Let nobody underestimate the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit—the impact that a 'no deal' Brexit will have on individual citizens and families. That includes, of course, European Union nationals living and working in the UK, or UK nationals, including many Welsh citizens, who have taken advantage of freedom of movement to live and work in the European Union. All will be affected.

Apart from the uncertainty over reciprocal healthcare and settled status arrangements, a 'no deal' Brexit will inevitably lead to a tighter health and social care labour market across the UK. That will make it even harder for us to compete for staff, and of course a likely rise in costs. A 'no deal' Brexit will have a profound impact on all professions and all health and social care staff. The effect of changes to migration policy, particularly a policy that favours high skills and wages, will be most keenly felt in those parts of our health and social care sector that depend on relatively low-paid workers, such as workers providing domiciliary or residential care, who have a central role supporting some of the most vulnerable people in our society. So, let's be clear: disruption in our social care sector would not just affect vulnerable citizens within social care, it would inevitably lead to delayed discharges from hospitals and increased pressure upon our hospitals. That means pressure on our staff and on citizens themselves who still require health and social care.

The Welsh Government has been clear that a 'no deal' Brexit would cause serious and unavoidable harm to our health and care services, and that harm would extend to all sectors, including, of course, the at least 1,400 European Union nationals who we know work in our national health service. If we are to leave the European Union with minimum harm to our health and social care services, then there must be the certainty of a deal that ensures full and continued and unfettered access to the single market, and the development of a new migration system that links migration more closely to employment, whilst protecting those employees themselves from exploitation.

I'd now like to focus on the work that we have been doing to mitigate some of the substantial and known risks of a 'no deal' Brexit. We've been working closely with the NHS, the local authorities, professional and representative bodies to plan and prepare wherever possible. To support social care providers, we have commissioned Ipsos MORI to assess the composition of the social care and childcare workforce here in Wales. That research will help us to identify how many European Union workers are employed in the sector, so that we can support them and their employers, and it will also facilitate cost-effective planning for areas or roles where vulnerabilities are identified. 

I started my statement this afternoon by referring to reports of medicine shortages. We have been focusing work on ensuring the availability of a supply of medicines, medical devices and clinical consumables in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit. In terms of medicines, as I said, we are essentially reliant on the work being undertaken by the UK Government and the pharmaceutical industry to ensure that stocks and dedicated transport routes are available. However, we are being rigorous in our interrogation of the data that is made available from the UK Government about the medicines most likely to be affected or where there is insufficient assurance from manufacturers. In terms of medical devices and clinical consumables—everything from pacemakers to incontinence pads to surgical gloves—we will use UK arrangements where that is the right thing to do, but we will also take additional steps where we have areas of concern, or where we feel we can provide the additional certainty that we need here in Wales. In doing so, we are considering how we look beyond 29 March, and to try to secure some lasting value from the measures that we are having to take to prepare for a 'no deal' Brexit.

I was pleased to welcome yesterday the publication of a very thorough and considered analysis by Public Health Wales about how Brexit could impact on all aspects of health and well-being in Wales over the short, medium and long term. The report focuses on the distinct political, social, cultural and economic challenges that Brexit poses to Wales. It will provide an invaluable reference and evidence base for service and community leaders as we move forward into even more uncertain times and the possibility of new international relationships. This is the only health impact assessment of Brexit that's been published anywhere within the UK. It is a further demonstration of how we're taking what we can from UK arrangements but also going further where that is the right thing to do.

Both of these initiatives are vitally important to our overall contingency plans and we will provide the additional assurance that we can, as we are as prepared as we reasonably can be, but, as yet, we still don’t know what form Brexit will take, with only nine weeks to go.