The UK Government has squandered literally billions of pounds on 'no deal' preparations, on hiring new staff who now have little or nothing to do, on designing information technology systems we may never need and, most notoriously, on chartering ferry capacity from a company with no ships and then paying more than £30 million in compensation to aggrieved competitors, all in a vain effort to bolster the Prime Minister’s assertion that a 'no deal' outcome was acceptable—part of her failed negotiating strategy that keeping 'no deal' on the table strengthened her position when in reality it was only intended to keep her backbench colleagues at bay. But while at one level much appears to have changed, we should be in no doubt that the fundamentals remain the same.

There is, as yet, no majority in Parliament for any clear way forward. The negotiations between Government and opposition remain crucial. Both parties must engage fully, responsibly and creatively. The Government appears to view the negotiations with the opposition as an opportunity to try to sell its deal rather than to find a compromise—a compromise that, at the bare minimum, needs to involve a commitment to a permanent customs union and enshrining the Chequers commitments to regulatory alignment. Even more importantly, businesses still have no certainty about the long-term future—investment is on hold or being cancelled and jobs are being lost. This is the real damage of the Prime Minister’s disastrous handling of Brexit: livelihoods being lost, the economic prospects of whole communities being threatened and long-term damage to the future credibility of the UK as a major global player. And that looks set to continue. Because while the article 50 extension is welcome, it also entails considerable dangers. It’s tempting to agree with Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator, that six months is

‘too near for a substantial rethink of Brexit and at the same time too far away to prompt any action’.

The split in the Tory party is becoming a chasm, with the Prime Minister in office but not in power. Discontent and disillusion with politics and politicians is growing, with more than half the population, apparently, wanting a strong leader who breaks the rules, and nearly three quarters believing our democratic system needs significant reform.

There is a real risk that, rather than making decisive progress, the six months will be spent in Tory bloodletting, continued Parliamentary stasis and a European election, which, though Welsh Labour has every reason to be confident about it, will be bitter and divisive. It is already more than a month since 29 March. Before we know it, it will be September and we will be no further forward and facing a new cliff edge—that must not be allowed to happen.

What we need is clear: real progress on the cross-party negotiations, or a speedy recognition that the Government is not prepared to move sufficiently to gain the support of the opposition, and, in parallel, serious, meaningful negotiations with the devolved administrations to shape an acceptable deal; if there is no agreement, one further opportunity for Parliament to find a majority for a way forward; and preparations for a potential referendum, including draft legislation and the other steps required under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

As a Welsh Government, we will do all that we can to press both the UK Government and the opposition to take these critically important steps.