstances, the people may have a final say as a means of resolving that situation.
I can understand generally why Ministers at the despatch box don't want to be tempted into speculation on hypotheticals, but this is a binary in relation to a vote that's only a few hours away, in the broader context of a ticking clock, down to, what is it, 73 days. So, I think the Minister will understand why we do need clarity as to what the Welsh Government is going to do in response to the almost certain result later this evening.
Now, it's plain that, in the unfolding Brexit crisis, we're running out of time. Mrs May's tactic has been to delay a decision for as long as possible—try and force a choice between her deal and no deal, and that tactic, indeed, failed last night. The key question now is whether Jeremy Corbyn is following the same tactic in trying to avoid what for him is, of course, the thorny issue of a people's vote. So, can the Counsel General at least confirm that you would not support the idea that is being floated in some circles of multiple votes of no confidence being brought in the next few weeks, which could, of course, take us perilously close to 29 March, with no hope of resolution?
I'll try again and outline our position. We have called on the Prime Minister to reach out across the House of Commons to seek to find a basis on which a better deal could be agreed. She has said yesterday that she intends to do that. She should do that, and include the opposition frontbenches in doing so. She should drop the red lines that she has insisted on—fruitlessly in many cases—for the last two years, and she should recognise that what is required is a fundamental rewrite of the political declaration, not a question of tinkering at the margins. If that fails, and if a general election is not achievable, then, in those circumstances, we have always said that a public vote is the best means of resolving that. But that requires us to give space for that discussion to take place, and we will hold the Prime Minister to her word on that being a meaningful discussion.
The UK Government has already said, following last night's vote, that it remains a red line for them—that they will refuse to accept a customs union. So, effectively, they're ruling out the kind of policy outlined in 'Securing Wales' Future'. And this is why, isn't it, that, generally, the consensus view emerging—in your party now as well; we've seen the MPs, the nine Welsh Labour MPs, who have come out unequivocally in favour of a people's vote—is that is the only means available to us of breaking the logjam and, indeed, ending the cataclysm of a 'no deal'. Your Cabinet colleague Vaughan Gething has said the time for indecision is long past and we must act now on a people's vote. The Minister for international affairs, Eluned Morgan, has made a similar commitment. Even the First Minister has said, 'I support a further referendum if all else fails'. So, when the no confidence vote fails tonight, what else is left to fail, when will we know that it's failed, and do you accept that, if the Welsh Government doesn't act quickly, clearly, decisively in response to tonight's vote, it's you that will be judged to have failed the people of Wales?
The timetable for understanding what the possible alternative deals are remains unclear at this point. I have said—I think twice now, in response to the Member's questions—that a public vote, giving the public a final say in this, may well be the means of resolving this. I would support that as a final say. But, having called for these discussions to take place, the Prime Minister having taken up that challenge, we must first allow that discussion to unfold, and we are clear about the kind of deal that we think should emerge from that. If she is saying that she still has some red lines, she has been urged, certainly, by the leading politicians in her party not to stick with a strategy that has failed her for two years.
The Conservative spokesperson, Darren Millar.
Diolch, Llywydd. Can you tell us what preparations the Welsh Government has taken to promote international trade with Wales, post Brexit?
Indeed. The First Minister, in making his new Cabinet, has included a new portfolio in relation to international relations generally, and a part of that portfolio relates to developing the relationships between Wales and the rest of the world and enhancing even further the work we do in relation to making Wales attractive as a trading destination.
I was delighted to see the new First Minister install a new Minister for international relations, following the calls from the Welsh Conservatives over a number of years. And I wonder whether you can tell us, in your capacity as Brexit Minister, what work will now be done to develop a network of trade envoys around the world, in order to promote opportunities to trade with Wales. We know that the Welsh Government, quite rightly, has worked hard on developing links with North America in recent years and that there have been a number of trade missions, but there's nothing like having people on the ground all year round in many of the Commonwealth countries, for example, or some of the emerging markets that we would have the opportunity to develop links with. So, will you also take another leaf out of our book and appoint a network of trade envoys, embedded within British embassies around the world, to make sure that the distinctive voice of Welsh businesses is being heard?
There's already a network of presence in key territories around the world. That has been in place for some time. That's obviously been strengthened latterly. We think, very clearly, that the best future trading relationships for Wales are those that are derived from full participation in, alignment with and membership of a customs union with the European Union. But we are very keen to ensure that we take every possible opportunity to advance the cause of Wales internationally in relation to it as a destination for investment and trading opportunities for our businesses here in exporting in circumstances which, if we end up being outside the European Union, will be significantly more difficult for them.
We are, or I hope we will be, outside the European Union, because that's what the people of Wales absolutely voted for. But do you agree with me that it is a matter of concern that our trade with countries like India and Japan has been falling in recent years, and will you welcome the decision of the Japanese Government, as a result of the work of the British Government in relation to beef and lamb exports, which now opens up opportunities for Welsh farmers to be able to sell their beef and lamb to the Japanese market of 127 million people? Would you agree with me that there are opportunities for trade envoys, if they are embedded within British embassies, to make sure that this sort of success can be repeated and that further opportunities can come for Welsh businesses as a result?
We obviously always welcome additional export markets for Welsh produce and so that is to be welcomed. I note that the export sums that have been described in the announcement are significant, but I'm also bound to say that consumers in Japan are going to have to eat an awful lot of lamb and beef to make up for the restrictions to the market that we would suffer as a consequence of Brexit.
The UKIP spokesperson, Neil Hamilton.
Diolch, Llywydd. Instead of still arguing over the different ways in which the Brexit referendum result can be betrayed and reversed, isn't now the time to think practically about the way forward and to revert to the offer that Donald Tusk made to Theresa May some time ago to embark upon discussions to bring about a Canada-style free trade agreement, which would have the advantage of delivering on the referendum result—the people of the United Kingdom and the people of Wales both voted to leave unequivocally two and a half years ago—and would also maximise the opportunities for trade with the EU that nobody wants to sacrifice on either side of the English channel?
I had the opportunity to meet, whilst I was a member of the Economy, Skills and Infrastructure Committee, with the Canadian delegation to the European Union and heard from them at first hand the experience that they had in negotiating the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement deal with the European Union, which has been described by many as essentially a walk in the park, but they will describe to you a very, very long and painstaking project. So, I think that the notion that we are going to be able to replicate that sort of deal with the European Union is, I think, fantasy.
We have been very clear about the relationship that we think that Wales would benefit from post Brexit with the European Union, and that is set out in 'Securing Wales' Future' and it remains our position, and I think, even on the Government's own figures, the flexibility that they describe from additional capacity to enter into free trade agreements internationally is completely dwarfed by the economic damage that losing out on the existing trading relationships that we have between the EU and the rest of the world would represent.
I'm afraid that because the Counsel General had his back to me at the end I didn't catch exactly what he said. Canada, of course, started from a very different position to the United Kingdom. We have been a member of the EU for the last 40-odd years, and we have complete regulatory alignment with them because, obviously, we have the same code of law and regulation. There should be no difficulty in reaching a free trade agreement with the EU. But, in any event, would the Counsel General agree with me that article 24 of the general agreement on tariffs and trade treaty, which is now the World Trade Organization treaty, once we've entered into negotiations with the EU, in the short term will enable us to continue to trade with the EU on zero tariffs whilst negotiating the Canada-style deal?
I'm not entirely sure I understand what the Member's position was. I had thought that he had spent the referendum campaign arguing for maximum flexibility and not having to be subject to regulatory alignment with the European Union. He now seems to be advocating that as a positive benefit.
No, not at all. Of course not. All I'm saying is that we wouldn't experience, in the negotiation, the difficulties that he alluded to, as alleged by the Canadians to whom he spoke a little while ago. We don't have to negotiate from a position where we have no agreements with the EU at all. We are actually part of it, so it should be much more simple for us to enter into a longer term agreement, not least because we have a £67 billion a year trade deficit with the EU at the moment. It's as much in their interests to trade with us as freely as possible as it is for us to trade with them. True, the European Commission has different interests from the people and businesses of Europe because they are engaged in their massive political integration project at the expense of the people of Europe, as the euro project itself amply demonstrates, and the ruination it's brought to many countries in southern Europe.
Well, I'm just bound to say that businesses up and down Wales concerned about their exports after Brexit would just simply not share the Member's view. Looking at even the UK Government's own figures, as I mentioned earlier, they show that any conceivable additional value to the economy from increased flexibility, as they would describe it, is completely dwarfed by the hit to the economy from the loss of markets.