We rely on the EU for imports too. Chemicals, including some of those that help us provide clean water, veterinary medicines, and more than four fifths of our food imports, accounting for half of the food we eat in the UK, come from the EU. All are tariff free and produced to standards we understand and expect. If we leave the EU without a deal, there will be no orderly or phased transition, and 40 years of integrated EU legislation, systems, funding and free trade will come to an end overnight. Our exporters and importers will face significant increases in prices, administration and delivery time. Tariffs are likely to be applied to imports and exports. A drop in sterling caused by a 'no deal' Brexit could mitigate some tariff costs for importers but contribute to higher food prices for consumers as import costs increase.

There is no good news for exports either in a 'no deal' scenario under WTO rules, which hard Brexiteers celebrate. Processed foods could attract tariffs of around 15 per cent and other products could exceed 50 per cent, with red meat attracting particularly high tariffs. Our businesses will have to develop their capacity to handle previously unnecessary red tape, including customs declarations, export health certificates or fisheries catch certificates. Document, identity and physical checks will be carried out at the border with the EU for products of animal origin and live animals arriving from the UK. This will inevitably cause delays, potentially ruining fresh food and live shellfish. Even the wooden pallets on which goods are transported will require certification and checks.

Our EU labour force is important to Wales. Almost all Government vets working in our abattoirs are European citizens from other EU countries, as are many workers in food processing more generally. We cannot afford for these essential workers to leave the UK at a time of exponential growth in demand for export health certificates post Brexit. The impacts of a 'no deal' Brexit will be felt differently across Wales. Our rural communities will clearly bear the brunt of any loss of markets, especially in the red meat sector. Our coastal communities will suffer if seafood businesses are unable to viably export shellfish. Although diversifying into different types of farming or fishing could lessen the impact, it will not make up for the loss of, or impeded access to, the EU market. All of this combines to create a perfect storm, which will begin on 30 March and last for an unknown length of time. The severity of that storm will depend on the type of deal we leave with. A 'no deal' storm will be the most damaging for Wales.

As a Government we've been working since the EU referendum to prepare for Brexit in whatever form. Across my portfolio, we've reviewed 1,200 pieces of legislation. With the UK Government we are in the process of amending 900 pieces of legislation in an unprecedented exercise to ensure we have a working statue book by exit day. This will make sure the framework of EU environmental legislation, within which we have developed our own ambitious plans for the environment, climate and future generations, continue to be available to us. The National Assembly has played, and will continue to play, an important part in developing and passing this legislation, and Wales will gain more powers in environment, agriculture and fisheries after Brexit.

We have been working to ensure the necessary systems are in place to meet newly applied EU requirements on third countries, as we will be after Brexit, or to replace soon-to-be-inaccessible EU-run systems. This includes systems for chemical approvals, for export health certificates, for catch certifications and training for additional vets. My officials are running more than 50 projects to put in place the necessary arrangements. To meet the shortened timescales and ensure this is in place by exit day, much of this has been delivered in conjunction with the other UK administrations, especially the UK Government departments DEFRA, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and the Health and Safety Executive. However, future decision making in many of these areas will fall to Welsh Ministers and ultimately to this Assembly.

We continue to provide advice and information to businesses, and last week the Welsh Government launched the Preparing Wales/Paratoi Cymru website. I am committed to working with key sectors to design support mechanisms around these serious challenges, and we've already provided £6 million from our transition fund to this end. My officials are working closely with the UK Government on emergency planning to safeguard our food supply, ensure an uninterrupted energy supply and, with Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water and Hafren Dyfrdwy, secure our water supply.

Whilst there are some opportunities from Brexit in the future, I am deeply concerned at the immediate turmoil that will ensue, and I want to ensure the survival of our sectors. I'm concerned by the evidence from the CBI, FSB and others suggesting that many businesses are not yet actively preparing for Brexit and for a 'no deal' Brexit. Some will think they are immune from Brexit as they do not export or import, but because our economy is so integrated with the EU, the economic impacts will affect their suppliers and customers alike. There is a great deal of change to come, and in the event of a no deal, this will likely hit hard on multiple fronts at the same time. Some of this is for Government to manage. However, faced with a threat of this scale, we can only do so much. Businesses must also act, and quickly, because the scale of the challenge cannot be underestimated.