The language in the statement doesn't help, of course—

'fanatical insistince of hardline Brexiteers that no deal is an acceptable outcome.'

Of course, there's the fanatical insistence of hardline remainers that we should do everything possible to undermine the referendum result. That sort of language doesn't really get us anywhere, but the reason why we have these fanatical insisters on both sides of the argument is that nobody trusts the Prime Minister. Half the argument is that they fear that she is going to take us out of the European Union without a deal, and the other half is fearful that we're actually going to be kept inside the EU. It's the deliberate, calculated obscurity of the Prime Minister in her language that has produced this outcome, and which is the most toxic element in this mix. So, to that extent, I can accept what the First Minister has said today.

But continued access to 40 trade deals is not going to be vital to our future as a nation. What are these trade deals that the EU has managed in its 50-odd year history to negotiate? San Marino, Andorra, the Bailiwick of Guernsey, the Isle of Man, the Bailiwick of Jersey, Monaco, and now we've got Serbia, Montenegro and Albania, Moldova, Georgia. Well, these are all worthy deals that could be done, but apart from Mexico, with whom the EU agreed a deal some years ago, and most recently Japan only this year, Canada and so on, then the EU—[Interruption.] It'll be far easier for us than for the EU, because the EU is a protectionist conspiracy, whereas we are not.

And free trade deals are actually a dart that is aimed right at the heart of the EU, as the decision of Japanese car companies recently proved, because one of the elements in Honda's decision has been that with a free trade deal with the EU, they can now have tariff-free access to the EU markets, but they don't actually need to produce inside the EU. So, that's shut them all up a bit over there, hasn't it? So, yes, free trade deals are an important part of Britain's future outside the EU, which is why membership of the customs union is incompatible with it. 

Now, from the First Minister's statement today, you would think that the whole British economy is, to use his phrase, going over a cliff. But latest Office for National Statistics market data published this week show that in the last quarter of 2018, 167,000 more people have been employed; that's 440,000 more people in work in the United Kingdom in the course of the calendar year 2018. The employment rate is therefore the highest ever—60,000 fewer people in zero-hours contracts, the lowest unemployment since 1974—unemployment fell 100,000 in 2018. Wages have gone up by 3.4 per cent, 1.3 per cent in real terms, and yet when the referendum result was announced and, indeed, before it, the predictions were that the whole economy was going into a black pit. And the predictions of the Treasury at the time were that unemployment in Britain would be 500,000 to 800,000 higher than it was in May 2018. So much for the Treasury forecasts, which are no more than political propaganda by our arch-remainer Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Another interesting development in the last few days is that Italy is now seeking a separate Brexit deal with Britain, because they recognise the importance to them of a 'no deal' Brexit from the EU. FoodDrinkEurope have said that

'The exit of the UK from the EU without a deal will constitute a lose-lose situation for the entire agri-food chain.'

The impact will be immediate and harsh. There are two sides to this argument, of course—the EU and the UK. The UK has said right at the start and, indeed, Mr Tusk said right at the start that he wanted to offer a free trade deal with the UK. The Prime Minister has refused to take up that option, and the intransigence of Juncker and Barnier on the other hand has kept this solution away from the negotiating table. That is the way forward for Britain. 

There is a world outside the EU. The EU is only 15 per cent of the world economy compared with 30 per cent 30 years ago, and it will be half that again in 30 years' time. The growth in the world is occurring in those parts of the world to which the car companies are now relocating, and not only from Britain, because Honda is closing its Honda Civic production line in Turkey, and may actually close its entire operations there. And Turkey is inside the customs union. Donald Trump is talking about imposing a 25 per cent tariff on EU exporters of cars to the United States because we insist on having a 10 per cent tariff against American cars, whereas they have only a 2.5 per cent tariff in return. The German car industry will certainly feel the wind of change if that happens, and as Britain buys one in seven of every vehicle that is made in Germany, a 'no deal' Brexit will also be a severe difficulty for them as the German economy has now been in recession for two quarters—something that they've not experienced for a great many years—whereas Britain remains open for business to the growth industries of the future. A £400 million tech fund was established this week in London by the Abu Dhabi state investor Mubadala Investment Company and Softbank, because the UK is the global capital of technical innovation. These are the industries of the future that we should be concentrating on. These are the opportunities that open up to us after Brexit. I don't want a 'no deal' Brexit—I want to have a free trade agreement with the European Union, I always have—but the failure to talk turkey about these issues is now something which is going to be a big problem for us.

The other big problem for the car industry, of course, is diesel. And it's the EU's and the United Kingdom and the Welsh Government's policy on emissions that is one of the biggest problems for the European car manufacturers. That's one of the major reasons behind Nissan's reason for abandoning production in Sunderland—because nobody is going to want diesel cars in a very short time, and yet these are the current production lines.

So, I do wish that the First Minister would be more balanced in his statements. Yes, there are going to be problems of transition from leaving the EU. Even more so with a 'no deal'—the fault for which, I believe, lies first and foremost in 10 Downing Street. But there are opportunities there as well, and continually talking down the British economy is not the way forward, and certainly not the way forward if you have an interest in the well-being of the Welsh people.