Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:31 pm on 30 April 2019.
And we end where, I suspect, the Member would have preferred to begin. I'm glad he welcomes the opportunity to discuss the issue in the Chamber. He talks about the loss of democratic influence as a consequence of leaving the European Union, and that is inevitably the case. But if I am presented with the choice between the kind of hard Brexit that he evidently favours and the kind of Brexit that I've been describing, which, whilst it comes at the cost of direct political influence, does what it can, outside the European Union, to protect the jobs and livelihoods of the people of Wales—we on these benches will always choose that second option.
His antipathy to a customs union is predicated on the positive alternative of a flourishing UK trade policy, entering magnificently into free trade agreements with grateful nations across the world that felt shut out by our relationship with the European Union. We were promised 40 trade deals by the point of exit day. We are now on 29 April, and we have eight mutual recognition agreements, none of which—apart from one—makes any significant contribution to Welsh exports, thus imperiling not just the 60 per cent of Welsh exports that go to the European Union, but the 10 per cent of Welsh exports that go to countries that are the subject of those trade deals. It harks back to some fictitious past when we had a fantastic capacity to negotiate an independent trade agreement, which is simply not a reflection of the political realities of the UK for decades, perhaps even a century or more. And it is a dangerous folly to persuade people, or seek to persuade people, that that is a responsible alternative future to describe to them.
He finishes by talking about the impact on the poor. Well, all I will say to him is that the kind of Brexit that he favours, by any measure, will lead to an economy in Wales that is between 8 per cent and 10 per cent smaller than it would have been otherwise. And that is not just a number on a graph, it is not just a statistic, it's not just a mathematical calculation—it's jobs, it's livelihoods, it's standards of living, it's communities, it's organisations, right across Wales. We will always stand up for those people.