Last week, Dirprwy Lywydd, we witnessed the contrived drama of Mrs May’s last-minute dash to Strasbourg to hail a new set of recycled commitments from the EU-27. These commitments were already implicit or explicit in the withdrawal agreement agreed in November and which the Prime Minister reneged on in January. We then looked on in amazement as she failed to secure the endorsement of her own law officer for the claims that she had made.

And, by demonstrating the truth—that the EU-27 had done all they could to make the deal acceptable without abandoning the EU principles of solidarity between member states and respect for the single market—the Prime Minister has helped the EU-27 show that any irretrievable breakdown of these negotiations is down to the political mismanagement of the Tory Government.

The result is that we are now at the cliff edge. There is no guarantee that the Prime Minister’s blackmail Brexit will pay off. If, as now seems likely, she asks for the article 50 extension without any clear plan, it is by no means certain that the EU-27 will achieve the unanimity necessary to agree it. If they do, they may set conditions, including the requirement to hold European elections in two months’ time, which the UK Government in turn may refuse.

And, even if an extension is agreed, we will be in unknown territory. Far too often in this process, Dirprwy Lywydd, the myopic little Englanders of the Brexit movement forget that there are two Parliaments that have to ratify any deal. The European Parliament has to vote on it by 18 April—its last plenary session before its election—or the process will need to start with a new and potentially very different European Parliament later in the year.

Now, even without the intervention of the Speaker of the House of Commons yesterday, it was clear that the Prime Minister had run out of road. By the third day of votes last week, her Cabinet had splintered. The Brexit Secretary closed the debate by putting forward the motion for the extension and urging MPs not to vote as he himself intended, alongside five other Cabinet Ministers.

The Secretary of State for Wales took the precaution of voting twice: once for, and once against the motion in the name of his own Prime Minister. That motion was only passed with the votes of the opposition. We have a Government that continues to suffer defeat after defeat, a Cabinet as divided as ever, and a Prime Minister unable to unite her own party, and certainly not the nation. On the single most important issue for that Government, there is no leadership, no collective responsibility and no control. 

Surely, Dirprwy Lywydd, the moment has arrived when the Government, with or without the Prime Minister, has to change course to build a cross-party consensus—not to try to peel off a handful of rebels and malcontents, but by securing the support of party leaders from across the House of Commons—and to make that the basis on which we seek an extension to article 50.

But, Dirprwy Lywydd, this will not happen if the Government and the bulk of Tory MPs are painted into a corner by the Prime Minister’s red lines: 'no' to the single market; 'no' to a customs union; 'no' to a sensible approach to migration. The disastrous strategy set out in her Lancaster House speech is being played out to its disastrous conclusion. We have worked hard to prepare Wales for the prospect of a 'no deal' Brexit, but there is only so much we can do to mitigate what would be an unmitigated disaster for Wales.

We continue to represent our national interest at every opportunity. Vaughan Gething last week attended the first four nations ministerial health meeting. We have held meetings this week of our own Cabinet and our own Cabinet sub-committee on EU transition. The Counsel General and Brexit Minister will be speaking to David Lidington this afternoon, having met MEPs in Strasbourg last week.

Now, Dirprwy Lywydd, as I’ve made clear repeatedly in this Chamber, in our view, there are two ways in which progress could be made. We continue to advocate the policy we have taken ever since the referendum: a form of Brexit that puts the economic interests of our country ahead of political posturing and grandstanding, and which puts jobs before grandiloquent but empty phrases about taking control of our money, our borders and our laws. And, Dirprwy Lywydd, not only is our plan right in principle, but we believe it is deliverable in practice. Renegotiating the political declaration in this fashion, by committing to participation in a customs union and the single market, together with dynamic alignment with the social, environmental and labour market standards of the European Union, would be welcomed, as we know, by the EU27 and, we believe, could be achieved quickly and outside the withdrawal agreement itself.

Last week, this Welsh Government published draft clauses to show how such changes could be anchored in primary legislation—another example of Wales injecting creative solutions into an otherwise deadlocked process. That deadlock, Dirprwy Lywydd, is the product of the toxic mixture of incompetence and intransigence that has become the hallmark of the UK Government. It is because it is so difficult to have faith in its ability to secure an orderly Brexit that we continue to support a second public vote if that deadlock cannot otherwise be broken. That is the position we have set out in this Chamber, and I repeat it again today, but no-one, as we know, should assume that it would be straightforward.

A second vote is a proposition that is yet to secure a majority in the House of Commons. It would require a longer extension than 30 June, with all that it implies for European elections. And a second referendum campaign would be fought in a way that would inevitably be divisive. But let me reiterate again: if the House of Commons decides that a public vote is the way through the morass that has been created, then the Welsh Government will support that course of action.

Dirprwy Lywydd, we stand on the very precipice of the cliff. With just 10 days before we are due to leave the European Union, there is no deal, and there is very little sign from the Prime Minister of a willingness or a plan to find a new deal. Let her change course. Let her put the needs of the country before those of her fractured party. Let her reach out to others who are willing to help, and let her do it before it is all too late.